-
Hi Guest, The forum will be moving hosts on 26 July and as such will be closed from Midday until the move has completed. As we will be with new hosts it may take a while before DNS get updated so it could take while before you can get back on the forum. I think it will take at least 4 hours but could easily be 48! Ark Royal
-
Sorry for the ongoing issues that you may have been experiencing whilst using the forum lately It really is frustrating when the forum slows down or Server Error 500 pops up. Apparently the hosts acknowledge there is a problem. Thank you for using our services and sorry for the experienced delay! Unfortunately, these errors are due to a higher server load. Our senior department knows about the issue and they are working towards a permanent resolution of the issue, however, I'd advise you to consider using our new cPanel cloud solutions: https://www.tsohost.com/web-hosting I will have to investigate what the differences are with what We have know compared to the alternative service they want us to migrate to. Keep safe. AR
UKBF Common Race
- Thread starter markfinn
- Start date
markfinn
Sire
Home Schooling - today - apt current name for a race horse so got to be brief -
6yr Diocles of Rome trainer form great - young jockey retains her last win ride which was here CD (one of 5 claimers in the race -three 7lb claimers and two 5lb ers ) going well - she has few problems with bends so that not going to apply today - same ownership throughout racing life the horse can win this and just about remain in class , looks to be around its top rating so this may well be the race before the games start.
6yr Diocles of Rome trainer form great - young jockey retains her last win ride which was here CD (one of 5 claimers in the race -three 7lb claimers and two 5lb ers ) going well - she has few problems with bends so that not going to apply today - same ownership throughout racing life the horse can win this and just about remain in class , looks to be around its top rating so this may well be the race before the games start.
Emptymind
Yearling
Ok 1st Number 11 Wheres Mick, 2nd Number 5 Dawaaleeb 3rd Number 6 Rathbone 4th Number 2 Diocles Of Rome.
First off i don't look at the market so i have no knowledge of prices other than i know a few of the horses here. I imagine Dawaaleeb is shortest of these. I started off producing mu own pace map based on previous positions when they are level with the cameras at Cd about 30 seconds in. I then estimate how far off the lead they are. If no CD run i use C run and estimate. If no C run i use distance runs and estimate. From this i could see the pace is going to be weak so that eliminated half the field for me (from winning).I then look at breeding more specifically sire and damsire stats at distance. I eliminated three on that basis. I then look at course form. Course form is King at this track. I'm not too worried about marks/grade as they improve for a straight tapeta surface or they just don't like it. I feel 7f is a specialist distance so i like to see good 7f form as well. At this point i thought it was between Rathbone and Wheres Mick. I didn't like the o/17 Jockey stats and decided they're just having a look coming back with a top jockey next time. Wheres Mick came 2nd here over CD to Brunch who's now rated 100. It got beaten 2.5L so i based my thinking on that run. I like it when they have early CD form then come back later. Fahey does well here. Dawaaleeb will lead off a slow pace and could steal it.
Ok i will go look at the prices now. It might be a case where the hell is Mick in the market.
First off i don't look at the market so i have no knowledge of prices other than i know a few of the horses here. I imagine Dawaaleeb is shortest of these. I started off producing mu own pace map based on previous positions when they are level with the cameras at Cd about 30 seconds in. I then estimate how far off the lead they are. If no CD run i use C run and estimate. If no C run i use distance runs and estimate. From this i could see the pace is going to be weak so that eliminated half the field for me (from winning).I then look at breeding more specifically sire and damsire stats at distance. I eliminated three on that basis. I then look at course form. Course form is King at this track. I'm not too worried about marks/grade as they improve for a straight tapeta surface or they just don't like it. I feel 7f is a specialist distance so i like to see good 7f form as well. At this point i thought it was between Rathbone and Wheres Mick. I didn't like the o/17 Jockey stats and decided they're just having a look coming back with a top jockey next time. Wheres Mick came 2nd here over CD to Brunch who's now rated 100. It got beaten 2.5L so i based my thinking on that run. I like it when they have early CD form then come back later. Fahey does well here. Dawaaleeb will lead off a slow pace and could steal it.
Ok i will go look at the prices now. It might be a case where the hell is Mick in the market.
markfinn
Sire
doomster - have you lost something Police investigate drone crash near Chepstow on Welsh Grand National day | Horse Racing News | Racing Post
A drone crash next to Chepstow racecourse on Saturday has
Frontrunner
Filly
Posted it on the wrong thread.
