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UKBF Common Race

tacker

Mare
you love it - none of your airy fairy 3 year old races here
Only an idiot would bother to do the work on such a stupid race and now i read that i've chosen the same bloody horse as you, a bit like voting with trump...................IMPEACHED AGAIN !!!............sad in it !
 

markfinn

Sire
Wrong thread i know but how stupid is Steve Bruce ? Newcastle have a much better bunch of footballers but he chooses to defend.
Next manager to go 7/2 ?
Dont like to bet against a blokes living - he is a nice bloke - I would say what were Ole's chances earlier this season
 

Samacas

Mare
3:40 Catterick - Frightened Rabbit

Although I would class as a 'summer horse' soft ground is preferred and likes to take it from the front
Daniel McMenamin has won 3 times and 2nd twice with him in H'cap hurdles
323 days since last run but has run well after long layoffs in the past so the current 10-1 could be a decent e/w risk
 

pawras

Gelding
Haven't been on this thread for a good while , some nice winners :handgestures-thumbup:

For the 15:40 Catterick I'll be focusing on the top 2 on my card but probs a bit on Set In Stone as well, however I'm wondering why Hereia is currently 3/1 fav on betfair.

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It's a subject i've never really thought about before @
doomster
doomster but that' is an interesting point, guessing again but if i was a trainer and thought there was a good 7lb claimer attached to the yard maybe you wouldn't want to waste it on apprentice races , this might be flawed thinking but worth remembering.

It could be a saddo quiz question in years to come T tacker , although there are still a few months to run.

"Who won the a/w apprentice championship without riding a winner in an apprentice race ?"

I think I'd be on Ghiani if there was a market on it, if he avoids any bans.
 

markfinn

Sire
It's a subject i've never really thought about before doomster doomster but that' is an interesting point, guessing again but if i was a trainer and thought there was a good 7lb claimer attached to the yard maybe you wouldn't want to waste it on apprentice races , this might be flawed thinking but worth remembering.
Yes and no - with the prize money being what it is - the betting market is probably more valuable - is it more case of dodging the claimers and using the claim when none others have the advantage
 

tacker

Mare
Yes and no - with the prize money being what it is - the betting market is probably more valuable - is it more case of dodging the claimers and using the claim when none others have the advantage
Don't know is the honest answer and trying to second guess gambling yards is difficult at best but if you recall the fuss about Oisin Murphy when he was claiming 5lb and that number was generally considered to be a bonus providing other form factors were also in their favour.
I don't believe L Pearson is anything special so the claim isn't such a gift imo but nevertheless the logic stands up if you can choose the right apprentice.
 

markfinn

Sire
Don't know is the honest answer and trying to second guess gambling yards is difficult at best but if you recall the fuss about Oisin Murphy when he was claiming 5lb and that number was generally considered to be a bonus providing other form factors were also in their favour.
I don't believe L Pearson is anything special so the claim isn't such a gift imo but nevertheless the logic stands up if you can choose the right apprentice.
that claim can be misleading to some it will be a great advantage to some ( those in a rush will only want to ride winners) - others not so - one eye on the apprentice championship's would be advised


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mick

Sire
I note there was no common race today so here is one for the optimists in the lucky last this evening. I messed up by placing most of my wedge yesterday @ 16/1. Today she went on the drift being 28/1 with WH earlier. Currently B365 are still 20/1. An egg on the face job awaits but at these prices i can live with this. :)

Sat 16th Kemp 8.20 : Sepahi @ 16/1

A 7 fur 0-70 with 10 run. This one has the looks of a forlorn hoper with her four runs this season being dire, and its possible that a physical or mental problem has developed which will mean same again here. But in three of those runs she was minus the CPs which where used for her three most recent wins ( back on here ) and Lto was an unsuitable race where after a slow away she was eased right down. The SPs which where between 66/1 - 18/1 also suggest that nothing positive was expected or planned.

As a result she has dropped 10lbs since Aug and contests here @ 3lbs below her last winning mark which came over 6 fur here in a 0-75. She has won at this trip elsewhere but this will be her first try over 7 fur in a Hcap at Kemp a course where she has scored twice over 6 fur on both occasions attracting comments of ran on and kept on well so the 7 fur should not prevent especially as she is ridden held up. Both Kemp wins came on the current SS surface and this also shows as a positive in her AW breeding stats.

The small stable have not had a winner since last Oct which must be a concern but they have trained the Mare for her last three wins and Kemp is there most productive course. The rider is 3-9 on the animal and Kemp is by far his most winsome track. She is my only plus rated in the race so it really comes down to a gamble on stable form and genuine regression or OTT gaming.?

Re the former although its not an idea i can buy into the RP say that 70% of the stables horses have run to rating during the past fortnight and i do note that two of there recent runners have only been done a len. Re the latter i note that in the race prior to her most recent win Sepahi was bt 21 lens. After my first look at the profile i had decided to swerve but returning to same i am now thinking a good price might enable an interest.

WH are already up @ 10/1 but i will need better than this to temp the play. Plunger who i backed lto also participates so perhaps part of the perverse attraction comes from embracing the fear of being done over by Mr Bloody Evans. I set a minimum price of 16/1 which is now available so game on.
 
Looks like the price has been smashed mick mick

I've got an alert for Perfect Sunset after her 2nd place with wind op and !st tt, but didn't back that run up

She had a high head carriage lto and she could ruin the pace angle for my other pick, but now touching 30.0 , i'd have to cove her with a 10% stake.

Stringybark Creek is short in the market, so I'd expect a drift even allowing for stable form, as he's in stall 10.

Gets !st time blinkers, has won from a wider draw over C&D before ( off a 5lb higher mark) and obviously stable in great form.

He was well beaten in this event last year off 7lb higher, which actually looks a stronger race, but what does have to be considered is he had an impossible task trying to for the lead with the winner Heironymous. Not only did the winner have the plum draw, he was thrown in with hindsight and now rated 27lb higher.

The trip could have been an issue lto and whilst he could gets early pace pressure, I do feel obliged to cover the Loughnane/ Ryan combo, as I sense of loyalty for what they have provided this year.
 

markfinn

Sire
Having spent most of the afternoon looking at Tony Carrolls charges - I assumed that9yr Chetan would have jumped out only 38 DSLR combined with not the best draw puts me of and a LB or so of will set him up NXT out - Dont like the plunger OR is to high for him -

3 -4yrlds I had a dream and Perfect Sunset both none winners - Love Destiny stable going well good man up - proven winner Novice Auctions - First go on the AW , a long travel for him and the only runner from the stable here - best drawn to boot. Probably travelled down here with Huraiz who could only manage 3rd at 5/1 earlier at Lingfield

If pressed I would go with - Love Destiny
 
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