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Hong Kong Speed Figures

The Hare

Filly
Another weak effort Speed 1-0-1 and Form 0-0-3. Card for Saturday. Hoping to produce a summary of all year results and maybe try adjusting form based on races ago to see if any better. These cards are just actual rating adjusted only for weight.
 

Attachments

  • ST170421.xlsx
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The Hare

Filly
Well Speed 2-1-1 but Form a poor 0-1-1.

Card for Wednesday attached.
 

Attachments

  • HV210421.xlsx
    66.4 KB · Views: 1

The Hare

Filly
Well another terrible effort for the Speed Ratings, Just 1 top rated over the last 10 runs. Yet the form did quite well going 1-2-2 or 5 out of 9 in the top 3 rated. Apologies on the above the Race numbers are incorrect for some horses and those in Race 10 at the bottom are from previous meeting.

Sunday includes 3 Group 1 races, though some entrants I have no form for in Hong Kong.
 

Attachments

  • ST250421.xlsx
    65.4 KB · Views: 0

The Hare

Filly
Sunday saw Speed 1-2-2 and Form 1-2-0, Fail to have the unbeaten Golden Sixty top rated though started at 1/20 in Group 1. Very consistent ratings though.

Card for Happy Valley on Wednesday.
 

Attachments

  • HV280421.xlsx
    67 KB · Views: 1

The Hare

Filly
Using the last 10 runs unadjusted for time was a disaster! Only 1 3rd place rated on speed and nothing in top 3 for form. Some work needed on time decay or reducing number of runs looked at too come.

Sunday ratings attached.
 

Attachments

  • ST020521.xlsx
    73.9 KB · Views: 3

pbhorse

Yearling
The Hare The Hare below my standards for comparison all pretty uniform around 0.11-0.13 sec/200m lower than yours, with the obvious exception of the 5f at Sha Tin and the longest distance at HV and ST.
I compile standards totally differently than most , but one of us is wrong on these particular 3 distances by about what amounts to 8-12 lbs

Probably not a simple as it seems as you suggest with the way the straight 5f relates to the turn races on the different racing lines in Sha Tin turf.

The performance of my ratings in HK would suggest my standards can‘t be perfect, so I’m not suggesting that it is your standards that are wrong.

STANDARD TIMES
The Haresec/200LBS/SECOutlandersec/200LBS/SECCorrelation
HAPPY VALLEY
1000​
57.61
11.5220​
26.04​
56.94
11.3880​
26.34​
0.1340​
HAPPY VALLEY
1200​
70.46
11.7433​
21.29​
69.75
11.6250​
21.51​
0.1183​
HAPPY VALLEY
1650​
100.71
12.2073​
14.89​
99.57
12.0691​
15.06​
0.1382​
HAPPY VALLEY
1800​
110.22
12.2467​
13.61​
109.02
12.1133​
13.76​
0.1333​
HAPPY VALLEY
2200​
137.58
12.5073​
10.90​
135.35
12.3045​
11.08​
0.2027​
SHA TIN AWT
1200​
69.56
11.5933​
21.56​
68.74
11.4567​
21.82​
0.1367​
SHA TIN AWT
1650​
99.54
12.0655​
15.07​
98.31
11.9164​
15.26​
0.1491​
SHA TIN AWT
1800​
109.05
12.1167​
13.76​
107.87
11.9856​
13.91​
0.1311​
SHA TIN
1000​
57.13
11.4260​
26.26​
56.01
11.2020​
26.78​
0.2240​
SHA TIN
1200​
70.00
11.6667​
21.43​
69.27
11.5450​
21.65​
0.1217​
SHA TIN
1400​
82.59
11.7986​
18.16​
81.85
11.6929​
18.33​
0.1057​
SHA TIN
1600​
95.43
11.9288​
15.72​
94.59
11.8238​
15.86​
0.1050​
SHA TIN
1800​
108.33
12.0367​
13.85​
107.37
11.9300​
13.97​
0.1067​
SHA TIN
2000​
122.86
12.2860​
12.21​
121.73
12.1730​
12.32​
0.1130​
SHA TIN
2200​
134.88
12.2618​
11.12​
133.66
12.1509​
11.22​
0.1109​
SHA TIN
2400​
150.10
12.5083​
9.99​
147.01
12.2508​
10.20​
0.2575​

So then attached are comparisons between the Official Ratings, My form ratings and my speed figures.

I discarded the first season of results from my figures to allow the ratings to settle. As I say I calculate my Going allowances as just the Median of the difference between today's raw rating and the last 3 ratings given to the horse. This is a little rough and ready, I suppose the last rating is more significant then the one before and so on. This is something I could look into to fine tune the differences but generally it is close. My form ratings are on a similar scale, with the raw differences for beaten runners calculated using the same formula above. The difference is that for these I just use the Median differences based on a race by race basis.

