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Draw laying system

Oh no - I missed that too!! How dare they...

Would be interesting to know if the market 'unsuspended' after the equalising goal....??
Sometimes it doesn't happen quick enough.
 
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Well, a good nights work which has pushed the P/L from a shade under £100 to a shade under £150. 1 loser with low lay odds easily offset by the winners.

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A couple of lessons learned this evening;
  1. 2 games with seriously high (10.0+) lay odds, which almost lost, has made me realise I need to be a bit more careful with the picks in future. I have now written into the qualification criteria a lower draw odds condition, and so we shouldn't see any more wild lay odds in future (which will of course reduce the amount qualifiers overall, but I think we've been lucky so far and avoided the big hit which will surely happen at some point !)
  2. So far, 6 games with Scotland Premiership qualified, but 2 of them have ended up as draws (with a further 1 nearly killing the system !). I have adjusted the criteria a little to reflect that - the Scottish Premiership average is 28% which was the also the limit for qualification. The qualification level is now 26%, so there probably won't be any more qualifiers from there, unless they improve their draw record during the season.
All games already listed still qualify with the qualification adjustments, although there may be 1 or 2 high odds games, so caution is advised. In future, there shouldn't be any more games with lay odds over 10.0
 
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The overnight Bolivian game finished with a resounding 7-0 home win... the odds were a shade over 10 and because I included it in my original listing I will include it in the results;

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OK... a slight list revision after adjusting the filters slightly. I have also removed 2 Spanish games (Barcelona and Real Madrid) as the draw lay odds were astronomical (both 15.0+). There may be more sneaking in as we get closer to the weekend.

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I am expecting the Bolivian game overnight to have high lay odds as well, but it is a strong qualifier so I will keep it in.
 
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I'm going to remove the Bolivian game Always Ready v Potosi from the list (which is a shame as they ran out 5-1 winners !) because Betfair didn't even put it on their lists of games to bet on. There's no point including games if you are unable to bet on them !
 
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New and revised list - some drop-outs due to filter adjustments and high odds, plus a couple of additions. Please note this list supersedes all previous lists for today's and the weekend games;

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Good to see that despite a slight tightening of the filter levels, there's still a good spread of games that qualify, and hopefully it'll improve the current hit-rate of 85% as a result.
 
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I've noticed that while I am using the standard odds of the draw to discard certain games (currently set at 8.00), the ones that just get in (i.e. the Ajax v Willem II game tonight, and the Ukrainian match, which ended 3-0) has much more exaggerated odds on Betfair compared to say Bet365, which I personally not include based on the high odds and danger to the profit. It is up to anyone if they want to follow the list for betting on, but at the moment I would not recommend laying any game with odds over 10.0
I'll lower the draw odds threshhold even further within the qualification criteria and hopefully that will discard any games above 10.0 in future. As I have included the above games on my list, I'll also include the results and the effect on P/L whatever they are.
 
Friday and Saturday's results - the system took a bit of a dent Friday evening with a Dutch game ending with a 1-1, but recovered magnificently with just a single lowly-odds game the only blemish on an otherwise fine recovery to over £200 P/L. Results as follows;

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paulb164 said:
Good to see that despite a slight tightening of the filter levels, there's still a good spread of games that qualify, and hopefully it'll improve the current hit-rate of 85% as a result.
Click to expand...
Already seeing an improvement in this area - hit rate now up to 86% !
 
Sunday's results... despite the hiccup of 2 losing bets, it still resulted in a £38 profit for the day, and P/L is now at £244 !

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Next listing of games... as usual this may be added to over the next couple of days;

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I have to say, as trials from a simple idea goes, this is going much better than l expected (I've just crossed everything I have hoping I haven't jinxed it all) ! And with minor tweaks being done along the way, it could turn out to be a real money-spinner ?

Now that I almost have my first 100 results to analyse, I'm now toying with the idea of adding some games which have a high expectation of away wins (i.e. low draw/home win league picks) - there are 2 in the current list... one of which is the Bulgarian game played yesterday (which finished with a 0-3 scoreline as my system thought it would). The other is Friday's Austrian game, which actually has a better away record for favourites than home matches (though only 5 more rounds left for the season). I think I will colour-code the lists in future so if anyone wants to just stick with the home games they can. I'll also add a new line to the graph to highlight the differences between with and without the away potentials. I don't think there will be many qualifiers unless I expand the leagues I currently cover.
 
Tonight's game didn't let the system down with a 2-0 win - the trial is now just one win away from breaking the £300 mark !

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No more games until Thursday... I have also identified a few more matches to add, which I'll do tomorrow.
 
Updated list for the games up to and including the weekend - I think there are still a couple of games to add, which will happen nearer the weekend. The games with an away win expectation are colour-coded yellow... both games are in leagues where home advantage doesn't seem to make a difference.

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There's a few anomalies I have noticed with the picks here - the file picked the entire Croatian schedule, most of Belgium's and Denmark's as well, so I have gone through them individually to filter some out.
I am also having doubts about the Lille v Montpellier game... it only just creeps in mostly based on division positions and a very high league home average of 1.8 points per game, but I can see a little danger with the match-up. It has relatively low draw odds, so if it does return a draw it will have minimal impact. In trying to protect the pot, I seem to be gaining a poker player attitude where I am looking for reasons to fold, rather than reasons to carry on. Perhaps I should trust more in the file picks themselves and not start over-analysing their returns ? Let the results speak for themselves ?
 
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