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The 2.5 goal market trial...

Delboy99 said:
....... looks quite impressive there paulb164. Good looking tables and will be interesting to see just how they actually perform. Good to see a different perspective. :handgestures-thumbup:
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Don't forget this is just a trial of a system I came across on the webby - I personally wouldn't use it as part of my normal betting as it's quite labour-intensive compared to the amount of qualifying picks it throws up - something that became apparent to me as the trial progressed. My personal concern with this system is that it only looks at the last 4 games, which can be misleading in that I don't think it really has enough statistics to make a decent-enough informed decision on the quality of it's picks. I also purposely picked 3 different leagues for the trial - a low-scoring league, an average and a high-scoring league in Brasil Seria A, Swedish Allvenskan and the Chinese Super League to see how they work with the trial. Once the leagues have played out their season, I'll see how well it performed and report.
 
The first 2 games from yesterday threw up a win and a loss, and if the under 1.85 odds filter was applied then it was just the win !

Will give the overall figures when the other 2 games have played this weekend.
 
2 wins from 4 picks this weekend... unfortunately the odds weren't good enough for the wins to cover the losses so down on profits. Again, incorporating the under 1.85 odds filter seems to have a positive effect, and lessens the blow and produces a small profit over the 3 games it reduced the qualified to.

All qualifiers;
1569160796277.png

All with the under 1.85 odds filter;
1569160926786.png

Progress of the P/L so far over the course of the trial;
1569161700067.png
 
Some Brasil games through the night which threw up some qualifiers... the one game that didn't apparently qualify might also be worth a punt as it was only 0.5 out of qualifying;

1569484674304.png
 
... and a couple of Swedish games on this afternoon....

1569484924439.png

(my own system tells me these are 2 home wins - I will probably do a 2 team acca on that due to the low odds...)
 
paulb164 said:
Some Brasil games through the night which threw up some qualifiers... the one game that didn't apparently qualify might also be worth a punt as it was only 0.5 out of qualifying;

View attachment 77611
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Not too sure about the Palmeiras v Alagoano match staying under 3 goals... this is 2nd versus 4th from bottom and while the league averages only 2.27 goals per game, this may be more.

The other 2 games do look like low scorers though.
 
Those alarm bells proved to be right with the Palmeiras v Alagoano game - a whopping 8 goals in it !

With the other 2 qualifiers, 1 managed to stay under 2.5 (but managed to get 3 red cards), the other had a bit of a goalfest with 5 goals in it !

The 2 losing qualifiers both had starting odds over 2.0, so the under 1.85 filter would have restricted the bets to just the game that actually won ! I'm beginning to think that maybe betting on all the games in a low-scoring league such as Brasil Serie A, but put a starting odds filter of under 1.85 might yield a probable profit over time ?

Anyway, the progress chart with all games to date included;
1569568221029.png
 
A quick check on all Brasil qualifiers (8) that started with odds under 1.85, there were 2 losers, and the results yielded a £14.77 profit to £10 stakes !
 
The 2 Swedish games returned 1 win and 1 loss, with a little under break-even return on bets based on starting odds. Applying the under 1.85 filter, and neither match would have qualified.

The P/L now shows as;
1569878464751.png

All qualifying games considered;
1569878523435.png

... and with the U 1.85 odds filter;
1569878688371.png
 
Just occured to me... I was planning with a £100 starting pot and supposedly £10 bets thinking it was 1pt/100, but that is wrong. the ROI is right if you consider that it is 10pt bets... or just think of it as plain £10 bets and seeing what the P/L is !

Personally I like the fact that the U 1.85 filter is making such a big difference to the effectiveness of the plan, and a general upward direction with very little losing runs coming from it. If it currently wasn't such a manual procedure, I might even continue it after the 3 test leagues are done !
 
Hi paulb164
Nice read on this strategy, love the overs/under market myself and wondered if you'd be open to elaborating on or sharing the+/- scoring system you mentioned as I'd love to play around and back test myself.
Thanks in advance
 
Sorry guys - not been around for the last week - sunning myself in Spain and thought I'd still get time to come on here which turned out to be impossible !

Anyway, as I flew back yesterday I was unable to get all the weekend's games in, but will do Sunday's shortly...
 
Firstly the Chinese league... it's worth mentioning that with only 4 rounds left to the end of the season, that predictions may need some judgement added (dead rubbers, bottom teams trying harder to avoid relegation, top teams playing mid-table teams with nothing to gain, etc);

1571560418541.png

3 very strong qualifiers with test scores well over 5 points. Also, as I write this, the 1st game has reached HT with a 0-0 score - the over 2.5 goal market on BF is currently 4.8 !!
I personally would put some money on the O 2.5 with a cover bet on the O 1.5 at current odds of 2.1 to cover the O 2.5 stake. I'm not so certain of the O 2.5 goals though (hence the cover bet), as mid-table Tianjin Teda (safe from the drop and with little to play for) is playing the bottom team with a mathematical chance of avoiding the drop... my sensible head is telling me that this isn't going to be the goalfest the prediction expects it to be.
 
Baileyshambles said:
Hi paulb164
Nice read on this strategy, love the overs/under market myself and wondered if you'd be open to elaborating on or sharing the+/- scoring system you mentioned as I'd love to play around and back test myself.
Thanks in advance
Click to expand...
Hi B Baileyshambles - if you look at the very first post of this thread, you will see how the trial is calculated in full. I briefly reassessed the system about midway through and noticed that by applying a 1.85 odds filter, the profitability increased quite dramatically, so now I give the results out with that as well.
 
paulb164 said:
Also, as I write this, the 1st game has reached HT with a 0-0 score - the over 2.5 goal market on BF is currently 4.8 !!
I personally would put some money on the O 2.5 with a cover bet on the O 1.5 at current odds of 2.1 to cover the O 2.5 stake. I'm not so certain of the O 2.5 goals though (hence the cover bet), as mid-table Tianjin Teda (safe from the drop and with little to play for) is playing the bottom team with a mathematical chance of avoiding the drop... my sensible head is telling me that this isn't going to be the goalfest the prediction expects it to be.
Click to expand...
60 mins into the 2nd half, and the home team scores. A couple of mins after, the O 1.5 odds are still an acceptable 1.5 if no bet was placed at HT, while the O 2.5 odds were still over 3.0. Gotta say, watching the live stream for the 2nd half and it is a bit if a dire game - the one you'd expect to see shown last on MOTD !!
 
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