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Hong Kong Speed Figures

The Hare

Filly
So having posted my data for Hong Kong racing, all results for the last 5 years, i thought it would be better to start a new thread to stop that being cluttered up on the Compiling Speed Figures Thread.

For some reason, I am a compulsive collector of data but usually never get round to calculating speed figures. During the lockdown i had some thoughts on how to compile them and calculate going allowances for meetings. I messed around with old Racing Post Ratings for past UK and Irish racing and came up with a method.

Hong Kong should be easy as they make all the actual times so easy to collect. But I am currently working on compiling standard times for the 3 tracks and then the ratings should follow quite automatically.

Obviously the impending re start of UK and Irish racing will make this a niche category, but we'll see how it goes.

Firstly I calculated the average finishing time of each horse over the last 5 years and using the 25th percentile calculated a standard time for each class. This was just to work out the difference between classes rather than in the Beyer type pars for class, the intention is to arrive at one standard time for each track and distance.

But this has confused me. The average class differences using the Hong Kong Official Handicap ratings and Racing Post ratings bear no resemblance to the figures I obtained using actual times, unless my method is incorrect, but it is similar to that used by most UK methods.

Attached is the table I have. The numbers are my speed ratings, Hong Kong Official ratings at start of race and Racing Post ratings for that race (so including lbs beaten). All are in lbs. The speed ratings are just the difference in average time between the classes converted into pounds.

For information, I used the average weight of the horses as being 1115 lbs (median is a couple less). This is for horses 4 and above on the spreadsheets posted earlier. So saying at 55.45 seconds equates to 20lbs per second. Any opinions on this are welcome.

Thanks

Kevin
 

Attachments

  • HK CLASS DIFF.xlsx
    10.6 KB · Views: 23

Outlander

Gelding
Had a look at the last 3 years going is unbelievably consistent , less than 0.3s/f difference between the fastest and slowest ground in 3 years, horses rated HK20 run about 50-55lb lower than horse rated HK138, there are horses rated HK18-20 winning handicaps out there and personally I would bet these horses if they ran in the UK off a BHA60 with confidence.
 
Last edited:
O Outlander The Hare The Hare

I wonder if this parallel speed figure chart could be used for the Hong Kong scene.

Other uses for this chart, if horse A is a proven 1:23.0s (78/79 rating) over 7f, what would be his projected time be over 6f? - Answer - 1:10.6s.

Maybe this chart could be used to apply ratings to sectional times.

Please note when reading chart 110.2 is 1m 10.2s (1:10.2).

Speed chart.png

Mike.


Speed chart.png
 

Attachments

  • Speed chart_1.pdf
    564.4 KB · Views: 22
Last edited:

Outlander

Gelding
O Outlander The Hare The Hare

I wonder if this parallel speed figure chart could be used for the Hong Kong scene.

Other uses for this chart, if horse A is a proven 1:23.0s (78/79 rating) over 7f, what would be his projected time be over 6f? - Answer - 1:10.6s.

Maybe this chart could be used to apply ratings to sectional times.

View attachment 84429




Mike.View attachment 84430
It probably wouldn’t be far out TheBluesBrother TheBluesBrother especially with such consistent going, I completed the full ratings for the last 3 years using The Hare The Hare data and been having a look through it to see if I think it looks viable, my ratings are massive compared to HK ratings but i suppose the only way to find out if you are doing something worthwhile is to rate future races and see how you get on, I looked at a few recent days you posted ratings on the compiling speed figures thread and the order was very similar to yours, you usually have a sixth sense when it comes to speed figures so I took heart from that, the levels might be different but I don’t worry to much about that as long as you are consistent with yourself, looking forward to see how The Hare gets on with his ratings also, maybe next season we will all have something we can discuss on here for the Hong Kong races.
 
my ratings are massive compared to HK ratings

That doesn't matter it's the consistency of the figures that count, no matter what scale your ratings are on.
I do find their handicap system strange, the recent highlight for me was a horse rated 22 carrying 7-13 winning a race, my initial thoughts were WFT.
I just converted the speed chart .pgn file to a pdf file, it's easier to read and zoom.

Mike.
 

Outlander

Gelding
That doesn't matter it's the consistency of the figures that count, no matter what scale your ratings are on.
I do find their handicap system strange, the recent highlight for me was a horse rated 22 carrying 7-13 winning a race, my initial thoughts were WFT.
I just converted the speed chart .pgn file to a pdf file, it's easier to read and zoom.

