The 2.5 goal market trial...
- Thread starter paulb164
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paulb164
Colt
Finished 1-0, and a dire game to watch. I can see why neither team were in the top half of the table going into this match.
And what a great stadium they played in, but which was barely attended by the fans ! I doubt it was more than 10% full - what team wants to play to such a small audience in a big stadium like that ?
And what a great stadium they played in, but which was barely attended by the fans ! I doubt it was more than 10% full - what team wants to play to such a small audience in a big stadium like that ?
paulb164
Colt
The Swedish games - again, apply judgement as this league is 2-3 rounds (depending on the match) away from season end;
So... applying said judgement... the above qualifier has the away team in 4th (but only on goal difference, and just 3 points between them and table toppers Malmoe) playing the bottom team. Both teams have something to play for - AIK are a place away from Euro qualification, while Falkenbergs still bottom are only 4 points from safety and with only 1 point in it across all the teams in the relegation zone. While AIK have a good away record (21:14 goals scored/conceded), Falkenbergs have a pretty respectable defensive home record of 9:15 - i.e. only letting in a little over a goal a game but scoring less than a goal a game. Both teams appear tight at the back in their respective H/A records... statistics support a low-scoring match prediction, and if the odds start below 1.85 then I will have a punt.
So... applying said judgement... the above qualifier has the away team in 4th (but only on goal difference, and just 3 points between them and table toppers Malmoe) playing the bottom team. Both teams have something to play for - AIK are a place away from Euro qualification, while Falkenbergs still bottom are only 4 points from safety and with only 1 point in it across all the teams in the relegation zone. While AIK have a good away record (21:14 goals scored/conceded), Falkenbergs have a pretty respectable defensive home record of 9:15 - i.e. only letting in a little over a goal a game but scoring less than a goal a game. Both teams appear tight at the back in their respective H/A records... statistics support a low-scoring match prediction, and if the odds start below 1.85 then I will have a punt.
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paulb164
Colt
Well, AIK certainly wanted that win more than Falkenbergs with a final result 1-5 ! Certainly glad I never touched that game with any bet ! The 1.85 odds filter did it's job, and discounted this game as a qualifier as well.
Next round of Brasil Serie A games;
I'm not convinced with Santos (5th) v Avai (19th), but the other qualifier International (6th) v Vasco de Gama (11th) looks to be a much tighter affair. again, if either game starts with odds under 1.85 then I'll have a punt on them.
Next round of Brasil Serie A games;
I'm not convinced with Santos (5th) v Avai (19th), but the other qualifier International (6th) v Vasco de Gama (11th) looks to be a much tighter affair. again, if either game starts with odds under 1.85 then I'll have a punt on them.
paulb164
Colt
This weekends games...
Apologies, as the first game for the Chinese league has played, and would have qualified not only with it's high score of 8.5 (the highest I think it's managed in the whole of the trial), and also because of the filter including it as well - the final result was 2-1.
Again, caution needs to be applied as this league is just 4 rounds from the end, but it is quite tight for the top 3 teams at the top and any of them can mathematically win, so games with their involvement would be worth considering.
Apologies, as the first game for the Chinese league has played, and would have qualified not only with it's high score of 8.5 (the highest I think it's managed in the whole of the trial), and also because of the filter including it as well - the final result was 2-1.
Again, caution needs to be applied as this league is just 4 rounds from the end, but it is quite tight for the top 3 teams at the top and any of them can mathematically win, so games with their involvement would be worth considering.
paulb164
Colt
that's true... I am considering setting up a somewhat automated XLS file to pick more on the basis of this trial's parameters... I would slightly increase the amount of games it back-checks from 4 to 5, and it might be worth concentrating on specific leagues based on their goal regularity i.e. the trial picked 11 games from the Swedish league, which is a very middle of the road league for goals - and of which only 3 games qualified using the 1.85 filter. That's a lot of manual labour on my part just to arrive at 3 games since the trial started a couple of months ago....... things look a lot healthier Paul with the 1.85 filter added. Quite a decent strike rate too!
The Chinese league on the other hand (a much higher league goal average) picked 18 games, which reduced to 14 games with the filter... and produced a much higher strike rate and return. The same goes for the Brasil games (with a typically low average), with 13 games picked reduced to 10 with filter. All this suggests that the system has a better chance of picking the unders/overs when the leagues have bias towards one or the other (obvious when you think about it, but the trial was useful to prove the point).
paulb164
Colt
Yup... that Swedish league (with it's current goal average per game of 2.69) is making quite a dent in the profits of this trial. Up until now it was a little lower at around the 2.5 goals mark, and it was that average that prompted me to use it for this trial and see how it fared. I suspected that the trial might have problems picking winners with the average being close to on the edge of the unders/overs 2.5 goal market, and it proved to be the case.
