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VDW Systematic Betting

Bobajobber

Gelding
Systematic Betting

A book with an inappropriate title, the author thought that the effort had been wasted ,but if understood would of carried the readers a long way.

Why do you think VDW said that?
 
Hi Bob!
For me the Roushayd example captures every part of the V.D.W metholodgy and shows what you should be looking at in each part of the process-form/class evaluation.
Roushayd comes back from a break ( how many of V.D.Ws selections were coming back from a break?)
He then begins to show how the trainer places the horse not to win but to train.
Notice the distances of the races and the remarks about what Roushayds optimum trip was and just as important the trip he did not like.
Also take note of the opposistion faced, they too had all marked there cards last time out.
( I believe there are different ways of card marking but it must be related to class in some way or form)
Roushayd runs on a variety of trips and courses before marking his card.
Note also what V.D.W said about a horses and certain courses?

Roushayds next race saw him as the class/FORM horse.
 

nagwa

Colt
hi form study
systematic betting as always fascinated me since first buying the book amazing how vdw wrote these books puzzles he made vdw said vouchsafe had a better performance in the race before the great northern handicap but was way down the field
 

Bobajobber

Gelding
Hello FT,

Welcome.

It's nice to see someone else's interpretation of VDW ,I agree entirely with what you are saying here and it will be interesting moving forward what opinions we share in other aspects.
Thanks for getting involved and I look forward to more of your posts.
 

Bobajobber

Gelding
FT,

I am a sucker for helping people.

But I am glad you have made some ground and seen some worth, it may be a good idea to look at the middle of ' I did it my way ' thread ;)
 

downey

Yearling
formtheory said:
Hi Nagwa,
I think the big point with V.D.W is the current form of the opposition the horse in question has faced.
Formtheory
Wise words the above sentence, and i'm in total agreement with you.
By the way, welcome to the forum.
Downey
 
Thankyou Downey!
I believe I understand some of what V.D.W was trying too push forward but sometimes its easy understanding things its applying them thats difficult!
I think Ingleby star has a good chance-his last time out behind the super consistent and progressive swing bowler looks good to me. He was giving 5lb in weight to the winner and 8lb to dontpaytheferryman. I actually also backed Constant Contact at 16s, he has been backed into 5-1 so decided to lay him for a guanteed profit on the race and if Ingleby wins a bigger profit so happy with that!
 

enoch

Filly
how do you access the form...around the class/ form horse in each past race.... find it ,see if it ran to form did you selection run well against it..ie give it weight,run within a certain distance of that class/form horse....are you only selecting class/form horses and accessing them against class/form horses in there previous races?........Les
 
Thankyou Downey!
I believe I understand some of what V.D.W was trying too push forward but sometimes its easy understanding things its applying them thats difficult!
I think Ingleby star has a good chance-his last time out behind the super consistent and progressive swing bowler looks good to me. He was giving 5lb in weight to the winner and 8lb to dontpaytheferryman. I actually also backed Constant Contact at 16s, he has been backed into 5-1 so decided to lay him for a guanteed profit on the race and if Ingleby wins a bigger profit so happy with that!
did you back Sole Power today, Paul? It was a banker!
 
Roushayd's 4 runs that year, culminating in his win in the Old Newton @ 6/1. Raised in class every time, then dropped in class to collect. You could say it was a typical Pat Power bet!
02Jul88 Hay 12Fm Hc 17K 9-10 1/9 (hd Ile De Chypre 8-8) 6/1 Billy Newnes 96 — —
03Jun88 Eps 12Gd Hc 22K 9-9 6/9 (9½L Billet 9-0) 12/1 B Rouse — — —
14May88 Nby 13.5Fm 7K 9-0 4/9 (3¼L Merce Cunningham 8-7) 10/1 B Rouse — — —
14Apr88 Nmk 12Gd Hc 5K 9-4 3/8 (4L First Division 8-2) 5/1 S Cauthen — — —
 

Chesham

Sire
The only ones worth looking at are Roushayd, Billet and Failiq. Roushayd has not come to the pitch capable of winning and Failiq, second to Billet last time, had been dropped a long way in class. Nothing in that race hinted at a reversal this time. Billet once again showed the classic give away of improvement and is a probable winner although reaching a bit high.
It was in this Northern Dancer that Roushayd showed the classic give-away of improvement. Pushed up in class and running much better, although 6th, recording a speed figure rating of 65, a great improvement upon 27. Could now be placed to win, but watch what the trainer does!

Billet had run in the 1987 Northern Dancer the year before when he was Favourite and LTO out had won the London Gold Cup and was Favourite

Fast Forward 1 year and Billet wins the 1988 London Gold Cup and then again tackles The Northern Dancer

VDW is warning that Roushayds needs to be placed in a race that is within his class ceiling, distance, track etc


Sometimes the Trainer will want to condition the horse a bit more and again enter him in a race where he is disadvantaged, but in this case places him correctly next time out.
 

Thomas

Filly
What was it that made VDW say that Roushayd appeared a certainty in the Old Newton Cup ?

It was a bold statement, was it not. He also said Roushayd was the only horse at the races, another bold statement.
 
He was only carrying 1lb more weight against weaker opposition than he had faced, the horses that had shown form were coming from lower class races and also were lower class horses.
 
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