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VDW Systematic Betting

Thomas said:
Where have the years gone guys, absolutely flown by.
I have a question regarding the "KEY" horse from the last three races as Lee called it.
Can the key horse be the same as the selection,eg Pegwell Bay won the mackeson, and vdw said the result meant he could win again next time or words to that effect.
Pegwell Bay won well against an outsider, would vdw have used PB performance from that race,rather than the runner up, when compiling the numerical picture for his next engagement.
I hope that makes sense.
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Pegwell Won (Beat Townley Stone) LTO Pegwell won 2/1fav
Pegwell also marked his own card in the Mackenson

Also Townley Stone would then bring in the Roushayd method

Pegwell Bay won Beat (Toenley Stone) LTO Pegwell bay won 2/1 fav

Next time out Townley Stone is dropped in class and also is coming out of the highest class compared to the others. He would have been a VDW cert in the Peterborough Chase.

When VDW states that you are looking for the winner in the race, he means the winner in the LTO race that each runner in the present race, ran in. You are looking at the form of that winner. Was he a consistent winner that was also fancied in the market. The G hall qualifiers would be a strong contender if they had the remaining of VDW credentials. ie Dropping from the highest class or highest abilty and a strong second picture. I.e

Roushayd had it all. Dropping in class, highest ability rating,(Highest Prize Win) Second picture = 4 and held the G Hall Key. Presumably these bets would be the series of bets that made up the 80% strike rate. Others would have a lower strike rate, like PK and may be used as part of a staking plan. Other bets would have 2 qualifiers, that could not be separated and so would be dutched.
 
I have 4 of my horses to follow running today which are:,
Fil Dor 1-10 Leopardstown
Ahoy Senor 1-55 Kempton
Riviere D'etel 2-20 Leopardstown
Minella Indo 3-05 Kempton
I've backed Silver Hallmark, Farouk D'alene, and Good Boy Bobby.
Good luck all who play today.
 
Hope you all have had a brilliant Xmas!

Chepstow 13:05 Paint The Dream
Chepstow 14:50 Hill Sixteen / Achille

My arrows for the day!!

Have a good one!
 
Chesham said:
Lee said he could explain everything he knew in about three paragraphs, but he felt that without Temperament others try to follow the method would fail. That is not meant to be sarcastic. Temperament is not about resisting the Temptation to bet. VDW gave his interpretation of Temperament.
a Manner of THINKING or behaving characteristically = when approaching the selection of races to bet in and Horses that should be backed.

Looking at Lees bets he was applying his Manner of THINKING or behaving characteristically when approaching the selection of races to bet in and Horses that should be backed. Who knows it may not be VDW as VDW intended and perhaps Lee found his own method, but it worked for him. Certainly weight seems to be a factor with Lees Bets and as we have read Pat in His Own Words, weight is also a factor with his method.

I am as guilty as the next man for not always keeping to a Manner of THINKING or behaving characteristically when approaching the selection of races to bet in and Horses that should be backed. We can only strive to get better. I have always said that I am only as good as my last bet.
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Not wanting to be to interpretating of VDW as i had not even heard of him till joined here , But i started reading this colum this morning but had to go to my brothers see how he is doing poor health.
So any way i was enjoying reading it so left it on my pc and i lost few pound on my results today, I have been betting on horses a little more with this style of betting mainly looking at last six races on racing post no more and analysing where the horse is placed.
The funny thing is when i came in the night i had 10 minutes to study next race which was the 6 45 at kempton.
After quick look the way i pick them and adding this sights read i very quickly decided its two horse race golden spice and flame of freedom.Its easy to see why i looked at these two value races but when you looked at flame of freedom last time this class just beat and down 5lb and thats not including his last big run in higher class, Then look at golden spice in this class won but up 8lb so both would have been selection if other didnt run but was clear horse was flame to freedom.
They finished first and second 16/5 and 11/2 in right order so got me out hole for today.
And i believe that race alone is good guide to style of betting.
 
Nice two winners there chesham for you and yeah seems to be there nice system for picking winners and every one can tweak there own final analyse to it.
Thats me just finished reading this from star to finish and very very interesting in deed.going to look at link you sent thanks.
For the way i pick them using my last 6 races on racing post makes logic to me the easy way is to eliminate the horses who have no form better than class of race no matter how poor that form is.
Then concentrate on whats left hopefully is no more than 3 or 4 horses and delve in to all the things said here.
IE: speed rate,class of best runs exspecially lately,weight differance,going and distance , then thinking of balance of todays race,and betting market seems crucial in todays race, and betting market of horses last runs compared to others key in that race.
So all in all looks like easy to get field down very fast then put the work in to important horses.
the point of temprement i put that down to consistant staking and not chasing on daily bases.
The other thing i would say in temprement is dont force a bet let the bet force you.
 
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