Mike.
yeah I honestly think the likes of that horse you refer to would be a good thing off 60 over here.
there is a horse called Voyage Warrior who ran off HK80 and I rated it low 120’s , I was looking at the horse since won a Group 2 race and btn 2 1/2 lengths in a group 1 last time out. If you get a chance look at its run off 80 on 23/06/19 , lightning fast run.
The time before it ran a massive rating when 2nd to Thanks Forever , Thanks forever ran 116 on my ratings that day was off HK65, is now a proven group horse rated HK120 , the times if you can believe them can highlight horses like this in Hong Kong much better than here.
 
Last edited:

Outlander

Gelding
DATERNOCOURSETRACKCLASSDISTGOINGPOSHORSEAGEHKRTIMESPEEDGA
26/04/2020​
606​
SHA TINTURF - "A" CourseGroup 1
1200​
G
7​
VOYAGE WARRIOR
4​
120​
68.77​
104.16​
-1​
05/04/2020​
551​
SHA TINTURF - "B+2" CourseGroup 2
1200​
G
1​
VOYAGE WARRIOR
4​
105​
69.48​
99.95​
8​
08/03/2020​
475​
SHA TINTURF - "C" Course
1​
1200​
G
4​
VOYAGE WARRIOR
4​
103​
68.82​
86.63​
-9​
08/02/2020​
407​
SHA TINTURF - "C+3" Course
2​
1200​
G
6​
VOYAGE WARRIOR
4​
103​
69.16​
108.94​
0​
01/01/2020​
299​
SHA TINTURF - "C" Course
2​
1000​
G
1​
VOYAGE WARRIOR
4​
92​
55.97​
106.88​
0​
17/11/2019​
178​
SHA TINTURF - "B" Course
2​
1200​
GF
10​
VOYAGE WARRIOR
4​
92​
69.65​
94.93​
-2​
12/10/2019​
95​
SHA TINTURF - "C" Course
2​
1000​
GF
6​
VOYAGE WARRIOR
4​
92​
55.53​
99.71​
-17​
23/06/2019​
757​
SHA TINTURF - "A" Course
3​
1000​
GF
1​
VOYAGE WARRIOR
3​
80​
55.40​
122.96​
-10​
26/05/2019​
687​
SHA TINTURF - "A" Course
3​
1000​
GY
2​
VOYAGE WARRIOR
3​
78​
56.48​
119.55​
9​
22/04/2019​
597​
SHA TINTURF - "C+3" Course
3​
1000​
G
1​
VOYAGE WARRIOR
3​
66​
54.89​
106.89​
-18​
24/03/2019​
521​
SHA TINTURF - "C+3" COURSE
4​
1000​
G
1​
VOYAGE WARRIOR
3​
52​
56.65​
100.77​
5​
 

Outlander

Gelding
24/05/2020​
682​
SHA TINTURF - "A" CourseGroup 3
1200​
G
1​
THANKS FOREVER
4​
120​
68.96​
100.02​
-3.26​
26/04/2020​
606​
SHA TINTURF - "A" CourseGroup 1
1200​
G
3​
THANKS FOREVER
4​
120​
68.54​
108.02​
-1.30​
05/04/2020​
551​
SHA TINTURF - "B+2" CourseGroup 2
1200​
G
3​
THANKS FOREVER
4​
120​
69.73​
95.76​
8.00​
08/03/2020​
475​
SHA TINTURF - "C" Course
1​
1200​
G
2​
THANKS FOREVER
4​
119​
68.79​
101.14​
-9.10​
16/02/2020​
423​
SHA TINTURF - "A" CourseGroup 1
1400​
G
4​
THANKS FOREVER
4​
114​
81.94​
106.34​
10.42​
19/01/2020​
348​
SHA TINTURF - "A+3" CourseGroup 1
1200​
G
2​
THANKS FOREVER
4​
104​
68.60​
106.83​
-1.04​
29/12/2019​
290​
SHA TINTURF - "B+2" CourseGroup 3
1000​
G
3​
THANKS FOREVER
4​
104​
56.15​
109.33​
3.89​
08/12/2019​
235​
SHA TINTURF - "A" Course
2​
1200​
G
2​
THANKS FOREVER
4​
102​
69.12​
104.54​
-2.05​
17/11/2019​
177​
SHA TINTURF - "B" CourseGroup 2
1200​
GF
9​
THANKS FOREVER
4​
102​
68.54​
106.54​
-1.86​
03/11/2019​
146​
SHA TINTURF - "C+3" Course
2​
1200​
GF
1​
THANKS FOREVER
4​
92​
67.89​
106.69​
-14.77​
12/10/2019​
95​
SHA TINTURF - "C" Course
2​
1000​
GF
3​
THANKS FOREVER
4​
92​
55.41​
102.13​
-16.52​
14/07/2019​
817​
SHA TINTURF - "A" Course
2​
1400​
GF
12​
THANKS FOREVER
3​
92​
83.23​
63.44​
-7.94​
01/07/2019​
775​
SHA TINTURF - "B" Course
2​
1200​
GF
6​
THANKS FOREVER
3​
92​
68.53​
106.32​
-8.25​
08/06/2019​
724​
SHA TINTURF - "C" Course
3​
1000​
GF
1​
THANKS FOREVER
3​
78​
55.11​
118.09​
-12.58​
26/05/2019​
687​
SHA TINTURF - "A" Course
3​
1000​
GY
1​
THANKS FOREVER
3​
65​
55.97​
116.81​
8.56​
10/06/2018​
713​
SHA TINTURF - "C" COURSEGriffin
1000​
G
1​
THANKS FOREVER
2​
0​
56.99​
65.48​
-16.37​
 

