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Today's bets

primrose4

Yearling
Back from the lockdown. The American racing proved similar to the
British racing. An excellent start ( 4 out of 5) followed by a succession of losers.

I made a note earlier that Irish Group and Listed races tend to be won by three
characteristics :-

Top trainer

Top speed

Few runs

Bearing these characteristics in mind, I have backed these two horses
at Leopardstown :-

3.00 Trossachs.

4.10 Helique (nap)

At Doncaster in the 3.40 Hunanabed is capable of running a far better race
than his odds of 6/1 of 7 seem to represent.









)
 

primrose4

Yearling
Saved by Helique yesterday. The nap went in.
I am showing a net loss at the moment upon the
British racing so perhaps these two bets may be
taken with a pinch of salt.
Both at Pontefract :-

1.20 Corvair (nap)

All commentators upon this race are focussing upon
Meraas. Mightily impressive in its last race it should
have these at its mercy. But as Lee said if the trainer
has such a high opinion of the horse why enter in a
race for such average pickings?
There has been significant market support for Romero.
Off putting is the 117 days without a run. It is clear that
horses with a previous run have shown that to be a
significant advantage in these early days of the flat season.

Corvair looks a solid option so I have backed this horse to win.

2.50 Eva Maria (e.w.)

The best thing about Eva Maria is that the horse has shown its
best form on tracks in the North of England.
Again there is a short priced favourite here in Antonia De Vega.
By contrast the trainer of the hot favourite has had a miserable
time of things on courses north of the Trent in the first few days
of the season. This must cast some doubt upon Antonio's
effectiveness at Pontefract.
 
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primrose4

Yearling
I have backed one or two today:-

1.40 at Salisbury
Anna Nerun @ 4/1

The hot favourite looks a good thing in this race. But with
a race of just four runners this could become tactical. Anna
Nerun has shown enough to show that she is capable of
winning in the grade.

3.10 at the Curragh
Aloha Star @ 12/1 (e.w.)

It seldom pays to back horses that start at less than forecast odds.
Last night Aloha Star was available at 16/1 with both Hills and Freds.
On finding that the morning price was now 12/1 I was going to leave
this race until I checked upon Betfair and found that there was still
some 15/1 available.
The race itself looks an absolute cracker with some of Ireland's top
sprinting juveniles in contention. I doubt whether you can have any
great confidence with any individual in this race because the talent
is so hot, but at a double digit price Aloha Star seems to represent
some value.

3.25 at Salisbury
Duke of Hazard @ 100/30

The odds that I have requested have not been taken so far upon Betfair.
A horse with a good chance of success.

4.30 at Salisbury
Jack D 'Or @ 5/1(e.w) of 8

This should be an each-way bet to nothing. A good sort who is more than
capable of winning at this level.
 

Thomas

Filly
Good write up primrose, I am currently climbing a mountain/hill, and having a coffee break I looked last night, and Duke of Hazard looked very good to me, beaten in it's last three races by three good things imo.

So hopefully when I descend from the mountain, some of the bookmakers redistribution of wealth will be in my favour.
 

Thomas

Filly
I should have stayed up on the mountain :violence-rocket::violence-rocket::violence-rocket:. I tried to watch the race on Betfair LV, but with the glare of the sun I couldn't see the race, but had the audio.

Duke of Hazard was called as the runner up and in the post race analysis, one of the pundits declared how consistent he was and how unlucky also, so you can imagine my surprise this morning when I went through the results, to find out that he came last!!! :text-blondmoment:
 

primrose4

Yearling
I have looked at the 2.30 at Newbury today. With the original selection of
Manakayan now being declared a non-runner, it has opened up this race
quite significantly.
Both King's Caper and Dreamweaver have good chances, but Calling the Wind
has been found a good opportunity here. The horse was clearly progressive before
it's last run where it was caught out by a much higher standard of opposition than
today's. Calling the Wind will appreciate the better going here than it did in its last
race where it seemed all at sea in the prevailing soft conditions.

Dreamweaver is more used to competing for £5k prizes than today's class whilst
King's Caper appears to be very well handicapped compared with its official rating
but in recent races it hasn't found anything at the finish. Humanitarian is the class act
in the race but a first race for 455 days is very off-putting in terms of it taking the prize.
 

Fazman

Yearling
I have looked at the 2.30 at Newbury today. With the original selection of
Manakayan now being declared a non-runner, it has opened up this race
quite significantly.
Both King's Caper and Dreamweaver have good chances, but Calling the Wind
has been found a good opportunity here. The horse was clearly progressive before
it's last run where it was caught out by a much higher standard of opposition than
today's. Calling the Wind will appreciate the better going here than it did in its last
race where it seemed all at sea in the prevailing soft conditions.

Dreamweaver is more used to competing for £5k prizes than today's class whilst
King's Caper appears to be very well handicapped compared with its official rating
but in recent races it hasn't found anything at the finish. Humanitarian is the class act
in the race but a first race for 455 days is very off-putting in terms of it taking the prize.
hi there
On your comment on Humanitarian not running for 455 days being off-putting, this would normally be the case for most horses unless they have a good record when running fresh, clearly Humanitarian does So would of been the best time to back it .
i have backed many a winner when looking at their first time out record after a break.
 

