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UKBF Common Race

primrose4

Yearling
This is a good race to rate. I have rated three in the race.
One of the favourites in Lihou may have problems in carrying
this weight. Muthabby will be a threat to all the other runners.
The horse should have no trouble in carrying the weight. Could
just fall short on class of one or two of the others.

My selection is Jack the Truth. A most consistent sort, this horse
needs a Cl 4 to show its true abilities. To often the horse is caught
out in a Cl 3 when it is up against superior horses.

I would like to place a bet upon Jack the Truth, but this is dependent
upon Winds of Fire obliging in the 2.50 at Hereford.
 
Red Alert couldn’t possibly win at 80/1, could he? Not impossible but very unlikely considering he has shown nothing for over a year now, he keeps dropping in handicap though and booking of Probert for first time is interesting. I think he might not finish last as the odds suggest but still can’t back him.

My selection in race is another with the jockey angle, The Daley Express, who gets the services of Richard Kingscote for first time. Kingscote is going through best spell of his career in terms of number of winners, having notched up 22 over last 4 weeks, and I think he will be keen to further extend his lead at top of AW jockeys championship table. TDE is returning from 44-day break but two of his wins have come after a very similar break including his only CD win (class 4, Sept 2019) from a 6 lbs higher mark than today came after a 40-day break. One negative is his overall course record of 1 from 12, and he has been beaten 6 times here since that win, but it is possible to find excuses. 4 of those runs (including a couple in class 2 & 3) came when he was out of form, or they were working the handicap mark off in other words as it was touching 90s after that win. He returned to form when his mark dropped to 75, and he got a win off that mark at Nottingham and although he was only 5th (off 82) at same track next time I don’t think that was a bad run either. Finished a close 3rd here last time off same mark as today, but is 7 lbs better off with winner Mutabaahy for 1 length defeat. It’s a competitive race, so couldn’t be confident but I think TDE has a good chance of going close.
 
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markfinn

Sire
I would be all over Verne excepting at 8 you need no negatives and he has the negative draw - so going to suggest Mutaabaahy - in form trainer runs two in this ? always a concern - the horse looks to be right at the top of his range but at 5yr he can go a bit better, Winning claimer 5lb Russel Harvey up, has likes to be held up but there is plenty of pace in the race and hopefully he will get a covered up tow round the bend and the race can open for him - this would give him a 7th win at Wolves

 

markfinn

Sire
Red Alert couldn’t possibly win at 80/1, could he? Not impossible but very unlikely considering he has shown nothing for over a year now, he keeps dropping in handicap though and booking of Probert for first time is interesting. I think he might not finish last as the odds suggest but still can’t back him.
Never shown on the going but back on a winning mark - easier surface to race on for ageing joints - never discount the intentions of trainer - runs two here - I think he the top jockey up - who would you prefer Probert or Marquand , the later has good record with the horse( only female in the race) so Jockey choice is possibly not a good guide - limited field so not ridiculous to place bet him at those odds -
Looking at his recent odds the intention has not there

1610378759548.png
8/1 last win - Brighton - Goods 5F 215yd notice that hid best is 6F and if it prevails here this would be his shortest race win - not by much but even so dropped in D - Plum Drawn as well ?

I have it second bottom, so not for me, but appreciate the comments - the trainer is one that I look at as being a gamer and he knows the game.
 
Never shown on the going but back on a winning mark - easier surface to race on for ageing joints - never discount the intentions of trainer - runs two here - I think he the top jockey up - who would you prefer Probert or Marquand , the later has good record with the horse( only female in the race) so Jockey choice is possibly not a good guide - limited field so not ridiculous to place bet him at those odds -
Looking at his recent odds the intention has not there

View attachment 93950
8/1 last win - Brighton - Goods 5F 215yd notice that hid best is 6F and if it prevails here this would be his shortest race win - not by much but even so dropped in D - Plum Drawn as well ?

