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The 2.5 goal market trial...

paulb164

Colt
Been trawling through the dreaded internet looking for new football angles to give me another potential stream, and came across a curious formula that a punter uses to calculate the over/under 2.5 goals of a game. Not one to miss out on a trial where I can put together an XLS to do the sums for me... I thought it was worth a paper-testing trial run. And also it's worth finding a good system on this market as the odds tend to waver around evens, which is quite good compared to my usual betting picks.
The formula works on awarding - and + points between the 2 teams based on their last 4 games' results... I'm a bit dubious that 4 games each will give a fair reflection of each team's performance, but won't know until I try it I guess.
I will test it on the Swedish Allsvenskan and the Chinese Super League - I picked these as the Swedish league has an average of 2.48 goals a game, so don't expect the system to pick many games. The Chinese league on the other hand is at 2.89 goals per game, so ought to offer more potentials (at least for the over 2.5's). The scoring works on if it goes below -4.5 then it is a candidate for the under 2.5 goal market, and a score of over 4.5 for the over 2.5 market.
These are the calculations for the upcoming games including today's;

74260

74261

Interesting to note that the first 2 Swedish games finished with 3 goals in each, which since their match scoring put them in that threshold buffer between -4.5 and +4.5, they were deemed to be avoided.
 
Hi paulb164 paulb164 Here's a site that I use when betting on football. I generally just concentrate on the Premiership and Championship with O/U & Corner bets. Best used with Opera browser and Ad-blocker. You might like to cross reference with it....good luck with this thread.
 

paulb164

Colt
thanks @Retreiver, I used to use Forebets and Soccervista to validate my bet choices but found that they both had conflicted opinions from each other from time to time. Forebets did seem to have a better goal prediction though, and I did use that site for a while just as a base for an over 1.5 goal bet plan until I got my own Excel spreadsheet up and running - as I don't know what formulas or algorithms they use for calculations, I tend to rely on my own raw data now, and just use the sites for references (more soccervista as their league pages are more user-friendly)
 

paulb164

Colt
Well, first game of the predictions played, and in a league with a relatively high average of 2.89 goals per game, it predicted an under 2.5 goal pick with the final result a 1-1 draw for the Hebei v Shenzhen match. Odds were at 2.24 at the start, so nice to see it have a good start.
Interestingly, Forebets also predicted a 2.08 goals prediction for that game, and I did a goal analysis using my goals calc XLS, which expected an under 2.5 goals (2.43 to be exact, which is too close to 2.5 for that to suggest a bet with me), but more interesting, with rounding up/down, it said the correct scoreline. I have said before on another goals-related thread about the calc XLS being quite good at score predictions, particularly when it's a low scoring expectation, and their odds tend to hover around the 7.0+ mark on BF - I often trade with this if I can be around the computer when the game is being played.
Today is the Swedish game that the system offered an under 2.5 goal prediction - Forebets reckons it's an over 2.5 goal game with a 1-3 scoreline, though Soccervista thinks it's an under 2.5 (0-2 scoreline) ! My calc results below... I would be inclined to go for either a 0-2 or a 1-2 scoreline, and if I was trading on it, I would back those scorelines in BF and monitor the game for a profitable exit

74299
 

paulb164

Colt
NICE... another calc score prediction bang on if I rounded up/down ! And now 2 for 2 on the plan. Maybe there's something in this system after all ?

Results to date;
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(I also played the 'correct score' market exactly as I mentioned in the last post - greened up for a full evens return when the 2nd goal went in to make it 1-1)
 

paulb164

Colt
Looking ahead to the next few games in the 2 leagues - no bets in any of them as per the plan;

74329

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Looking at the Chinese game (current league average - 2.92 goals per game), and did another goals calc, and that came up with a prediction of 3.75 goals, so will still put an O 2.5 goals bet on that. With the rounding, that might turn out to be a 2-1 result.

74332
 

Attachments

paulb164

Colt
The Chinese game I mentioned in my last post here just finished 4-1 and comfortably managed the over 2.5 goals prediction. While I did put a bet on that eventuality, frustratingly I missed a trick with the correct score market that I often play - I would have put a bet on the 2-1 scoreline suggested by the above calc, and traded out when it reached 2-1.
Anyway, what with the reasonably high probability that this game was going to go over 2.5 goals, and with it actually scoring 5 goals, I'm wondering how this plan managed to miss this betting opportunity. The bias on the scoring appears to me to be too heavy on identifying the over 2.5 goals.
 

paulb164

Colt
Tomorrow's Chinese game comes out like this;

74426

Again, it rates it as a 'no bet', but a swift goal calc suggests it is worth going on the over 2.5 market;

1562792808286.png

74427
 

paulb164

Colt
personally, I favour home advantage in my calculations and this league does have a higher than average home win ratio (with home teams getting on average 1.63 points per game), so I will probably only play the above 1.5 goals.
 

paulb164

Colt
Chinese game finished 0-3 - my in-play bet on the 1.5+ goals when it reached odds of 1.4 came in. The spreadsheet's 'goals expected' said 3.13 goals and it got it bang on. Usually if the away team is expected to get the goals, I undercut the expectation by a goal... makes the bet safer in my opinion.
I'm starting to lean towards looking closer at the correct score market based on these calc results - I have just dabbled with them up to now because of work (and it isn't something I think you can automate using a bot like BetAngel... or at least at the moment until I look into it a bit closer !), but there's clearly a good profit in them if you can keep an eye on them IP.
 

paulb164

Colt
Chinese and Swedish league games for the next couple of days - 2 potentials offered;

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My XLS calc agrees, with 3.38 goal expectation.

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It agrees with the Swedish game as well - 1.71 goals expected.
 

paulb164

Colt
Chinese games for today;

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I still think the over 2.5 goal scoring for this system is very conservative. Although it only offers 1 qualifier for today, the goal calc XLS reckons its average should be 2.63. In contrast, the Guangzhou R&F v Tianjin Teda match should give 3.5 goals ! As the division average is 2.97 goals per game, and free-scoring Evergrande can take top spot with a win, I'm going to back both Guangzhou matches for over 2.5 goals.
 

paulb164

Colt
the O. 2.5 goal pick came in with a final score of 4-1... comfortable. Plan so far looks like this;

74631

I'm particularly pleased - I put both the O 2.5 matches I mentioned above in a double, which came off quite nicely ! :D
 
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