Here's the breakdown of the trial so far (note - there are a couple of qualifiers not played as yet and so not included in the P/L figures);
With just under 50 trial picks, I can moderately assume that the system has a better chance of picking winners if the leagues are historically low or high-averaging goals per game records. The filter makes a big difference to both the amount of picks it allows to place bets on, and also the profitability of the system.
Is 48 system picks enough to draw conclusions on the effectiveness of a trial ? Who knows - I generally prefer a minimum of 100 results to offer an opinion on any system, but I am confident that with the right leagues to work with, and the odds filter in place, I reckon it should make money - how much will only be known over time. It's also worth noting that I didn't follow the staking plan strictly as per the original system - it suggested that the higher the score above or below -5/5, the more I should increase the stake - I preferred to keep to straight 1pt stakes. Looking at the results, I'm glad I did, as the higher scores themselves didn't look to have any real baring on the likelihood of the pick success, and the P/L would have suffered.
If I continue using this system (with a couple of tweaks), then potentially good leagues would be;
High-averages; Dutch Eredivisie, German Bundesliga 1 and 2, Austrian Bundesliga, Dutch Eerste Divisie, Swiss Challenge league, Denmark 1 division, Italy Serie A - all of which are major leagues that currently average 2.8+ goals per game
Low-averages; France Ligue 1 and 2, Argentina Superliga, Egypt Premier - all of which currently average under 2.2 goals per game.
Here's the breakdown of the trial so far (note - there are a couple of qualifiers not played as yet and so not included in the P/L figures);
With just under 50 trial picks, I can moderately assume that the system has a better chance of picking winners if the leagues are historically low or high-averaging goals per game records. The filter makes a big difference to both the amount of picks it allows to place bets on, and also the profitability of the system.
Is 48 system picks enough to draw conclusions on the effectiveness of a trial ? Who knows - I generally prefer a minimum of 100 results to offer an opinion on any system, but I am confident that with the right leagues to work with, and the odds filter in place, I reckon it should make money - how much will only be known over time. It's also worth noting that I didn't follow the staking plan strictly as per the original system - it suggested that the higher the score above or below -5/5, the more I should increase the stake - I preferred to keep to straight 1pt stakes. Looking at the results, I'm glad I did, as the higher scores themselves didn't look to have any real baring on the likelihood of the pick success, and the P/L would have suffered.
If I continue using this system (with a couple of tweaks), then potentially good leagues would be;
High-averages; Dutch Eredivisie, German Bundesliga 1 and 2, Austrian Bundesliga, Dutch Eerste Divisie, Swiss Challenge league, Denmark 1 division, Italy Serie A - all of which are major leagues that currently average 2.8+ goals per game
Low-averages; France Ligue 1 and 2, Argentina Superliga, Egypt Premier - all of which currently average under 2.2 goals per game.
paulb164
Colt
Not a great weekend for the system, with only 2 of the 6 qualifiers coming through. The odds filter didn't come to the rescue either with all 6 games below 1.85 odds. I always feel that near the end of any season, that different priorities kick in with some games considered dead rubbers by some teams due to being safe from relegation but unable to win anything, unmotivated players, managers dropping in other players and resting others, etc. and which is why I suggested caution recently with the picks themselves.
I will run out the leagues for the sake of the trial, but won't personally be putting any money on the picks.
I will run out the leagues for the sake of the trial, but won't personally be putting any money on the picks.
paulb164
Colt
the weekend's Swedish games - this is the last round of the season... all 3 of the top 3 teams can mathematically with the league, and none of them have difficult opposition or anyone that will gain much by making a concerted effort. AIK in 4th place could also get into the Euro places, so will also be looking for the win;
The team currently topping the table (Djurgaardens) need only a draw to secure the title, so I personally won't back them... the next 3 (Malmoe, Hammarby and AIK all need to win to achieve anything, so I will put a sneaky treble on those to win)
The team currently topping the table (Djurgaardens) need only a draw to secure the title, so I personally won't back them... the next 3 (Malmoe, Hammarby and AIK all need to win to achieve anything, so I will put a sneaky treble on those to win)
