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Draw laying system

paulb164 I would be surprised if there's not a few people, like me, who took a bit of a kick-in this weekend.
My own LTDs had losers at Galatasaray, AC Milan & Brondby & Lay Away on Rennes. Luckily, I know over time what I do works. So just a set back.
It's weekends like this that can catch people out.
When they have a few winners, they raise their stakes & then take an almighty hit.
Keep doing what we're doing & next year Rodney..........
 
OK - analysis time.
I've had a chance to look at the system's performance stats for the 133 games played so far. My XLS not only calculates the qualifiers, but also records the results in various charts to help identify trends and where to adjust. There are some obvious changes that can be made, with the following observations made.

The Q-rating has 2 levels (actually 3 if you count the ones I have included using my 'judgement'). To get a 'Q', it must achieve a score of 7, to achieve a 'QQ' it must be 8+... my additionals (non-Q) tend to be what I think are strong 6's. They break down as;
1576451708285.png
This equates in real money as;
1576452466961.png
Clearly my own additionals don't compete with the system-generated picks at all. I need to keep above a 75% hit rate to ensure a profit,.. while the 'Q's and the 'QQ's are going way above that, my own choices have not. It would be more sensible for me to not to include any non-Q's that I think are good enough, or find a better selection process for those games that don't make a 7+.
I find it a little strange that the 'QQ' games that return a higher rating score than the 'Q' games have so far performed worse - this I guess means that the criteria filters just need adjusting to better define more likely winners.

Part of the checking criteria looks at the % of draws any league has to date, bearing in mind they can fluctuate up and down as the seasons progress. With the leagues that I check, they break down as;
1576451574187.png
The only thing this tells me is that 18% and under has returned a 100% hit rate. Unfortunately there have only been 17 games for that % level, so I need to tweak the filters to show that aspect more strongly within the game scores.

The game evaluation process is based on various criteria, but starts with what it thinks the score will be. Since it is originally based on home favourite wins, the matches needed to predict the scorelines of 2-0, 2-1, 3-0, 3-1 and 4-1. They break down as;
1576452238896.png
This tells me that I should only include games that predict a 3 goal margin i.e. 3-0 or 4-1. Since the other scorelines represent only a 1/5 of all the games recorded so far, I think it'll be a minor but positive change that should raise P/L, hit rate and also mean not as much money is tied up with several games being played at the same time.

I have some other auto-generated charts to dissect, but with the ones above I can make some immediate changes that ought to improve the system. To give it it's due, it has performed quite magnificently (today's results notwithstanding) considering I've made very little changes to it since I started the trial, so I believe this can only improve as I get more data and change little things along the way.
 
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Shauno said:
paulb164 I would be surprised if there's not a few people, like me, who took a bit of a kick-in this weekend.
My own LTDs had losers at Galatasaray, AC Milan & Brondby & Lay Away on Rennes. Luckily, I know over time what I do works. So just a set back.
It's weekends like this that can catch people out.
When they have a few winners, they raise their stakes & then take an almighty hit.
Keep doing what we're doing & next year Rodney..........
Click to expand...
LOL - I'm realistic enough to expect a few losses along the way... I'm sure it won't make a profit every single day it throws out qualifiers. Clearly today's results do not fit the pattern of the last 3 weeks, so hopefully it was just an anomaly and that I won't see too many of these in the future, It may have wiped off £100 from yesterday, but the system when all is said and done is still a little under £300 in profit, and still in it's infancy and not the polished article yet.
 
More analysis...

If I only include the current results but only showing games which predict a 3 goal advantage, then the P/L looks like this;
1576500792421.png

The P/L would have actually broke the £400 barrier at some point. Unfortunately yesterday's bad day brought it back under that, but would have finished with a respectable £363 (based on the results using purely the system picks without any additionals from me). So, an immediate change is to only pick games which thinks it will have 3 goal advantage with.

Also, because games which it predicts a 4-1 scoreline shows a 10/10 success rate, I'm wondering if they could be more profitable for the system by putting 2 points on each bet instead of 1 ?
 
