#### The Hare

##### Colt

So I have been messing around , with the help of @Outlander for a while on these Hong Kong Ratings. As i say the information provided is excellent and easy to collect. But the Speed Figures compiled have been less than perfect! Myself and @Outlander compile the ratings in different ways but with some similarities. I have changed the methods but there is little difference.

The biggest problem is working out a correlation between the Official Ratings (or Racing Post Ratings) which are on a similar scale to the actual ratings my Speed Figures calculate. Today I have gone back to a method that at the 1000m (approx 5f) distance gives around 22lbs per sexonf, this is using the Timeform method (or at least the one they used 5 or so years ago). This would produce similar results to @Outlander or @TheBluesBrother or @davejb throughout the Forum. I have used higher figures but they don't seem correct.

So the figures produced have not been great, I would say the top rated produce lower than 20% success in races averaging about 12 runners per race. I realise these are usually competitive handicaps but it is not a great return. I have also messed around with calculating pure form figures which are better but still only around 20% for yop rated. I will have to analyse the results I have for this season and post!

So I was using all of the last 10 runs for a horse if it was in the last year - this may be a problem, could be going back to far for this. I know @Outlander uses a deterioration for runs further away but I think he would admit the results are similarly poor.

If i get time I will analyse my results with varying numbers of last runs for this season and post later.

So today I have been messing around with my new calculation method and compared the Official Ratings of winners with the ratings these produced. Now the structure of tacing in Hong Kong are strict Classes that are based on the Ratings -

Class 5 are 0-40 rated

Class 4 40-60

Class 3 60-80

Class 2 80-100

Class 1 above

Then Group Races above this.

So I compared the results of all the winners in the last 5 and a half seasons with there Official Rating and found the figures were very much determined by Class yet within the Class the ratings were very close to 1lb on Official Ratings equalled to 1lb on my speed Figures. This can be seen on the attached with clear breaks at 40, 60 and 80 - the Class 2 is more complicated as the top ratings can vary from 90,95 and 100.

So if we say Class 3 and 4, the average OR of the winner is 18.58 different whilst the SF differnece is only 6.39. Yet looking at the ratings between 41 and 60 and 61-80 the differences are very close to a similar scale, using Linear Regression I had 1.03 SF to 1 OR for Class 5 and 1.09 for Class 4.

This has completely confused me as it suggests a 40 rated in Class 5 is equivalent to say a 50 or even higher rating in Class 4 and so on.

Kevin

The biggest problem is working out a correlation between the Official Ratings (or Racing Post Ratings) which are on a similar scale to the actual ratings my Speed Figures calculate. Today I have gone back to a method that at the 1000m (approx 5f) distance gives around 22lbs per sexonf, this is using the Timeform method (or at least the one they used 5 or so years ago). This would produce similar results to @Outlander or @TheBluesBrother or @davejb throughout the Forum. I have used higher figures but they don't seem correct.

So the figures produced have not been great, I would say the top rated produce lower than 20% success in races averaging about 12 runners per race. I realise these are usually competitive handicaps but it is not a great return. I have also messed around with calculating pure form figures which are better but still only around 20% for yop rated. I will have to analyse the results I have for this season and post!

So I was using all of the last 10 runs for a horse if it was in the last year - this may be a problem, could be going back to far for this. I know @Outlander uses a deterioration for runs further away but I think he would admit the results are similarly poor.

If i get time I will analyse my results with varying numbers of last runs for this season and post later.

So today I have been messing around with my new calculation method and compared the Official Ratings of winners with the ratings these produced. Now the structure of tacing in Hong Kong are strict Classes that are based on the Ratings -

Class 5 are 0-40 rated

Class 4 40-60

Class 3 60-80

Class 2 80-100

Class 1 above

Then Group Races above this.

So I compared the results of all the winners in the last 5 and a half seasons with there Official Rating and found the figures were very much determined by Class yet within the Class the ratings were very close to 1lb on Official Ratings equalled to 1lb on my speed Figures. This can be seen on the attached with clear breaks at 40, 60 and 80 - the Class 2 is more complicated as the top ratings can vary from 90,95 and 100.

So if we say Class 3 and 4, the average OR of the winner is 18.58 different whilst the SF differnece is only 6.39. Yet looking at the ratings between 41 and 60 and 61-80 the differences are very close to a similar scale, using Linear Regression I had 1.03 SF to 1 OR for Class 5 and 1.09 for Class 4.

This has completely confused me as it suggests a 40 rated in Class 5 is equivalent to say a 50 or even higher rating in Class 4 and so on.

Kevin