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The 2.5 goal market trial...

paulb164

Colt
And on a personal note regarding my post from Saturday regarding the Swedish games at the top of the table....
The team currently topping the table (Djurgaardens) need only a draw to secure the title, so I personally won't back them... the next 3 (Malmoe, Hammarby and AIK all need to win to achieve anything, so I will put a sneaky treble on those to win)
Nice to see I called the Djurgaarden match right which ended 2-2, and my 3 team acca come in as well at odds of around 2.5 :D
 

paulb164

Colt
Midweek Brasil games - not to sure about the Sao Paulo v Fluminense match as I think that will be a comfortable home win;

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paulb164

Colt
Good to see both Brasil qualifiers coming in with their respective predictions, and both within the 1.85 filter as well.

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The Swedish league has now finished their season, and with the odds filter it managed a tiny profit. Indeed, the filter makes a huge difference and ensured all the leagues convert from loss-making to profitable ones (in the Brasil case, a quite dramatic swing of £50 !);

1573197697395.png

It's also worth noting that I went through 315 matches to return 37 qualifying games (that the filter also allowed) - limiting the leagues to high or low scoring ones (which would have then discounted the Swedish Allsvenskan) would have given me 32 picks from around 200 games. So if anyone wants to use this system - just concentrate on the high and low-scoring leagues for both effort/time-saving, and profitability :D
 

paulb164

Colt
Well, encouraged by the positive (and profitable) results of the Chinese league, I will continue this thread with the inclusion of the Belgium 1st division. I picked this league as it is about half-way though the season, with similar goal averages and betting index (Soccervista), so would expect it to return similar results. And I will also be checking the last 5 matches instead of the system's original 4, as I think it will give a slightly more balanced score.
So, the next couple of games are;

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The first game is playing as I post this, and looks to be a 3 goal affair. With the international break coming, the next match isn't for another 10 days time.
 
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paulb164

Colt
this weekend's Brasil games - a couple of strong contenders with convincing system scores;

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The 1.85 odds filter currently looking to discard today's game, but look to qualify the other 2, which looking at the background stats/table positions/general goal records seem to support low scoring games. I'll give the first qualifier a miss, but think I'll have a punt on the other later 2.
 
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paulb164

Colt
All 3 qualifiers came in, giving the stats (and bank) a much needed boost. My fears for the first match proved to be unfounded.

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The breakdown of those figures (with just updates to the Brasil figures from last time);
1574043049365.png

The next qualifier is from the newly-introduced Belgian league to this trial, with the next round of Brasil games a couple of days after on the 24th Nov. I am also considering adding the Argentinian Superliga to the trial to as the Brasil season is just a few games from it's conclusion, and it is very similar in goal averages, season progress and game frequency, so ought to be a like-for-like continuation with a relatively low-scoring league.
 

paulb164

Colt
In fact, I will add Argentina Superliga, with their next games are as follows (bearing in mind that these are the first games following an international break, so the games may not go to plan). This league is currently averaging marginally less goals per game (2.24) than the Brasilian Serie A (2.28), so hopefully should yield quite a few potential winning qualifiers;

1574044924868.png
 

paulb164

Colt
In fact, I will add Argentina Superliga, with their next games are as follows (bearing in mind that these are the first games following an international break, so the games may not go to plan). This league is currently averaging marginally less goals per game (2.24) than the Brasilian Serie A (2.28), so hopefully should yield quite a few potential winning qualifiers;
My quote above about how games are played following an international break won't apply I think to the Argentina league as it continued during it while the Belgian league had a break. The Brazilian one also carried on, so I would say be wary with the Belgian league, but no concerns with the 2 South American ones.
 

paulb164

Colt
China's games from Friday onwards. It's a strange one this round, and with only 3 rounds left to the end of the China Super league season there's only 3 teams in it at the top (and on Saturday the top 2 are playing each other). There's the Asian version of the Champions League places to play for as well as the championship. The bottom team (Beijing Renhe), although mathematically still in it, are still 7 points clear of the drop (there are only 2 relegation places in this league) and are unlikely to put up much of a fight. Only 2 other teams could possibly go down, meaning quite a few 'dead rubbers' from here on - only mainly playing for pride now. A lot of variables to consider if you are thinking of backing the 3 over 2.5 qualifiers.

1574262184547.png
 

paulb164

Colt
With 4 leagues currently going through the trials, I will only post the qualifiers in future - I think it'll be easier for everyone to see the picks and mean less posts to sift through. I'll also add my comments to the same post if they're worth adding (although not with this particular post as I have added them to the individual ones above). So with the end of the international break giving way to the domestics, the next batch of qualifiers are as follows;

1574326487758.png
 

paulb164

Colt
An update to my last post to include the whole weekend's Belgian and Brazilian game qualifiers;

1574331374781.png

Now that I have somewhat identified (hopefully) the kind of leagues to target, and with the use of the 1.85 filter on Betfair, lets hope it becomes a profitable system for all that are following it.
 
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paulb164

Colt
Results so far for the weekend - Chinese Premier League has rewarded us with a clean sweep of wins. Club Bruges, despite playing against 10 men could only manage a 2-0 win.
I have also added a couple more Argentinian games to the list;

1574501194036.png
 

paulb164

Colt
Argentina's Patronato v Godoy Cruz is 21st v 24th in a 24 team league - hard to see this one as a goalfest in a low-scoring league ? Just rechecked the system score as I thought I might have made an error and it should have been -6.5, but it is right !
With the odds on an over 2.5 goal result currently around 2.12, it wouldn't make it past the odds filter, so I would advise one to avoid if betting on these matches.
 

paulb164

Colt
half-way through the weekend's qualifiers, and the results have put the graph in a much better position, and despite the peaks and troughs, a definite general upward trend is showing with the games using the 1.85 filter. The Chinese and Argentinian matches that have played so far have all came through, but neither of the Belgian games lived up to their expectations. With mostly Brazil and more Argentinian games to follow over the next 48 hours, it could prove to be quite lucrative.

1574584438330.png
 

paulb164

Colt
The weekend games are now played, with a couple to go from the Argentinian league tonight. Results as follows

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A little unimpressed with the Belgian league since I introduced it to the trial with 3 losses from 3 qualifiers so far, but lets see if it's just (hopefully) a hangover from the International break.
The other trial wins have pushed up the P/L of the 1.85-filtered bank to the highest it's been since the trial started (it briefly went over £80 before settling at it's current level);

1574670921330.png

I'm currently considering adding the German Bundesliga to the trial, which is currently averaging a whopping 3.27 goals per game. Considering how lucrative the Chinese league is (which will be concluding in 2 round's time) at 3.06 goals per game, it could be a winner with the over 2.5 goal market.
 

paulb164

Colt
Results of the overnight games... as I suspected, the Patronato v Godoy Cruz match didn't end up with a goalfest that the system thought it would - their previous high scorelines suggesting a high-scoring game last night was more of a product of lots of goals conceded, and not so much of goals that they've scored themselves.

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