Delboy99 said:
..... looks great Paul, but I have little clue to what is going on. Is this the simple explanation? :eek: :eek:
Click to expand...
I guess unless you know what happens in the background, you're not going to fully understand what I've just said - sorry about that. In a nutshell, I have made some changes to the search criteria that ought to improve results from now on ! :D
 
The next bunch of listings... it's quite light due to several leagues going through their domestic cup games, and some breaking for the winter and returning in a couple of weeks. For those that won't be breaking until after Christmas, there will be more games to add but not until their cup runs are done which will be just before the weekend;

1576663141251.png
 
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paulb164 paulb164 .... I take it that all these are LTD selections highlighted within your system? Can you advise what the figure is in the third column? Just interested. :)
 
So, an updated list of outstanding games in the system for this weekend onwards;

1576923881159.png

The Barcelona game will undoubtedly have odds over 10.0, but considering they only managed a goalless draw midweek in the El Classico, I think they will be keen to return to winning ways with Real Madrid on equal points in the Spanish La Liga. I would be comfortable to put this as a home win and include it on the list.
The Celtic game is against 3rd place Aberdeen (albeit 14 points between the 2 teams and Celtic playing 1 game less), so is a bit of a concern for me., but the system gave it a strong score so I have included it. The lay draw odds is still around 7.0 on BF, so it isn't too high considering what it has been in the past for Celtic, and with Rangers snapping at their heels and getting a good away win last night they do need a win themselves to extend their 2 point lead at the top.
Another game that rings an alarm bell is the Torino v SPAL - Torino doesn't have a good home record, but SPAL has the worst away record of the league and have only managed to score 2 goals while conceding 14 on the road. It's included because it got a qualifying score, so I am relying on the system to prove me wrong.
 
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It's been a good weekend so far, with both the red and green line above the £300 mark and most of the big losses of last Sunday have been recouped. The red line has regained the lead, and is almost as high as it's been throughout the system trial.

1577025407249.png

My 2 concerns from yesterday proved unfounded, but in both cases a red card came helped out the system. Barcelona also ran out convincing 4-1 winners.

I may have to remove the Bolivian Jorge Wilstermann v Sport Boys match, as it looks like it's not going to be covered by BF - if they do decide to include it tonight, then I'll keep it in.
 
The graph has been updated with games finished today so far (a few more than the last post's results), and it looks neck and neck between the all picks and the Q-rated picks only - I have split the 2 charts so you can better see the comparisons between them. While they have never been too far away from each other throughout the trial, it's quite clear that the Q-ratings are a bit more of a stable upward trend, while the more erratic All picks are slightly more profitable, if not at this present moment of posting but for at least most of the time of this trial.

1577031851397.png 1577031882018.png

I'm not sure if anyone is actually following these picks with actual money, but if anyone wants me to, I can highlight the picks which are the Q-rating only from the All pick listings in future ? I think the green line will be less stressful and have a slightly higher hit rate %, but I don't think over time it will be as profitable as the red line.
 
..... not actually following with money as a lot of this I have not had the time to follow closely and make a lot of what was going on. Maybe the picks will show things in a simple and more meaningful way. Yes please Paul. ;)
 
OK - a round-up of results since the last results list (on that disastrous Sunday last week). The results have pretty much caught up with the losses from that day and the system is now back to the highest it's been since it started. I think some of the tweaks and another filter I introduced a week ago are having an effect, and there have only been 4 low-odds losses across the 28 listed games for the week.
I have also had to remove the Bolivian game I mentioned in post #116 as it wasn't covered by BF (a shame as it finished with a 3-2 win, and so would have been a win for the system).

1577060084452.png
 
Updated and upcoming list - I have now colour-coded the Q-rated games green... as a reminder the Q-rated games are purely the ones selected by the system as scoring 7+ points in evaluation. The rest are strong 6-pointers that I think are also ripe for laying the draw (and which govern the red line on the graph). It is an understandably low list of games with Christmas just around the corner - I don't think there'll be any additions to this list until after Christmas looking at the fixture lists. Also, I have now added the Northern Ireland Premiership to the system... on the one hand it's a league that looks very good for the system statistically, but it is a relatively obscure league so I am not sure if it will get the money backing it needs to drive lay odds down;

1577061009459.png

Note the top-listed game is being played as I post this, with a single goal scored (currently HT)
 
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