I have it second bottom, so not for me, but appreciate the comments - the trainer is one that I look at as being a gamer and he knows the game.
Thanks for that markfinn markfinn . I looked at Carroll’s record with really long priced ones (40/1+) and it’s only 2 wins from about thousand runners since 2012, and both those were at the lowest level of classified stakes, so I don’t think today’s the day for Red Alert. I will be interested to see how he runs though, if he can finish 4th/5th in this good race that may indicate that winning day is not too far away. I noticed Probert (was up for first time) rode a 66/1 4th for Carroll few days ago, forgot the name of horse.
 

markfinn

Sire
Thanks for that markfinn markfinn . I looked at Carroll’s record with really long priced ones (40/1+) and it’s only 2 wins from about thousand runners since 2012, and both those were at the lowest level of classified stakes, so I don’t think today’s the day for Red Alert. I will be interested to see how he runs though, if he can finish 4th/5th in this good race that may indicate that winning day is not too far away. I noticed Probert (was up for first time) rode a 66/1 4th for Carroll few days ago, forgot the name of horse.
Tony Carrol's is a stable of interest along with D Evans - K Tutty - R Bastiman - have to get up early to spot what is happening
 

hedgehog

Mare
I think this time round its more likely apprehension or fear, but i take your point and its well made. However there does need to be a balance because when a member is perceived to be going astray then it can prove the best thing for all concerned when this is mentioned to them. ?
Hello mick mick , as ever you take a balanced view. You're right and a simple one liner response I think would have been sufficient as a correction. January is by far the grumpiest month of the year.

Very well done with your winner. When I saw that you had won I realised the bookies would feel that in there bottom line this month, made me smile. Very well done again
 

mick

Sire
January is by far the grumpiest month of the year.
Have to say that virus aside ( at any time ) i have no problem with January, its the extended heat waves which tend to make me grumpy. We have swerved one of these so far this month, but to my mind the positive about British weather is that it seldom gets boring so who knows. :)
 

mick

Sire
I note no common race for today and was in part reluctant to post my below because the 12/1 has now gone. While not after timing as such because i made the post at 8.20 am yesterday on another part of the forum it is still not helpful as the market currently stands. However i feel its an interesting race which should produce multiple thoughts and selections from members so here goes nothing. :)

Tue 12th Newc 4.0 : Rathbone @ 12/1

A 7 fur 0-95 with 12 run. An arse about face job for me because i first needed to ponder the rider. Oisin McSweeney a 7lb claimer who has yet to ride a winner. The 19yo has been riding in Ireland and has three 2nds to date. Last autumn he had two rides in this country for my selections stable. Not good news on balance especially so in a 0-95 and i was inclined to swerve the bet because of this, but two years ago owing to similar circumstances i missed out on what would have been a 33/1 EP winner. It might well prove the case that the trainer has put him up with no intentions of being concerned in the finish and yet the horses chance is sound and made sweeter still by the resulting net 8-9. I have decided to let the price make the call which might mean this will not get posted but i am used to that.!

Rathbone does have the makings showing @ +2 off my numbers with the rating obtained from his excellent CD run off OR 90 19Feb20 this followed his only other try at same which was a 2nd in this race last year (on this SS surface) with RI reporting "fared best of the closers in a muddling race and deserves plenty of credit". This was after a 109 day return and although running off a break appears a positive this time the 54 day absence should better suit. Having won one of these 0-95 grades on turf in 2019 he failed to score last year although did run well in defeat on more than one occasion, but other than the latter race mentioned above he ran up in the OR Nineties and he contests here off OR 89. His 5-12 draw does not appear helpful but this may not prevent as he is generally ridden held up.

Tbh i do not like the trainer who imo pushes the Gaming boundaries but he does have plenty of winners. The stable appears slow at present but at time of writing there most recent runner which was here at Newc was only done a nk, and its interesting to note that longer term (past 14 yrs) Jan has produced there 2nd highest S/r at 20% with the all in avg being 12%. I keep coming back to why book this boy when in theory the horse should not need the claim to win. While it might be a ready made future excuse for a pre planned not off run, the alternative possibility is first hand knowledge of the riders potential and a smart ploy to enhance the price as well as the chance.? ...... With no other possible for myself in the race the early doors 12/1 now offered by WH appeals as a decent starting point and justifies the play.
 
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