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Draw laying system

paulb164

Colt
always up for project :)
LOL - if you really fancy it....

If you look at the first post, you will see what the trial parameters are. If used on their own, then it's not much of a profitable system (as shown in the trial). But apply a 1.85 odds filter, then it suddenly becomes profitable, and using the right leagues it could be a winning system. There's probably other areas where it could be developed further to make it more profitable, but open to suggestions ?
 

paulb164

Colt
An update on this.... I have had to tweak my file in a few places which was just as well as I then noticed a few discrepancies in some of the formulas that would have had an adverse effect of the picks. Needless to say, I tested the changes over the weekend just gone (annoyingly the last weekend before the international break, so won't be posting any picks for a little while), and picked 14 winners from 15 games and profited a little over £100 from £10 stakes ! Happy days.
So I will press the reset button and resume this in a week or so's time when the domestic season returns...
 
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retriever

Filly
I'm half heartedly working on a Draw selection method/system at the moment when I have time.
Just when I think 'lets give this a proper bash this weekend' - turns out it's an international weekend!! lol.....pain.
Finding results are, as the saying goes......a game of 2 halves...…I either get stunning results or they are an absolute flop.
Aiming for a 40%+ strike rate with my picks.
Good luck with this and your other threads/projects.
 

paulb164

Colt
I'm half heartedly working on a Draw selection method/system at the moment when I have time.
Just when I think 'lets give this a proper bash this weekend' - turns out it's an international weekend!! lol.....pain.
Finding results are, as the saying goes......a game of 2 halves...…I either get stunning results or they are an absolute flop.
Aiming for a 40%+ strike rate with my picks.
Good luck with this and your other threads/projects.
I find that the international breaks are the ideal time to set new things up... then the agonising wait for the domestics to start so you can see if it works.
This method is quite simple - it picks strong home favourites in either/both high home win leagues and low-draw leagues (although I am testing within this system just how high that draw percentage is that the system will let me pick without losing money). The 2 Croatian matches for example are are strong home favourites, but the league draw average is 32%.
In post #22 I mentioned picking 14 winning matches from 15 - I was a little stricter on the criteria then, and I may return to it if this weeks picks don't show a decent profit. Besides, I wanted to pick a slightly wider spread of games in order to build up some results to analyse and tweak with.
 
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paulb164

Colt
With regards to the #22 post, these are the games that the same search criteria picked... if anyone wants to put money on games in this thread, I would suggest limiting it to these games instead of the list above (there's an extra 13 games in the above list that almost make the criteria, which I included to see if the criteria can be tweaked to include them if they have the same success rate);

1575029694156.png

In order to gain a realistic trial, I'll be putting a £2 bet on all the above so I can record the odds that I'll get (although my spreadsheet reporting will record the P/L using £10 stakes to make it easier for calculating with). I think at some point I'll work out a ceiling for the odds as I don't want a losing bet on a game with astronomical odds to wipe out significant chunks of the profit.
 
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paulb164

Colt
Well, that turned out well so far... £10 stakes returning nearly £100 just from yesterday and today ! I might have gone over the £100 mark if the first game home team Banik Ostrava didn't earn a red card in the 41st minute, and then held on to a 0-0 draw ! Results as follows;

1575158489199.png
 

paulb164

Colt
There's a German Bundesliga 2 game in the above list playing today - Heidenheim v Greuther Fuerth... I've done a bit of research on this one, and now think it should be removed. It might not end as a draw, but it is in my opinion a bit suspect as a pick.
 
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retriever

Filly
I think you are right regarding the German game today.
And I definitely think you need to implement a ceiling here.
I know this is hindsight but look at the Chelsea v West Ham game going the other side of expectations with West Ham winning (10/1+).....easily could have been a draw for a loss of 6 pts.
Liverpool, with a red card, and Brighton pulling one back.....could have been two....for a loss of 6.5 pts
I think a lot of the top teams get 'tired' and 'complacent' with their domestic leagues if they are involved in Euro football.
But you never know unless you trial these things.
This thread interests me the most as I am doing the opposite (finding Draws) so I cross reference with your picks.
Good luck.
PS. I had Livingston v Hamilton (above) down as a draw yesterday in my Tipping Comp picks...…..I got 5 draws from 9 selections which I am quite pleased about. My system picks may have legs yet, and hopefully soon, I can start my own thread on these.
 
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paulb164

Colt
I think you are right regarding the German game today.
And I definitely think you need to implement a ceiling here.
I know this is hindsight but look at the Chelsea v West Ham game going the other side of expectations with West Ham winning (10/1+).....easily could have been a draw for a loss of 6 pts.
Liverpool, with a red card, and Brighton pulling one back.....could have been two....for a loss of 6.5 pts
I think a lot of the top teams get 'tired' and 'complacent' with their domestic leagues if they are involved in Euro football.
But you never know unless you trial these things.
This thread interests me the most as I am doing the opposite (finding Draws) so I cross reference with your picks.
Good luck.
couldn't agree more - if you look at all the games where the odds were 7.0+, there was just a single goal deciding the game. I suspected that I would need one, but it's just deciding where that ceiling should be to maximise profit
 