Outlander

Gelding
Another horse that's caught my eye this one might have plenty upside
DATERNOCOURSETRACKCLASSDISTGOINGPOSHORSEAGEHKRTIMESPEEDGA
20/05/2020​
673​
HAPPY VALLEYTURF - "C+3" Course
3​
1000​
GF
1​
CLASSIC UNICORN
4​
71​
56.38​
98.21​
-10.85​
22/04/2020​
601​
HAPPY VALLEYTURF - "C+3" Course
3​
1000​
GY
4​
CLASSIC UNICORN
4​
72​
58.16​
72.47​
-0.78​
21/12/2019​
272​
SHA TINTURF - "A+3" Course
3​
1000​
G
9​
CLASSIC UNICORN
4​
72​
57.16​
93.35​
6.18​
20/10/2019​
108​
SHA TINTURF - "A" Course
3​
1000​
GF
6​
CLASSIC UNICORN
4​
72​
56.39​
90.93​
-13.87​
07/07/2019​
794​
SHA TINTURF - "C" Course
3​
1000​
GF
1​
CLASSIC UNICORN
3​
63​
55.09​
105.35​
-10.73​
02/06/2019​
704​
SHA TINTURF - "B" Course
4​
1000​
GF
1​
CLASSIC UNICORN
3​
52​
55.12​
112.30​
-13.12​
 
Thanks for posting the parallel speed chart, do you believe it would be accurate for Hong Kong racing due to the going remaining somewhat "constant"?

It's mainly for the North American racecourses whether or not you could use it for Hong Kong racing remains to be seen, it might need some subtle changes to make it viable, maybe it could be adapted for our AW racecourses the basics are there.

Please note when reading chart 110.2 is 1m 10.2s (1:10.2)

Mike.
 
Last edited:

USFIGS

Yearling
I made figures for Hong Kong years ago and had good pars for all classes at Happy Valley and Sha Tin. Basically, I took all the times for a year by class on good or better surfaces, threw out the top and bottom 10% and average the rest. I could have used two years and made it a little more accurate but if it was off for a certain class, we're talking a pound or two. When I made the variant for the day's races I found best 3 out of 5 for the top 5 finishes would be the best projection for how the horses could have been expected to run. Then I adjusted the variant to min variance between the figure those top 5 finishers would be assigned, and what their average best 3 of last 5 were.

The caveats were, I'd add back points to a horse's projection for ground loss, e.g a horse that should run a 100 (avg B3of5) should run a 95 if he is 3W no cover. Also found that 1 lb from base weight (I used 120lbs as base weight but since it's a constant it didn't really matter) was worth about 1/2 point.

I stopped because it was a ton of work and the races are at such a bad time in the U.S., I was making all these figures and never betting. It was actually pretty easy for me. Much easier than making French speed figures where the pace is false 2/3 (or more) of the time. :)

If I find those HK pars (it was on an old PC) I will give them to you.
 

The Hare

Filly
Hello. Further to the spreadsheets I previously posted on the Compiling Speed Figures thread. I have now tidied them up with all the information checked. Horses names had a few changes with names changed and suffixes had been added to a few. All times are checked and Sectional times now added for all 5 seasons, and checked with finish time. Horese ages and headgear have also been checked. For ages a problem is the North/South Hemisphere mix which means that horses have birthdays at different times, but these are as I can obtain. All HK Official ratings have also been checked and added where missing.

Hope they are useful to some. 2015-16 added to this, rest to follow.
 

Attachments

  • HK1516 RESULTS.xlsx
    1.4 MB · Views: 11
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