So I took all finishers for the last 4 and a half seasons, deleted all that hadn't finished or were beaten far enough to record a rating of less than -60 for form. I also deleted those horses with no official rating, all Griffin races and some of the Group runners have no rating.

The attached gives the average Official Rating of each horse in each class, those in yellow are were there are less than a 100 runners in the sample. As can be seen there is usually a gap of between 17 and 19 ranking points between Classes 2 and 3 and 3 and 4, which with a spread of 20 rating points is fine.
The average form ratings are my ratings for the same runners as the official ratings. These are slightly different as they include distance beaten and weight but show a close match to the Official ratings. Perhaps indicating the formula is a little incorrect as the table of differences suggests my ratings increase a little compared to the official ratings as distance increases. Maybe just over 1 rating point/pound per distance.
I am using the actual finishing time of each horse in calculating the ratings, so (1500*(difference Standard-finishing time)/finishing time). I think this can be addressed a little by using the standard time or the winners time to calculate this.
But the big difference is with the Speed Figures. As we can see there is a close correlation between the form and official ratings yet my speed figures are much different. So the differences between Classes don't match!

So the Totals page averages the runners in each class using weightings for the runners. It seems that the Speed Figures increase by 1 point for every 2.4 points of Official ratings and Form ratings.

As I say my form and speed use the sane method of 1lb in weight = 1point beaten and the same scale for beaten distances. The only difference is how the Going Allowance is calculated. Maybe i need more manual work on calculating the Going adjustment for speed figures, perhaps a different one for 1000m races at Sha Tin would help but clearly the speed figures can never match the form ones.

I did try non weight ratings and may have another look at those to see if i can work out a better adjustment for weight carried.

When compiling the meeting ratings I use the last 10 runs in the last 365 days, perhaps this is the problem? I will test the effect of looking at different number of races in the past at a later date.

Kevin

Hi Kevin,

I have just picked up your post and found it very intriguing and encouraging. I am from Hong Kong and hence the horse racing here has been my favorite sports. Apologies as a new learner if you have mentioned before in the post. Do you create a par table of speed ratings per class, please?

Based on my understanding, Ratings between distances under the same classes should be equivalent in order to maintain consistency in performance comparison (i.e. Par Rating from Standard Time of Class 4 1,200m should be equal to that of Class 4 1,800m in ST Turf), such that we can easily compare the horse strength across different distance. From your Speed Ratings, I believe it can be very useful in computing tissue price and further, the quinella/trio table. Currently, I am just using the speed ratings provided by a local blog to create my tissue price. But I would also like to create my own speed ratings. Do you mind if you could guide me through your process of building your own speed ratings, please? I am still a bit confused here.

Thanks for your time. Below is my standard time, just fyi.

CourseDIST12345GroupGRIFFIN
HV Turf1000
56.67​
57.04​
57.44​
57.58​
1200
69.24​
69.73​
69.96​
70.25​
70.58​
1650
99.14​
99.63​
100.00​
100.62​
100.81​
1800
108.83​
109.25​
109.47​
109.96​
110.66​
108.83​
2200
136.65​
137.59​
138.13​
ST Turf1000
55.65​
56.18​
56.63​
56.89​
57.82​
56.19​
56.66​
1200
68.32​
69.16​
69.40​
69.76​
70.00​
70.10​
1400
81.31​
81.80​
81.92​
82.42​
82.91​
81.07​
1600
94.41​
94.54​
94.66​
95.41​
95.76​
93.52​
1800
107.09​
107.68​
108.03​
108.77​
106.57​
2000
121.37​
121.59​
122.40​
123.27​
123.89​
120.90​
2200
136.47​
2400
146.22​
 

The Hare

Filly
Hi PBHorse

Many thanks for your reply, good to see some interest in these works.

I will write up a message later on how the ratings are worked out.

Kevin
 

The Hare

Filly
Hello @ P pbhorse

Firstly thanks for putting your Standard Times on here. For other information on compiling speed figures on this forum have a look at the excellent threads Approaching Speed Figures and Compiling Speed Figures. These have excellent information and ideas on compiling the initial standard times and then the production of ratings afterwards. There are people with much more experience and knowledge than I have!!

I started compiling speed ratings for Hong Kong as the information is so easy to find and presented very well on the Hong Kong Jockey Club site and more recently the Racing Post has started to produce results and ratings as coverage is now extensive on the UK Racing channels. A long time ago I produced ratings for UK racing, mostly National Hunt, (Jumps), which I found worked very well. I didn't really bother much with Flat racing, I found it much harder! So now I had more time I thought Hong Kong would be excellent to find a method, however to be honest it seems so much different from UK racing! @ O Outlander also produces ratings and we have tried a number of methods, all with similar results!