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paulb164

Colt
I am concerned with the Premier League for December - most teams will be playing 8-10 games in a month, so both fatigue and good squad depth/rotation is going to be key. Not really a league to look for stability in December methinks... how often do you hear unfancied teams having good Christmas period results (considering they probably won't be playing Euro football or cup matches) ?
 

retriever

Filly
I wonder if that could be a possible filter criteria - put an asterisk (*) against all those teams that are involved in Euro football and see if there has been any detriment to the results over the next couple of months. As opposed to a ceiling filter based purely on the odds (or in addition too).
 

paulb164

Colt
I think you are right regarding the German game today.
And I definitely think you need to implement a ceiling here.
I know this is hindsight but look at the Chelsea v West Ham game going the other side of expectations with West Ham winning (10/1+).....easily could have been a draw for a loss of 6 pts.
Liverpool, with a red card, and Brighton pulling one back.....could have been two....for a loss of 6.5 pts
I think a lot of the top teams get 'tired' and 'complacent' with their domestic leagues if they are involved in Euro football.
But you never know unless you trial these things.
This thread interests me the most as I am doing the opposite (finding Draws) so I cross reference with your picks.
Good luck.
PS. I had Livingston v Hamilton (above) down as a draw yesterday in my Tipping Comp picks...…..I got 5 draws from 9 selections which I am quite pleased about. My system picks may have legs yet, and hopefully soon, I can start my own thread on these.
The Livingston v Hamilton match only just crept in to the trial, and on reflection I should not have included it based on league positions and past performance (similar to today's Bundesliga 2 game)... similar games won't be included in future.
 

paulb164

Colt
I wonder if that could be a possible filter criteria - put an asterisk (*) against all those teams that are involved in Euro football and see if there has been any detriment to the results over the next couple of months. As opposed to a ceiling filter based purely on the odds (or in addition too).
I tend to discard teams playing in Europe with their games immediately before and after their European games. As this trial is in it's infancy, I have included them because without that, you can't necessarily see if it has an effect. Clearly (at least with the Chelsea game) there was a hangover of sorts... but then you can also say if they have an off-day because of their respective calendars, then they will get beat, which also plays into the system's hands.
There is a certain robustness to the system, as it does rely quite a lot on the fact that the leagues I pick from are statistically low-draw leagues. If there is any influence from the European calendar (i.e. draws because of it), then it ought to show in those draw statistics.
 
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retriever

Filly
does rely quite a lot on the fact that the leagues I pick from are statistically low-draw leagues
I have to agree with that.....I'm finding the English Premiership the hardest to comfortably select draws from...….conversely, the English Championship appears to be the most stable.
But more interestingly, Cup matches are a happy hunting ground for my method with teams looking for just a point to qualify or a match replay.
My method is 'thinking outside the box' in a way, as most people want their teams to Win and nobody specifically wants a draw and so odds are slightly enhanced on the exchanges. Also the 'Lay the Draw' brigade push the draw price out slightly at the start of the match :D
Low scoring games help my cause too......0-0, 1-1
You can reverse think this and it may help your cause.
 

paulb164

Colt
I have to agree with that.....I'm finding the English Premiership the hardest to comfortably select draws from...….conversely, the English Championship appears to be the most stable.
But more interestingly, Cup matches are a happy hunting ground for my method with teams looking for just a point to qualify or a match replay.
My method is 'thinking outside the box' in a way, as most people want their teams to Win and nobody specifically wants a draw and so odds are slightly enhanced on the exchanges. Also the 'Lay the Draw' brigade push the draw price out slightly at the start of the match :D
Low scoring games help my cause too......0-0, 1-1
You can reverse think this and it may help your cause.
Yep - the lower the goal average for the league, then the higher tendency for a draw to happen. Check out the link on Soccervista;


It may give you an idea on what leagues to work within to increase your own draw picks ? Maybe concentrate on leagues with both low goal and high draw percentages ?
 

retriever

Filly
Thanks for Soccervista...
Heidenheim v Greuther Fuerth game finished 1 - 0.......so that kind of confuses things.....lol.....although penalty missed by Fuerth on 7 minutes.
 

paulb164

Colt
I wonder if that could be a possible filter criteria - put an asterisk (*) against all those teams that are involved in Euro football and see if there has been any detriment to the results over the next couple of months. As opposed to a ceiling filter based purely on the odds (or in addition too).
LOL - case in point... first 2 games on the list played, and both resulted in draws. The Juventus v Sassuolo game finished 2-2 - Euro hangover for the Italian champions ? They were a little under 7.0 odds for the draw, and with the other loser of the day so far, that's almost all of my profit gained yesterday wiped out !
 

paulb164

Colt
Thanks for Soccervista...
Heidenheim v Greuther Fuerth game finished 1 - 0.......so that kind of confuses things.....lol.....although penalty missed by Fuerth on 7 minutes.
I'm picking games based on strong favourites... when it's just 1 goal between the two sides that decide the game, then it casts a bit of doubt on the selection process ? Mind you, if it was such an overwhelming favourite, then (as in Juventus's game today) it only takes one draw at high lay odds to mess the whole profit margin !
 
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