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The 2.5 goal market trial...

paulb164

Colt
I have just done the score checks on the next round of Belgian games, and one score prompted me to recheck the changes I made when I incorporated the Belgian and Argentinian leagues into the system. It showed that, despite my initial thoughts that I would get a more balanced score using 5 results instead of the system's 4, some returned scores were more exaggerated. The upcoming Antwerp v Mechelen game for instance using the original system returns a score of 6.5, but using the previous 5 results gave a score of 9 !
I now think that the bet decisions based on the rating score were designed for and should only use 4 results, and so I am reverting back to the 4 results per match - as the played rounds recorded for Belgium and Argentina were using wrong scores, I am going to remove them from the plan's records because they don't follow the plan, but will do so from now on. It only reflects 1 round of each league, and makes the existing results more accurate (as well as greatly improved !).
So, with that amendment done, and due to the fact that the system has just managed 11 straight wins to date, this is the correct plan p/l;

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paulb164

Colt
The 4 Chinese games are played, and all came through with 4+ goals apiece ! Terrible odds though, but that takes the winning run up to 15 straight wins now;

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Fingers crossed for the 2 Brazilian games tonight
 

paulb164

Colt
WOW - both Brasil games also came in... P/L is looking very impressive now with 17 straight wins. Even the unfiltered P/L is in a good place (i.e. profit, and the highest level it has been during the whole trial !)

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paulb164

Colt
This weekend's qualifiers... which also includes the German Bundesliga now, but amazingly not a single qualifier from that league;

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Worth noting that the final games for the current Chinese league are on Sunday, and there's a surprisingly high amount of qualifiers. Only the top 2 teams can possibly win the league... Beijing Guoan (2nd by 2 points) have a tricky tie against 4th place Shandong Luneng (who also need to win to secure 4th place) while Guangzhou Evergrande, whilst only needing a draw (due to their superior goal difference) against lowly Shanghai Shenhua (in the bottom 3rd of the table, but with nothing to play for having already avoided relegation). I'm expecting a thumping victory for Evergrande, and will be backing the home win as well as the over 2.5 goals. The bottom 2 teams are already relegated, so outside the top team action, everyone else is playing for pride (or perhaps with the freedom of knowing they are secure for another top-flight season next year ?).
I'll be sad to see it finish as it has been a good friend to this trial !
 
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paulb164

Colt
I'm starting to dislike the idea of including Belgium in this trial... just a single goal in the qualifier last night. Fortunately the Argentinian game overnight restored some value to the system;

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paulb164

Colt
A mixed bag of results for this morning's season end to the Chinese Super League... those with something to gain scored lots of goals, and those who didn't, didn't ! I'm always wary of dead rubber games and won't bet on them. While I recorded the stats for the games for the sake of this trial, I only bet on the Guangzhou Evergrande game knowing that they had something significant to play for, and they did not disappoint with a 3-0 victory.
So the Chinese Super League signs off for this season with a loss in their final games for the trial;

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The Aldovisi v Independiente game is a strange qualifier - it's in a low-scoring league, and the current odds are 2.46 for the overs market (which the filter will then discard)... will be interesting to see the result of that one tomorrow morning.
 

paulb164

Colt
China gave the trial a very respectable profit both with and without the filter;

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The Brazil Serie A will be finishing in a few weeks as well - it will be interesting to see just how the European replacement leagues perform...
 

paulb164

Colt
As I suspected, the Aldovisi v Independiente match was a strange one as an over 2.5 goal qualifier - it finished 0-0 with a red card to the home team mid 2nd half ! Fortunately the odds filter discarded it, and with the Belgian game having 3 goals, we finish the weekend sitting above £100 profit.

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paulb164

Colt
Next upcoming qualifiers, and none from the Argentinian league this round.

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I wasn't too sure about the Palmeiras v Goias game, and so I goal-checked on their league/season H/A averages - that told me I could expect 2.69 goals ! So maybe it will be over 2.5 goals... either way, the odds look to be over the filter threshold.
 

paulb164

Colt
A catch-up since the last post... we had 1 loser (thanks in part to Alagoano earning themselves a red cad during the game) and 1 winner which was discounted by the odds filter (so only the main listing showed an improvement). I wasn't sure that the Palmeiras game had 3+ goals in it, but they ran out 5-1 winners in the end !

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Please also note some Brazilian additions to the qualifying list (below);

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The key thing to note is that this is the last round of games for the league end - Flamengo have won the league and cannot be caught. Santos and Palmeiras in joint 2nd place on points (Santos has won more games, but Palmeiras has a better goal difference) both need to win their games to have a chance of getting 2nd place to themselves. At the other end of the table, Chapacoense, Alagoano and Avai have all been relegated already, with only Cruzeiro in with a chance of surviving at the expense of Ceara... all other games are dead rubbers and have nothing really to play for.
I'll expect the 2 'unders' games to live up to expectations, but the 'overs' game is 9th v 10th with the only different outcome for both teams based on the result is that Goias might leapfrog Fortaleza and move to 9th themselves if they win... Fortaleza cannot go higher than 9th as 8th place is 4 points higher. Personally I'll bet on the 2 'unders' but will avoid the 'overs' game.
 

paulb164

Colt
The weekend results so far... it looks like the German Bundesliga could be a fine addition to the trial with 2 wins from 2;

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paulb164

Colt
I am having doubts about the Belgian league for this trial - when I first took it on, it was averaging around 3 goals per game, and looked to be an ideal replacement for the Chinese league. Now it has dropped to 2.88 goals a game, and is fast becoming like the Swedish league used earlier in the trial. If I replace the Belgian league for another, it needs to have a high or low average to both return more qualifiers, and also to bias the 1.85 odds filter, which I don't think the Belgian games will do if they continue to drop in goal average (something I can see happening, especially with the cold weather on its way which I believe will reduce the goals per game further). At the moment the Dutch Eredivisie looks promising with an average of 3.31 goals per game, or perhaps the Austrian Bundesliga with their 3.55 goals per game average (thought that league only has 5 more rounds to go).
 

paulb164

Colt
Weekend results... a small drop in P/L due to low winning odds and 2 losers. The Brazil league has now finished, and it is up to the Argentinian, Belgian and German leagues to continue the trial;

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paulb164

Colt
This weekend's qualifiers - there are no Argentinian matches as the league seems to be having a week off and isn't returning until the 19th;

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