Hong Kong Speed Figures

[AustinDillon75]

The Hare Amazing dedication and patience from you in this thread. When lockdown started I downloaded a couple of years worth of Hong Kong results but made little progress mainly because I was clueless in my endeavours.

Now with the help of several posters I am feeling as if my GB/Ire AW ratings are making steady progress. Once I am in a good place with them I will definitely have another look.

I also devised a sheet that would give the sectional times for HK as well, I'm up for trying to make use of those as well but the official website splits the final half mile into 440 yard rather than individual furlongs which is a shame. It was a lot of copying and pasting but I do have some decent data which I can return to.

 

[The Hare]

Sunday Card Sha Tin
Mike you made me fell I needed to study the races, so here are some quick ideas. Late so no comments.

6.00 Regency Gem or Golden Mission.
6.30 Diamond Brilliant or SO AWESOME
7.00 Casa De Forca or Fire Ball
7.30 United we Stand or Xponential
8.00 Super Mission or Cahrizard
8.35 Gluck Racer or Darci Joy
9.05 ALL IN MIND the only one I have
9.35 Massive Pocket and Shining Ace.
10.10 Kasi Farasi only one I like here
10.35 Didn't look, too tired!

Plenty of newcomers in some races so would avoid those I think.

First time I have really looked at the runners in Hong Kong so not expecting much. Good luck with your selections.

 

[Outlander]

Sunday Card Sha Tin
Mike you made me fell I needed to study the races, so here are some quick ideas. Late so no comments.

6.00 Regency Gem or Golden Mission.
6.30 Diamond Brilliant or SO AWESOME
7.00 Casa De Forca or Fire Ball
7.30 United we Stand or Xponential
8.00 Super Mission or Cahrizard
8.35 Gluck Racer or Darci Joy
9.05 ALL IN MIND the only one I have
9.35 Massive Pocket and Shining Ace.
10.10 Kasi Farasi only one I like here
10.35 Didn't look, too tired!

Plenty of newcomers in some races so would avoid those I think.

First time I have really looked at the runners in Hong Kong so not expecting much. Good luck with your selections.

well done Kevin, very nice winners there

 

[The Hare]

I also devised a sheet that would give the sectional times for HK as well, I'm up for trying to make use of those as well but the official website splits the final half mile into 440 yard rather than individual furlongs which is a shame. It was a lot of copying and pasting but I do have some decent data which I can return to.

@ AustinDillon75. I just collected the data as i found many years on the internet on a site Kaggle, Then i get obsessed and write some Macris to sort the information from the official site. I updated in Lockdown and just continued. Happy to supply you with the data as shown on this thread. with the help of @ O Outlander I managed to find a few errors and think as accurate as I can get now.

You have a lot on with your UK and Ireland though! Hong Kong I still can't understand the speed ratings whch is why I did form ones as well, they work as expected, very confusing.

 

[The Hare]

@ O Outlander. You gave good mentions to those first 2 winners and a couple later on. Close with your bets as well, hope you had some winning bets. I started looking at the first race and then realised my ratings were incorrect. Just the one day. My ratings sheets are sorted in the opposite diredtion to my data sheet and had copied them in reverse. All sorted now. Thought I had the trainers wrong as well but checked them and all is fine. Will make a better effort on Wednesday, The information is really excellent, furst time I had studied it.

Cheers

 

[Outlander]

@ O Outlander. You gave good mentions to those first 2 winners and a couple later on. Close with your bets as well, hope you had some winning bets. I started looking at the first race and then realised my ratings were incorrect. Just the one day. My ratings sheets are sorted in the opposite diredtion to my data sheet and had copied them in reverse. All sorted now. Thought I had the trainers wrong as well but checked them and all is fine. Will make a better effort on Wednesday, The information is really excellent, furst time I had studied it.

Cheers

Didn’t back a winner I missed the first 2 horses I was going to bet because I woke up later than intended, they both lost , then I backed Galaxy Emperor who got nailed by a 44/1 shot that had hardly raised a leg this year coming 2nd to last on most of its starts, then I couldn’t resist a bet on E Star when I saw it was more than 50/1 in the last but I backed it to win and it got beat by the hotpot favourite, finished really strongly and justified a bet but I managed to lose anyway, something of a theme atm. Really enjoying being involved with the Hong Kong stuff, really is an excellent racing jurisdiction.
I would rather bet on Hong Kong stuff than the U.K. or IRE stuff atm. Feel like I have a better handle on it even though the betting account doesn’t agree yet.

 

[AustinDillon75]

Where are you backing the horses, are most bookies accepting on Hong Kong racing?