My latest set of standard times, (all methods I have used to produce them return very similar times), are below.
1620385013777.png
So as you can see I only have 1 set of ratings for all classes. This should produce similar results to your own though I may have a different method I will explain below.
From comparing your Standard times to my own, they are very similar. The differences I notice are that my Standard Times for Happy Valley 1650 and 2200, Sha Tin turf 1600,2000 and 2400 will produce lower figures than your Standards for those distances, (well using my method anyway).

1. To calculate the Standard times I have taken all the completed times for each distance and all horses, except for the Griffin races.
2. From these I have taken the 25th percentile time for each class and distance using Excel.
3. This gives me a set of times for each class and distance, some with very few runners so a little unreliable. I decided to compile a set of Standard Times based on the 25th percentile of a Class 4 race as these have by far the most runners.
4. Using my percentiles for each class and distance I attempt to work out what this would mean in a rating difference between all classes at the 3 different tracks. The advantage of Hong Kong is the very similar going at nearly every meeting.
2. I calculated the 25th percentile for each distance and each class from this data, using Excel formula.
3. From this data I would have something like your standard times, though they wouldn't be perfect for all distances as the accuracy would be reduced by number of runners at some distances.
4. So using these 25th percentiles, I calculated a comparison of the difference in ability between each class. I am currently using the Timeform method for this. Here is an explanation Timeform Speed ratings. So as you can see in there is a formula
1500*(race time - standard time)/race time
Taking the difference between the percentiles for each class and then weighting this for the number of runners in the 2 classes being compared, I add together the differences for all distances at the track and arrived at a figure of the difference in ratings between classes that this would produce.
5. From these estimates of the difference in class, I calculated a rating for each horse in the race based on it's time and the Standard time for the course that I had calculated above. Using the finish time of each horse to calculate. These ratings were adjusted for the handicap weight of te horse in each race compared to a weight of 126 lbs. So if it carries more this would be added to the rating, if less subtracted from the rating. I also included any jockey allowance in this, adding it to the weight carried.
6. From these ratings, I calculated an average rating for each horse at each class and distance, as you can see below. The first just using the Hong Kong OR and the second my speed figures.
1620387203209.png
Using the formula above I arrived at the following differences between classes
1620387866107.png
6. I started with the first few meetings using these average ratings for class to calculate a going allowance, so all class 4 runners at Happy Valley would have their rating for that run then subtract 58.94 from the Speed Figure table above. For each meeting I would find the median of these differences and then amend the rating by adding or subtracting this figure.
7. after a few meetings I then had enough data for the computer to compare actual performances with the last 3 runs of each horse, I then calculate the median figure of all differences at the track on that day and use that as my going allowance to adjust the ratings.

That is the method, the only complicated part are compiling the Standard Times, then a little Excel knowledge allows me to set up the spreadsheets to calculate the ratings automatically. Really I should look at the ratings for each meeting to see if there are any obvious errors in the ratings, but I have yet to get round to that. If there are errors in my Standard Times, they are not great, maybe a point or two on the ratings. To calculate the ratings I have been pasting for each meeting, I take the last 10 runs of each horse in the last calendar year and adjust them to a horse carrying 133lbs. So if a horse is carrying 126lbs it would have 7 added on to it's last 10 runs.

The main problem I have with the speed figures is the weight amendments. Clearly the HK Official ratings and the Racing Post ratings are on a different scale to the speed figures. This is a problem I am struggling to overcome!

You will also see my Form ratings attached which I expected would be similar to the speed figures in Class differences, but they are not. I use the same method to calculate them, just instead of comparing the whole meeting to calculate a Going Allowance just use one race against itself. So I produce a set of ratings based on the time difference between the horses, using the race winners time as the standard and adjust for weight. These seem to match the OR and RPR in a very similar way.

If you have got this far PB! Do your speed ratings take account of the weight carried or just the time difference between horses. I did try this but only for the last meeting of last season, I may have a go at seeing what happens if I don't account for weight and try and find the best adjustment by doing so.

This may all be confusing, so if you need to ask anything let me know. Or check out the other threads I mentioned.

Kevin
 

pbhorse

Yearling
Thank you so much, Kevin. Let me take some time to digest and build up my standards and would share it with you afterward. I can also share two of my tissue price systems based on the normal distribution and MLR later if you are interested. Will keep you posted here! Good Luck on the Shatin race tmr!
 