No bet for me in the race, but if I had to pick one I will go with the consistent Spiorad who has been knocking on the door from low draws over a mile here. Drawn high today, and drop to 7 for first time interesting, not sure it’s a positive or negative but he usually runs his race and form of 2nd last race working out well. Up in class and Tudhope not riding even though he is at Newcastle, so enough doubts for me to not have a bet.
No bet for me in the race, but if I had to pick one I will go with the consistent Spiorad who has been knocking on the door from low draws over a mile here. Drawn high today, and drop to 7 for first time interesting, not sure it’s a positive or negative but he usually runs his race and form of 2nd last race working out well. Up in class and Tudhope not riding even though he is at Newcastle, so enough doubts for me to not have a bet.
doomster
Dam
markfinn ,I can never forget walking the dog in the local woods and watching a guy flying his brand new remote control helicopter, which hadn't been correctly tuned in to his remote.The sight of it flying away in the distance whilst he's actually thinking he can catch it on foot was hysterical.
The following day the area had Little signs dotted about that you normally see for the lost cat, but with a picuture of the helicopter
mick
Sire
He did challenge a bit sooner than i expected but i think was running with serious intention. Well done Wigham but a big drifter ? what can i say another bloody Mick.My wife for some strange reasonmick wanted something called a conversation whilst yur race was on .
Whilst I dared to look at the screen, I thought Rathbone was looking to have every chance.
markfinn
Sire
on a roll 14/1
Frontrunner
Filly
That was Wigham’s first winner since last June, run of 55 losers, his longest losing run in last 10 years at least. Might get some more winners now that losing run has ended, Verne Castle is due a win.
markfinn
Sire
Verne possibly could have won yesterday given a better draw
mick
Sire
Still a good post and effort.That went well.
markfinn
Sire
Trainers red are not my current list so of they go - the Herds Garden course winner here last month in a class G which has has taken the horse upto 109 a win here puts it well out of his league and therefore penalised beyond where it can it win - but then why have B Hughes up, yes he won on it LTO on the heavy, but there are surely better prospects - the trainers other entrant Nefyn point only one win under the saddle, will get course and distance but not for me - Heria baby of the bunch, trainer going well 7lb claimer up who has no record on the horse ,record shows only a Maiden win at Roscommon 2019 -
Sue Smith brings back Ryan Mania the French bred Flamboyount for another A1 trip, will get the going and course should be Ok
Set in Stone is the other one of interest (from speed angle) and Menzies is in form - a messy race but sticking with what I trust -
two for me
Flamboyant Joyaux & a system experiment around speed Set in Stone
I'm tormented by having to plow through the formbook with some of these races but you have to take part as best you can SO! ...
NEFYN POINT looks a worthy fav to me and clearly has the beating of a few of these on previous meetings, will act on the ground and the 10lb claim might also help, back down to 102 and should be there abouts.
Wanting to find something in the form yhat isn't so obvious leads me in the direction of FLAMBOYANT JOYAUX who at 6yr old is capable of improvement and fairly lightly raced, his 2nd behind LE LIGERIEN looks ok in this sort of class but not so clever in 2 subsequent hdc hurdle runs he went novice chasing where he performed to a similar standard, his 4th at sedgefield looked a little one paced again showed him capable at this level.
Conclusion ....The easy choice is Nefyn Point but counting on the idea that FLAMBOYANT JOYAUX might find something more and win.
good luck!!!
NEFYN POINT looks a worthy fav to me and clearly has the beating of a few of these on previous meetings, will act on the ground and the 10lb claim might also help, back down to 102 and should be there abouts.
Wanting to find something in the form yhat isn't so obvious leads me in the direction of FLAMBOYANT JOYAUX who at 6yr old is capable of improvement and fairly lightly raced, his 2nd behind LE LIGERIEN looks ok in this sort of class but not so clever in 2 subsequent hdc hurdle runs he went novice chasing where he performed to a similar standard, his 4th at sedgefield looked a little one paced again showed him capable at this level.
Conclusion ....The easy choice is Nefyn Point but counting on the idea that FLAMBOYANT JOYAUX might find something more and win.
good luck!!!