 

[Outlander]

Where are you backing the horses, are most bookies accepting on Hong Kong racing?

I bet with bet365 , I only have small bets but I think all bookies ypu can bet, I’m banned or restricted from most bookies so haven’t looked at the others.

 

[The Hare]

The problem is that it is Tote betting only, so any bookmakers will take the bets as it goes into a pool. So the odds are harder to beat. But if you find ones without Purton or Moreira the prices are bigger. Certainly all the main UK bookmakers or Betfair will let you bet into the Pool. Sadly no Exchange betting allowed!

Great work Mike, always one comes to beat them. Having a look at the Fantastic Show, as you say never close this season over similar trips. Only difference about 20lbs lower HK Official mark since October and drop in Class from 3 to 4 yesterday. I neeed to study class drops and body weight differences! Keep trying you're a good judge.

 

[Outlander]

The problem is that it is Tote betting only, so any bookmakers will take the bets as it goes into a pool. So the odds are harder to beat. But if you find ones without Purton or Moreira the prices are bigger. Certainly all the main UK bookmakers or Betfair will let you bet into the Pool. Sadly no Exchange betting allowed!

Great work Mike, always one comes to beat them. Having a look at the Fantastic Show, as you say never close this season over similar trips. Only difference about 20lbs lower HK Official mark since October and drop in Class from 3 to 4 yesterday. I neeed to study class drops and body weight differences! Keep trying you're a good judge.

Betdaq have markets for Hong Kong, amazingly the liquidity seems poor but you can put in an offer and sometimes its worth it, the other day I saw hotpot Winner Method think about a 1/3 shot being matched (small amounts) at 2.0

 

[The Hare]

Betdaq have markets for Hong Kong, amazingly the liquidity seems poor but you can put in an offer and sometimes its worth it, the other day I saw hotpot Winner Method think about a 1/3 shot being matched (small amounts) at 2.0

Thanks Mike. Didn't realise that. Sure Betfair was just the pool bets, will have a look Wednesday.

A little better on Sunday Speed was 2-2-0 and Form 1-2-0. Card for Wednesday and ratings attached.

 

[Outlander]

Thanks Mike. Didn't realise that. Sure Betfair was just the pool bets, will have a look Wednesday.

A little better on Sunday Speed was 2-2-0 and Form 1-2-0. Card for Wednesday and ratings attached.

yes Betfair no exchange betting for Hong Kong, they tried to bring it in and the HKJC wasn't having any of it and threatened them with a cease and desist.

Jockey Club orders Betfair to cease and desist in scathing letter

In a scathing letter, the Hong Kong Jockey Club has told overseas betting exchange Betfair to cease and desist from offering Hong Kong markets, accusing them of being “reckless, cavalier and unconscionable” while compromising integrity....

www.scmp.com

 

[Outlander]

Happy Valley Wednesday

11.45 I think the form where RED MAJESTY beat Wonder Express might prove key, the latter is weighted to turn it around but probably wont.
Wonderful Tiger would merit respect on 3 back run, but has pulled chance away last twice and can't be trusted to run his race.

12.15 Smart Thinker is in and out performer but go close if put best work in, BIG BANG BONG a more solid option in a race I can't get enthused about.

12.45 Another minefield race, WIN WIN STAR tops the ratings so is a token pick.

1.15 I like SPLIT OF A SECOND to go close to following up, the fly in the ointment could be consistent Flaming Passion with Teetan on.

1.45 TELECOM ROCKET won LTO and the speed ratings suggest should make a bold bid to repeat, hard to see Rhapsody being too far away and is a strong player also.

2.15 None of these are in any great form THUNDER STOMP has a good a chance as any in a race I wouldn't touch for betting.

2.45 HERE COMES TED caught my eye here but then I see one of those sexy Purton types Spontaneous who has been strutting around in recent races and trials and could still be concealing full ability from speed rating compilers.

3.15 One of my favourite angles highly rated horses with Teetan on, so STOICISM for me, Stock Legend is in great form and every chance again here.

3.50 I want to bet CHEERFUL DAYS here who 3 back got a massive 15lb sectional uplift when finishing 10th, since been 2nd and won LTO, in great form , but Superbella put up the top speed rating in this race when winning easily LTO and Moreira stays on, I would imagine strength in the market for this one and obviously the likeliest winner.