The Hare

Filly
Thank you so much, Kevin. Let me take some time to digest and build up my standards and would share it with you afterward. I can also share two of my tissue price systems based on the normal distribution and MLR later if you are interested. Will keep you posted here! Good Luck on the Shatin race tmr!
Certainly be interested in anything you can help. To be honest I don't bet on Hong Kong racing, just purely interest and used it to try and devise spreadsheets to calculate automatic ratings and speed figures.

As I say my ratings for the meeting are just taken as the median of the differences between the raw rating for today and the rating of the last 3 runs for each horse. I am sure there are better methods but the consistent going makes it more reliable.

No bother, it is a long job compiling Standards but for 3 tracks is not too bad and all information on here. I will update current season after tomorrow's racing.

Cheers

Kevin
 

pbhorse

Yearling
Hey guys, just found this on google. Do you think it helps resolve the ratings between classes, especially the one on ST 1000m Class 5?
I think what we need to do is to find the corresponding slope and intercept in HK Turf races.
 

Attachments

  • Speed Rating.pdf
    1.6 MB · Views: 6

Outlander

Gelding
The Hare The Hare Going to start having a few small wagers on the Hong Kong stuff see how I get on.

Tomorrow I like Moeraki in the 3.50 in good form, ran a fast time 3 runs back, then lost out in a blanket finish next time, raced placed turf since and not disgraced, think might still be fairly treated especially on AW track.

Two horses of interest in the 2.15 both ran 2nd on the 7 March card and on the speed figures Little Thunder comes out the most interesting at today’s weights but the other horse I like Magic Supreme was second to Moeraki that day and had a decent sectional uplift that still puts him in the mix in this even though he’s won since and now 8lb higher on the HK handicap scale.

The horse most people will be looking out for is Winning Method 1.15, unbeaten , won with incredible ease last time , Purton on , still looks a better class than he is racing in tomorrow (backed up by speed figures), it's hard to imagine him losing, but is a Turf to AWT switcher so that little unknown element would stop me at what I would imagine will be likely very short odds.
 

The Hare

Filly
Disaster for the last 10 runs ratings! Speed 1-0-0 and Form nothing at all. Sha Tin for Sunday card, 1 all weather, the rest turf.
 

Attachments

  • st1605.xlsx
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Outlander

Gelding
Sunday Card Sha Tin

6.00 VALIANT ELEGANCE ran well CD on Wednesday, this race looks shade weaker
Regency Gem was slow away in that race, prefers further but Teetan on and could be picking them off late.
Golden Mission has turf form LTO that would entitle him to win here, but switch to AWT a negative and Moreira on ensures wont be overpriced.

6.30 Diamond Brilliant looks most likely winner on LTO effort, Purton stays on.
Whiskey Neat been running well in Happy Valley recently.
SO AWESOME might be a value alternative, recent run put him in the mix on sectional speed ratings and penultimate run arguably the strongest form on offer.

7.00 PARTY GENIUS has a clear chance on speed and form to follow up recent win. Negative drawn wide , but did race wide around the turn when winning.

7.30 Breeze Of Spring has been consistent lately and is a leading contender for Moreira.
I'm going to have small speculative bet on likely outsider FARM BUMPER, sectional speed ratings make an on the surface non descript run LTO seem more interesting.

8.00 Ratings suggest GALAXY EMPEROR can follow up recent win
Danger could come from All You Know who ran well behind Party Genius so worth a check how that one gets on in the 7.00.

8.35 Tight race numerous chances City Legend, More Than A Horse and my token pick SHADOW BREAKER are the ones who appeal the most.

9.05 ALL IN MIND , Like That and Regency Bo Bo look the main contenders on ratings in that order.

9.35 Not an easy race to assess , will go with VALIANT DREAM who was in decent form until disappointing LTO behind Massive Pocket.

10.10 I think the form on the 25/4 in race won by Serious Liaison could be key here , several from that contest are in here again, difficult to say which one will come out on top this time, weights and measures say DECISIVE ACTION has as good a chance as any but is all a bit messy and I won't be betting.

10.35 E STAR drawn wide but the ratings say still well weighted and every chance of following up LTO win, Private Rocket and Roman Turbo could be dangers and if the reserve Winning Method got a run would be a fancy in this.

The ones to avoid that will be carrying the weight of my money are Galaxy Emperor and Farm Bumper and possibly Party Genius if the price compensates a dodgy draw.

Ratings attached - filter race in column B
 

Attachments

  • HK160521.xlsx
    873.9 KB · Views: 25
Last edited:

The Hare

Filly
Thanks Mike, was going to reply and looking at first race noticed some errors in ratings on 21st April, so this is a new card for tomorrow.
 

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