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UKBF Common Race

markfinn

markfinn

Sire
Created for all the post so please do you can go in-depth or keep it short the deeper you go the more all will gain but that’s not a rule just add your thoughts - todays race 13.45 Lingfield my horse Captain Navarre ticks all the box’s and connections trainer etc best in the race
 
Royal Reserve’s best form comes from two races back when third to 106 rated Soldier of Fortune. He finished in front of two horses rated 90 and 93 respectively and was 3ls in front of Continium and is 2lbs worse off with that rival today. Royal Reserve’s form can be upgraded as every winner bar one raced prominently that night and before him only two horses that were held up had placed. Royal Reserve was dropped back to 12f at Newcastle last time where the market told you he wasn’t off. The problem Royal Reserve has is there is virtually no pace in this.

There are likely only to be two on the front end here, Aristocles and Captain Navarre. Aristocles hasn’t been seen on the level since October 2016 when beaten 6ls in a 0-85 by Withhold off 72. He probably has a race in him but his sights will need to be lowered.

Captain Navarre has been transformed by the application of a visor winning his last two off marks of 75 and 81. He is up to 85 now but his last win was in a 0-85 as well and he could well dictate this from the front.

Island Brave is another hold up horse who is a 4yo in a few days but still gets 6lbs WFA allowance. He steps up to 16f for the first time but being a son of Zebedee it is a big ask as the progeny of that sire are 1-52 beyond 12f. 48 of those were under the NH code but he still 0-4 with his progeny on the flat beyond 12f. He is 0-24 on polytrack beyond 8f with just three places.

Rydan stayed on well behind 85 rated Sunblazer last time at Kempton but he is 0-9 going left handed. He did finish second to Sennockian Star over 12f at Lingfield in January but he didn’t want to go past even though he travelled much better than the winner. He is another hold up horse but if the cheekpieces work as they did last time, none will be travelling as well in the home straight but he needs something to aim at and he has to be delivered as late as possible. He is on a losing run of 13 yet he is still on the same mark of 85.
 
To show willing but have to say I don't really understand why a new thread is needed. This is a race I wouldn't have looked at as it fails in all my requirements, not enough runners low class horses and prize money and very tight prices etc.

As I don't record any a/w figures on my d/base some of this has to be guess work on my part. This applies to even the form reading as I know nothing about the a/w tracks and or the running requirements needed to act on them. I make
Rydan the class horse followed by Island Brave but as I said there is a fair bit of guess work here. Looking at his profile he does seem to have a fairly strong right hand bias but the trainer/jockey know that and must think they can sort that out. Here I working on the assumption they think he is unexposed and can be improved. He has the right jockey to produce him late and he rode him last time out. My understanding is Island Brave even if he stays there is plenty to find class wise . There is no way on this earth I would put money down on a race like this and at least when I put up races there are usually three or more to chose from and that is why I ask why the need for a new thread? If a gun was put to my head I would have to side with Rydan but with a bit of luck no guns are allowed on the forum

I make the probables 1 Captain Navarre 2 Island Brave 3 Rydan This is just about the only factor I can work out with any certainty

Be Lucky
 
I have not worked this race so can offer nothing of use.It has a strange look to it with three trainers running off 10-0.?
 
mlmrob said:
Interesting Chesham Chesham as he has only made all once, round here granted, but they must be seeing something I'm not, which for me is worrying as I just can't see it.
Click to expand...

The TF last three races are 4 which would agree with your asessment, its seems that they are going back as there are a couple of 3’s and 1’s
 
Hello all,

can I have a go. I've quickly looked at the 13.45 and haven't pumped the data into my spreadsheets yet. I'm interested in rydan, captain navarre and island brave. To be safe my suggestion would be a book of captain navarre and island brave, though I'd prefer a little extra on island brave.

Excellent thread

Good luck today
 
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