Chesham

Sire
I have looked at the 2.30 at Newbury today. With the original selection of
Manakayan now being declared a non-runner, it has opened up this race
quite significantly.
Both King's Caper and Dreamweaver have good chances, but Calling the Wind
has been found a good opportunity here. The horse was clearly progressive before
it's last run where it was caught out by a much higher standard of opposition than
today's. Calling the Wind will appreciate the better going here than it did in its last
race where it seemed all at sea in the prevailing soft conditions.

Dreamweaver is more used to competing for £5k prizes than today's class whilst
King's Caper appears to be very well handicapped compared with its official rating
but in recent races it hasn't found anything at the finish. Humanitarian is the class act
in the race but a first race for 455 days is very off-putting in terms of it taking the prize.
Well done with posting a pre race analysis and well done with pointing out the Class Horse in the race. Always a difficult decision with a horse who has been off the track that long. obviously has had physical problems and no way of know what horse will turn up when H runs. Was gelded in 2019 and not run as a gelding before.


Enjoyed reading you Pre Race Analysis , and that’s what counts . :clap:
Hopefully will see you greened up soon. The Data on the Class Sheets should be useful for you.
 
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primrose4

Yearling
A quick write up here. I have backed two horses today at Uttoxeter.
Rather annoyingly the 3.16 selection has come in quite significantly from
its overnight price. Normally this is not a good sign.

3.16 at Uttoxeter

It would not surprise me if away from Longchamp that Yes No Maybe So is the
best supported horse of the day. Last night both Ladbrokes and Hills were
showing 5/1 about this horse. I was able to take some 7/2 this morning. An
hour or so a go the horse had come in all the way to 5/2. Surprisingly this
5/2 was exactly the price that I predicted as being the opening price without
having any access to the early prices.

3,46 at Uttoxeter

Court Royale at 13/2 looks an enormous price to me. Rather foolishly I predicted
3/1 last night. The year older Destined to Shine has good form and is a threat to all.

I am not going to write up anything specific about the chances of these horses but
I like to believe that they were selected using the same principals that Pat Sharp
used when making his selections. Something along the lines of "down in class, up
a shade in weights."
 

primrose4

Yearling
Sorry about the error concerning Pat Powers. Yes, I was referring to the
former Tottenham Hotspur player.

After the very bad run of selections that I have had I have switched to the
dark side over the last couple of days and had a lot of success in laying a rag
or two. Anyhow there is a horse today that I could not resist in backing. In the
3.10 at Nottingham Snow Ocean seems to tick all the correct boxes. As an
improving sort the horse looks more than capable of handling the step up in
class.

If I am incorrect then the two under-priced lays will hopefully make up for the
shortfall.
 

Chesham

Sire
Hi P primrose4

Plenty of positives for your selection

Top on TheBluesBrother TheBluesBrother figs, Top on Chesham Class Rating.
3Lb well in on latest BHA Performance Figure

Small sample from the Stats but the Trainer has pulled off these type before

8250AD52-26C9-4DEC-B7DD-7B0A497A56E8.jpeg

Watching this race but. hope that you collect
 
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pawras

Colt
Sorry about the error concerning Pat Powers. Yes, I was referring to the
former Tottenham Hotspur player.

After the very bad run of selections that I have had I have switched to the
dark side over the last couple of days and had a lot of success in laying a rag
or two. Anyhow there is a horse today that I could not resist in backing. In the
3.10 at Nottingham Snow Ocean seems to tick all the correct boxes. As an
improving sort the horse looks more than capable of handling the step up in
class.

If I am incorrect then the two under-priced lays will hopefully make up for the
shortfall.

I quite like that one as well as I have it as my top rated, gonna have a wee bet on that and my 2nd top.

1602078246429.png
 

pawras

Colt
I like the 1555 Ludlow, I took evens on my top rated but cos of bigger prices it might be worth while doing some saver bets on the next couple.
Interestingly Crystal Gazing has dropped from 22s on the exchange early on to about 12/1 at the moment. Where as Zarafshan has done the opposite and drifted quite a bit.

1602080827583.png
 

primrose4

Yearling
Today I have found a couple of horses that are both at long odds but seem to
have fair chances. There won't be much of a write-up here since both horses
have been found via a method of selection. As is always the case back-fitting
would show a very healthy profit with this method, but once the money is
down the outcome can often be so different to what is anticipated.

3.00 at Musselboro

Gorgeous Gobolyen at 9/1 looks a big price. The outside draw at this track is often
favoured so the horse is unlikely to have any excuses.

3.23 at Yarmouth

Spanish Main at 12/1 e.w. seems to represent some real value. The horse is a consistent
sort. Rising in class but with a lower weight, it should be interesting to see what happens.
 

Fazman

Yearling
One of the systems i use i have broke down to 3 different sub-models
One of them since racing resumed after lockdown has only selected 34 qualifying bets , 20 have won 12 placed and 2 out of the frame for 64 points profit ( placing 1 point on win 1 point on place)
A selection today is Black friday in 3.00 was 7/2 last night
Will be placing 1 pts 1 pt place on bf exchange
 
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