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Draw laying system

retriever

Filly
Yes, it's a difficult one. It's finding that balance and happy medium between the two extremes. If it was easy, we'd all be rich!!

That's why I think I prefer to find Draws, as opposed to laying them - a bit more straight forward. You are either right or wrong.
The Strike rate and ROI is easier to work with as well. If the price of a Draw is on average 9/4 (2.25) I only need 1 in 3 matches for a profit.
I intend to use BA for my bets too, where I will get out of the match if it's a draw around the 85th minute (1.1 - 1.15).
May lose a bit here, but I think it will be compensated against the late goal around 90 minutes that causes a draw not to be. ( ie. 1-0, 2-1, etc.)

Got off to a good start in Tipping Comp today - two FA Cup matches both Drawing (and in my head I had the correct scores too).
Of course, all this happens when I don't put any money on......doh!!
But paper trading and system edge work must be done first.

Don't know if you are familiar with this area, but take a look on You Tube at 'Mark Douglas How to think like a professional trader 4 of 4' which relates to trading in financial markets etc. but easily correlates to the betting markets.......I found it very useful and thought-provoking.
 
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paulb164

Colt
Today's results are in, and though there were some substantial single hit losses, the P/L still shows a reasonably decent £68.80 profit with £10 stakes. You'll see from the graph that there are three lines; the red line is for all the picks I listed, the blue line is with an odds limit filter of 6.1 (I wanted to see the effect of just picking matches which didn't expose the trial to high odds in case of losses), and the green line, which is a slightly tighter qualifying criteria. It seems that at this moment, including all matches in my listings has proved the one with the highest return.

1575235499920.png
 

paulb164

Colt
@retriever - of the 42 listed games for the weekend, there were 12 teams involved that had European games in the week... only Juventus managed to get a draw. After looking at the match report, it seemed that their experienced keeper Buffon uncharacteristically gifted the away team a goal;

(From the BBC website) "An error by veteran goalkeeper Gianluigi Buffon saw Juventus held by Sassuolo at Allianz Stadium. Leonardo Bonucci opened the scoring after 20 minutes with a deflected strike before Jeremie Boga's deft chip levelled the scores shortly after. The away side then took the lead just after the interval as Buffon fumbled Francesco Caputo's effort into the net. Cristiano Ronaldo was on hand to equalise and save his team's blushes with a penalty with 22 minutes left."

Of the remainder 11 matches, 2 of them went to the away team.

Another statistic worth noting is that 2 games resulted in a 0-0 draw... in both occasions the home team received a red card. With that in mind, it might be worthwhile in future to green up/exit out of the game straight away to avoid a goalless game from that point onwards ?
 

retriever

Filly
Looks like the European angle can be ignored then going by those stats for the moment.

Red cards obviously have an effect on a match but how many of the matches overall had red card but did not result in a draw?
Worth keeping an eye on.
From a 'traders mentality' it's probably right to 'stop loss' out of those games if there is a red card.
Is it possible to do so via BA automation (assuming one is not following the matches live)?

By the way, the gist of the Mark Douglas video I mentioned above says that you should run with the whole sample size of your 'edge', in it's entirety, without placing your own thoughts and emotions upon the selections - which would be what your Red line on the graph constitutes.
 

runnerjp

Filly
OK so been busy over last few weeks sorting out a database that now pulls results each day from a fair few league- also goes back to 2010 for back testing.

I am now onto the main part so pulling the stats on league and then can back test it as pulled BF prices. Will pull the league stats on draws and home then do some review across specific odds ranges. (I am doing this in between a trading project)
 

paulb164

Colt
Looks like the European angle can be ignored then going by those stats for the moment.

Red cards obviously have an effect on a match but how many of the matches overall had red card but did not result in a draw?
Worth keeping an eye on.
From a 'traders mentality' it's probably right to 'stop loss' out of those games if there is a red card.
Is it possible to do so via BA automation (assuming one is not following the matches live)?
Yup - it appears that luck to some extent will have a hand to play in the success of this system... without so far examining the other losers, the 3 that I have looked at have had a red card each and a keeper calamity to spoil the results. This does at least give me some comfort that the system is reasonably sound since the results were influenced by unexpected (or more accurately, something you can't plan for) events - the system could benefit from some sort of exit strategy, though I'm not sure at this stage how to write that into the automation as BA doesn't at the moment monitor the game for red cards, etc. I'm going to have a search through the BA forum - I'm sure football market exit strategies will have been discussed in depth somewhere there.

As far as red cards go, only 2 other games had them... Liverpool v BHA (which the home team won), and Zenit v Spartak Moscow (also won) and in both cases resulted in a 1 goal margin win for the system. What I can draw from that, I'm not sure. But if I exited/greened up as soon as they happened, I'd be richer as the 0-0 games would have a small loss, and the 2 games with reds (Zenit and Liverpool) who were in a winning position when they occurred would have offset the losses as the odds would be much lower than when the market was entered.
 
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paulb164

Colt
Please see below a revised list for the upcoming games, with more added to the original one from earlier (with 9 qualifiers for tomorrow instead of the 6 mentioned beforehand);

1575368100155.png

I'm starting to research S American leagues to see if I can expand the league amounts I currently check, and Bolivia looks to be a decent one with a couple of games that may get added to the list for tomorrow night - will update tomorrow.
 

paulb164

Colt
Just over halfway through the night's games, and looking good with 4 wins from 4 games. There was a moment of panic earlier with the Partizan Belgrade v Napredak match with the game approaching the final whistle at 2-2... the lay odds were accepted pre-match at 10.5 ! And then, in the 95th minute, a goal went in for the away side !!! I have to say I raced onto the Betfair site to green up, but it turned out to be the last kick of the match, and ended immediately after. In one fell swoop it would have wiped 2/3 (nearly £100) of the profit away... and really impressed upon me the need for an odds filter to make the strategy more stable and less susceptible to big single losses.

1575491823940.png

I usually only fully evaluate new strategies once I have at least 100 results, but also review it about half-way, which is where I am now. I am warming to the idea of personally using an odds filter (as I am putting money on these picks myself), even though it isn't currently performing as good as games that qualify without any restrictions. It only takes one bad game at huge odds to make a huge impact to P/L, and will make for a roller coaster ride for the strategy as a whole. There will be quite a few games with high lay odds, as I am picking a high percentage of home favourites. The filter showing in the chart is set at 6.6, which is the optimum performance for the picks/results so far. When I get to 100 results, I will look again to see where the optimum filter needs to be.
 

paulb164

Colt
!!! Just noticed - the lay odds on the Celtic v Hamilton game is a staggering 17.0 :eek:

I know they are currently 1-0 up at HT, but I am going to green up on this one ! Just when I was thinking of including an odds filter - now I'm certain I have to put a sensible one in on all my future bets !
 

paulb164

Colt
just a side note on the Celtic game... just put a 25p liability bet lay on Celtic as it is still 1-0 with 10 mins to play... Celtic should still win judging by the game statistics, but you never know !
 

retriever

Filly
Yes, I definitely think you need a ceiling / odds filter here.
Some of these Lay odds frighten the life out of me, even for small stakes.
I had trouble 'getting my head around' laying my horses between odds of Evens to 6/4 (up to 2/1)…🤣
 

paulb164

Colt
just a side note on the Celtic game... just put a 25p liability bet lay on Celtic as it is still 1-0 with 10 mins to play... Celtic should still win judging by the game statistics, but you never know !
OMG !!! Celtic v Hamilton... 1-1 with 3 minutes to play ! :eek: Green up time !
 
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