Ratings attached

 

[The Hare]

11.45 Red Majesty certainly came back to form last but maybe INDIGENOUS STAR is the best in with tongue strap back on. Also Fire and Gold over a longer trip or Wonderful Tiger could be involved.
12.15 Smart Thinker and Shinealot with headgear off and a bit of break might take advantage of their good handicapping.
12.45 Win Win Star and Master of Fun as lightly raced horses should go close with Prince of Bon Bon best of regular runners.
1.15 Flaming Passion is improving and challenges Island Shine dropping in class and Split of a Second back to form last and up in class.
1.45 Fast improving RHAPSODY will be hard to beat, maybe Falcon Turbo the most likely to.
2.15 Purton on CHATER PINS looks the intersting one here.
2.45 Spontaneous and top weight Joyful Union look best on ratings
3.15 Moreira on TRANSCENDENT seems the clue but MEGA HEART is so well handicapped. Problem is doing this study I have realised that M L yeung seems to not have the best impact on improving horses or getting them to show their best so that puts me off!
3.45 I liked the look of World Famous but then realised C Y Ho has the same impact as above race. Purton on GOLDEN SPECTRUM will be close with Fast Pace the danger. Superbella up 10lbs puts me off but top rated on last run.

A lot similar there Mike, a better day in store for you.

 

[Outlander]

Where are you backing the horses, are most bookies accepting on Hong Kong racing?

I didn’t realise before but some bookies do fixed prices, I backed 3 horses today with Bet365 and all 3 ended up half the price, Telecom Rocket , Here Comes Ted and Stoicism, all 3 lost , at this rate i will be banned before I have a winner.

 

[The Hare]

Speed 2-1-1 and Form 1-0-0 for Wednesday. Sunday card attached. Think Sha Tin 5f ratings are very high for last meeting, need work doing on them - wind benefit, not removed as yet.

 

[Outlander]

Sha Tin Sunday. keep this weeks list of losers brief

6.00 Jiangxi Stamina has the top rating and Teetan so is the pick, draw a negative.

6.30 Not sure ratings will help here, the locals will be queuing around the block to back Drops Of God who probably has 20lb in hand on his trial runs and in off the newcomer 52 HK Rating here.

7.00 Can't imagine the bookies will let you have too much of a price on Courier Wonder who is still very well handicapped, Duke Wai for the F/C.

7.30 McMunigal not a great draw but decent win LTO tops the ratings so a token pick.

8.00 Like DANDY YEARS here with Purton and decent draw.

8.35 Wide open race Golden Link as good a chance as any, many dangers including The Hulk.

9.05 Same old local Group 1 horses, Exultant top rated usually fodder for superior overseas horses, but I still wouldn't want to be taking a short price against him even in this weaker race. Just that strong possibility he finds one to beat him again.

9.40 COMPASSION SPIRIT will probably be anchored by the weight of my money in this, Yo Beauty with Moreira the biggest worry.

10.15 DRAGON FORTUNE and Gracylove stand out on ratings .

10.50 KILLER BEE will take a lot of beating, can't see the bookies or the locals letting it go off at value odds though.

Ratings attached

 

[The Hare]

5.30 Purton replaces Ho on TURBO POWER should improve it but hardly a confident selection for these youngsters.
6.00 Jiangxi Stamina with Teetan, lightly raced has chances, Blazing Partners consistent or Victorious Leader back at trip would be my choices.
6.30 VICTORY SCHOLAR most likely of those raced with Purton back on board and top of ratings.
7.00 Group 3 Handicap! Go along with Mike that his 2 are pick of weights
7.30 McMUNIGAL lightly raced and improved last, plenty chances though, Clements Legend Moreira gets on leaving EZRA are perhaps the main ones.
8.00 Improving ROBOT WARRIOR has second run for trainer and Moreira replaces Purton who is the danger on DANDY YEARS.
8.35 Win Win ran well after a break but KING OPIE is so well handicapped.
9.05 At the trip EXULTANT is beatable as Mike says, Only COLUMBUS COUNTY and GLORIOUS DRAGON look capable, Ho, jockey on the latter puts me off a little on what would be best bet.
9.40 Compassion Spirit is consistent but beatable, improving HALL OF CHAMP and HORSESAIN BOLT could beat it.
10.15 DRAGON FORTUNE improved last time and lightly raced but plenty of others as well.
10.50 Killer Bee improving, possibly METRO WARRIOR topweight and up in trip could defeat it.

 

[The Hare]

Well not a great effort - well done @ O Outlander. I need to re learn horse racing!
Speed was 1-1-1 and Form 0-1-1 for top 3 rated, very poor.

Wednesday's card. Working on a new set of Speed Figures, main problem are the 5f sprints at Sha Tin, occasionally wind assisted or hindered, all other races around tight bends. Also the effect of weight doesn't seem to be a pound for a pound. Still working on this but would say 0.45 lbs is the effect of 1 pound in weight. More experimenting to do.

 

[SteveT]

Dont know if this will be of use to you The Hare