• Hi Guest, The software has been updated but I have not had a chance to tweak anything yet.
    It took longer than I had hoped, so I just turned it on and hope everything is OK
    If you spot anything that does not look rigfhyt then please let me know.
    Ark Royal
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Draw laying system

paulb164

Colt
I'm going to trial a new system I have come up with... it isn't the traditional 'lay the draw' system where you lay the draw and then green up when a goal is scored. This will be a simple straight laying the draw plan where you just put a lay bet on the draw. For the in-players out there, or automation-betters, feel free to incorporate a back green bet if you want, although testing has shown the plan is quite robust to not really require it that often (though perhaps any matches with a 1-0 scoreline going into the last 10 mins of a game might want to put that as a green-up point).
I have created an XLS file that downloads games, analyses various parameters, and returns various matches that suit this system. The parameters are based on identifying comfortable home winners from specific leagues with both high home and low draw average records. It will also only return selections that sit within certain odds, which as part of the plan means that the lay exposure is kept to a minimum. Basically, the system ought to show a profit if it wins with 75% of it's picks. Most of the leagues I will be picking from average less than 20% draws, and the picking criteria should improve that further. I started using this with real money as of yesterday, and picked 3 winners from 3. The XLS itself is still a work in progress, and I am adding new leagues all the time - so the picks will be just a few at the start, but I expect that to increase as the leagues become relevant to the system and added.
I'll be keeping track of the betting which will be using Betfair, and all results will include the standard 5% commission.

So... today's games;
1572175584688.png
 

Delboy99

Colt
... I shall be interested to find out what happens here Paul. Looks a decent plan so hope it does the biz for you.Cheers.:)
 

paulb164

Colt
... I shall be interested to find out what happens here Paul. Looks a decent plan so hope it does the biz for you.Cheers.:)
LOL - me too... but today's results are not encouraging ! Still, one swallow does not make a Summer... I think it could be a good plan that might need some tweaking along the way.
 

paulb164

Colt
OK, so this weekend's results (which include the 3 games from yesterday I said I initially won with);

1572204676715.png

Not too bad for the opening weekend, and still in profit. I think it will improve as I add more leagues over time, and tweak the selection criteria.
 

paulb164

Colt
hmm... not looking good so far with this trial. One winner and one loser in the 2 games of the day, although the losing game did have a red card in the 2nd half for the team I was expecting to win. If not for that red card, this might have been a different post !
To compound my misery, I also had a goal bet on that game, which then finished 0-0 :violin:

So, this is the latest figures;
1572299568498.png
 

paulb164

Colt
2 wins from 3 still keep the system in profit (just). I have already identified a couple of minor tweaks that ought to improve results.

1572517255309.png
 

retriever

Filly
Hi Paul - Just popping in to say hello and to wish you Good luck with this system.
I am still just about keeping my head above water.....getting there slowly.
Funnily enough, I have, as a bedtime send-off / study, been working on a 'Back the Draw' system - polar opposite to here....lol.
Showing fair promise at the moment, but needs more refinement and time.
Hoping too also get HRB back soon and revive my Lays thread - I can't, in my head, get away from the thought that it was a little gold mine (especially if using BA).
I have created an XLS file that downloads games
As a quick side note, you wrote this in your OP post - how do you go about doing such a thing?
Can you point me in the general direction of info. on this please?
 
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paulb164

Colt
As a quick side note, you wrote this in your OP post - how do you go about doing such a thing?
Can you point me in the general direction of info. on this please?
For me, I download webpage tables into XLS spreadsheets, and then use various formulas to manipulate the data once it has downloaded. Once you set up the tables, you only need to click on the 'refresh' in the 'data' ribbon at the top for the XLS to re-download the tables if they have been updated themselves on the internet site (e.g. a fixture list that you can then refresh the next day to get a more recent list once the original games have been played). The site I mainly use is Soccervista which is good for this as it allows you to link small tables - not all websites are so accommodating with what it allows the public to take from their sites.

This guy (with a thick Indian accent) does explain it quite well -
 

retriever

Filly
Thanks Paul - that's brill !!
I am using the Forebet website for my Draw ideas, but I want to develop my own 'stand alone' database to be more self-reliant and independent in my predictions long term. I tried 'cut & paste' into my spreadsheets but it got too messy and cumbersome.
 

paulb164

Colt
Thanks Paul - that's brill !!
I am using the Forebet website for my Draw ideas, but I want to develop my own 'stand alone' database to be more self-reliant and independent in my predictions long term. I tried 'cut & paste' into my spreadsheets but it got too messy and cumbersome.
Urgh - I can imagine how messy and time-consuming as well ! With embedded tables, you just need to put the work in at the start with the XLS set-up, and from then on, just click 'refresh', and let the auto downloading and formulas do their thing ! Every morning I just 'refresh', go make a cuppa and it's up to date with analysis and picks by the time I return to the computer !
If you're trying to create a database, then I would suggest using Access to keep track of the data - another program you can link Excel to and which will import from in the same way.
 
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runnerjp

Filly
Hi Guys - Been away for a while now due to Work taking up most my life but managed to settle down and get some free time again.

If it helps I have a database that pulls results ect each day and happy to post a daily spreadsheet for you guys to speed things up. What stats would be looking for if so.

Also happy to provide advice on how i get this done in Python ect
 

retriever

Filly
Hi @runnerjp Thanks for your offer. As much as I'd love to dive head first into all of this, I also don't have the time to do so.
Paul has given me a great lead above (which has solved an immediate problem I had), and if I do need help with this, I'll call you to an appropriate part of this forum, if you don't mind.
I don't wish to commandeer paul's thread here...:D…..as I have a bad habit of doing.
PS. I use OpenOffice (don't have Excel) and my 'grip' on coding is very basic to say the least.....functions etc. ...lot to learn.
The database idea is the 'bigger' project and will have to wait until I have more time. Python looks interesting.
 

paulb164

Colt
Hi Guys - Been away for a while now due to Work taking up most my life but managed to settle down and get some free time again.

If it helps I have a database that pulls results ect each day and happy to post a daily spreadsheet for you guys to speed things up. What stats would be looking for if so.

Also happy to provide advice on how i get this done in Python ect
Thanks for the offer @runnerjp - while I am tweaking the XLS file at the moment (hence the lack of picks for the last few days), it is very automated already.
I do have another post for a 2.5 goal trial which on the other hand does require some manual labour on my part... if you fancy a project maybe ?
 

runnerjp

Filly
Thanks for the offer @runnerjp - while I am tweaking the XLS file at the moment (hence the lack of picks for the last few days), it is very automated already.
I do have another post for a 2.5 goal trial which on the other hand does require some manual labour on my part... if you fancy a project maybe ?
always up for project :)
 
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