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    AR

VDW Systematic Betting

Chesham, i only chose the term " key horse" / "key race" was a way of referring to a race, not to imply there was anything "special" about those races, simply a way of avoiding having to say LTO before the NTO of the horse who lost to the horse who won NTO.....etc etc.

The gist of my post, was to suggest that "franking of the form", does seem to have a part to play, especially if the horse is being dropped in class.
 
rave154 said:
Chesham, i only chose the term " key horse" / "key race" was a way of referring to a race, not to imply there was anything "special" about those races, simply a way of avoiding having to say LTO before the NTO of the horse who lost to the horse who won NTO.....etc etc.

The gist of my post, was to suggest that "franking of the form", does seem to have a part to play, especially if the horse is being dropped in class.
Click to expand...


Hi @rave154

HRB make it easy to see how strong Form Lines are

17F36D1B-05AC-4028-8EC3-94B979887285.jpeg
 
@ Chesham,

i see now what you were doing, and yes that does look pretty handy, certainly better than the thousands of lines of code i have currently in front of me !!

anyways, my figures were an attempt to recreate the Roushayd / Vouchsafe scenario, as opposed to seeing how the form of the whole field worked out, i restricted it to only the horses that beat or lost to the "key horse"
 
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rave154 said:
@ Chesham,

i see now what you were doing, and yes that does look pretty handy, certainly better than the thousands of lines of code i have currently in front of me !!

anyways, my figures were an attempt to recreate the Roushayd / Vouchsafe scenario, as opped to seeing how the form of the whole field worked out, i restricted it to only the horses that beat or lost to the "key horse"
Click to expand...


Key Race Data can prove to be very useful

When Horseplayer Horseplayer switched his Speed Figs to the Blog Only, the Key Race Data picks continued there

7DE147CC-1EA6-43BA-ABE1-280981CA4CF1.jpeg
 
formtheory said:
Chesham Chesham

What is the name of the horse Lee is talking about here?

VK?

Cheers!
Click to expand...
It was Village King who had won a Class 3 off a BHA 127 Cheltenham (Slightly higher class than the Fontwell Race

prior to Fontwell had been racing in much better class ran in the Beechers Chase prior to Fontwell win and was dropped 1Lb by the BHA (carried a whopping 12st in the Fontwell race but racing back within its class ceiling

B42703CD-7349-4596-9811-8D969CCDFD61.jpeg990B1FE1-BE35-4F2F-9BB1-F9653FE11B51.jpeg13E03898-19E8-4CC5-A5EA-AA97904AC52F.jpeg5B3C7D12-8ED3-42E5-AE91-7201389D422A.jpegB42703CD-7349-4596-9811-8D969CCDFD61.jpeg990B1FE1-BE35-4F2F-9BB1-F9653FE11B51.jpeg13E03898-19E8-4CC5-A5EA-AA97904AC52F.jpeg5B3C7D12-8ED3-42E5-AE91-7201389D422A.jpeg

Looks like one of those horses who can give weight to inferior horses when racing within it class ceiling
 
formtheory said:
Hi Chesham,

Thanks for the detailed reply, I was thinking Viking Knight, or Valiant Knight for some reason.

Hope your well!
Click to expand...
Not quite like a Lee Bet But he was complimenting swish . Good example of a Horse not able to receive weight in a Higher Class Ceiling but can give plenty of weight when racing within its own class ceiling , good placing by the Trainer who obviously knew this horse every well and was able to give it the run around to get its BHA mark down
 
Where have the years gone guys, absolutely flown by.
I have a question regarding the "KEY" horse from the last three races as Lee called it.
Can the key horse be the same as the selection,eg Pegwell Bay won the mackeson, and vdw said the result meant he could win again next time or words to that effect.
Pegwell Bay won well against an outsider, would vdw have used PB performance from that race,rather than the runner up, when compiling the numerical picture for his next engagement.
I hope that makes sense.
 
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