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Today's bets

primrose4

Yearling
Not a good day yesterday.
Today it is difficult to find any race upon the NH to get your teeth into.
The 1.15 at Wetherby appears to be the only race worth scrutinising.
Two of the fancied runners seem to have big holes in their form to overcome.

Carrolls Milan. The going might simply not be soft enough. Any drops of rain
between now and the off time will enhance this mare's chance of winning.

Little Millie. There are concerns about this mare's capacity to stay this distance.
To win Little Millie is likely to need a false pace.

This leaves two with chances. These being Drewmain Legend and Midnight Glory.
I have a lot of respect for the number of tips shown upon the Racing Post and
with 5 tips to just 1 tip, the race should be done and dusted for Midnight Glory.
However, the two good recent performances that Midnight Glory have put in
have been upon right handed tracks. I also believe that the form of the Hobbs
yard could be better and the horse is not going to be ridden by Johnson either.

At a bigger price the unexposed Drewmain Legend could be the way to go.

I did end up in the black on that race since posting I did my own rating method and ended up with:-

125 Midnight Glory

121 Carroll's Milan

117 Drewman Legend

115 Little Mille

The biggest bet was clearly on Drewman Legend though.
 
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primrose4

Yearling
I have not known a Saturday for a long time in which
many fields are too big or too small to have an interest.

The race that caught my eye is the 2.05 at Wincanton.

With Barton Knoll looking well out of it and Molineaux
not looking likely to be a contender, the race boils down
to three :-

Enola Gay

Worst of the three on Class. Best of the three on distance beaten.

Kupatane

Best on RPR rating and tips which is always a good sign.
Good on class. Worst on distance beaten.

Caltex

Most likely improver of the three. Consistent on both race class
and distance beaten. Slightly worse than the other two on
RPR rating and tips.

Summarising the race, I just get the impression that Kupatane may
have little improvement in it whilst Caltex is the most likely improver.
The consistent Enola Gay has only been beaten a total of 4 lengths
in its last two races so for this reason I would nominate Enola Gay
as the most likely winner.
 

primrose4

Yearling
The 7.45 at Wolverhampton contains a horse called Wirral Girl (c. 5/1 )
who is miles ahead on the statistics that I use.
Only Zafaranh has got anything like the number of tips that
Wirral Girl has (6 vs 5 in favour of WG). In terms of distance beaten in the last two
relevant races only Curious Fox (second best) and Zafaranh (third best)
can be considered in the same ball park as Wirral Girl.
Zafaranh, although a potential improver, has not competed in the same standard
of race as Wirral Girl based upon prize money. Also as a hold up horse Zafaranh
has got a poor draw in stall 1 and may have to come around the field to win.
If this had been a 6 furlong race then Wirral Girl would have been a shoo-in.
The extra furlong may just test her stamina.

Wirral Girl looks a sound bet. Curious Fox could be one for place money.

At short odds the 1.35 at Musselburgh should be taken by Henry's Joy (c 7/4).
By the same reasoning the 3.50 at Chepstow should fall to William B. The yard
could be in better form though.
 
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Chesham

Sire
Well done with Henry’s Joy @primrose4 . I was watching the BF in Running Odds and saw 55.00 pop up towards the end of the race, intersting to see if anyone got on at those odds.
 

pete

Mare
I liked Curious fox in this based on 2nd last run.opened @ 4's in places, now out to 16's .. 20's on exchanges.
That price is double the odds I was expecting it to be. Its a great e/w bet at a silly price.

cf.png
 

primrose4

Yearling
You could well be right Chesham.
Those are pretty damning statistics for a horse having
its first run for this particular trainer.
 

primrose4

Yearling
It has been a difficult week in finding anything to back
with several low grade race meetings. But being a Saturday
there are plenty of decent races at the likes of Kempton,
Warwick and Wetherby.

Through using the normal method of selection I have backed
horses at all three courses. The selections might appear to have
adopted a bit of a scattergun approach, but there is method in
the selection :-

1.40 Wetherby Val Mome

2.25 Warwick Rockport (nap)

2.50 Wetherby Jetset (n.b.)

3.35 Warwick First Assignment

3.45 Kempton Ediemaurice

I do not like to do too much research into an individual race once a
definite selection is made since looking in too deeply can alter the
selection process. However, I cannot understand why the market seems
so against the chance of Rockport. Two of the more fancied contenders in this
race have underwhelming statistics. Tidal Float has not run against anything
like the class of opponent that Rockport has, whilst Stoney Mountain had to
be dropped all the way into a £4k race to finally collect.

Many of the horses in the 3.35 at Warwick will be satisfied that Blaklion has
compressed the weights. First Assignment is one of the runners that could
take advantage of this. The first bet that I placed last night was upon Ediemaurice
who looked real value to me in excess of 3/1.

Best of fortune.
 

primrose4

Yearling
I have backed two horses today. Both run at Chepstow.

2.45 Steely Addition

Since last night this one has more than halved in price.
10 tips in the Racing Post against the next best of just 3 tips.

3.20 Smolesmean Alain

Surprisingly Top Speed statistics can play more of a part in National
Hunt racing than most bettors will give them credit. On both the RP
Topspeed and upon a private service the above named horse comes
out clear best in the race.
 

Chesham

Sire
Hi @primrose4

SA ranmhia best @davejb Speed Fig LTO and she is back down to her last Winning BHA Rating. Won a Mares Only Rce earlymin her her career around Chepstow.

She is also competitive in this Class Ceiling

5F44E4BD-CA96-4E70-A8F2-7926152BF5A3.jpeg
 

primrose4

Yearling
There are two races today that have caught my attention:-

2.45 at Ludlow

When reviewing this race I believed that Pineapple looked a very sound proposition.
Pineapple has the best ability rating in front of the dangerous It's a Key and Bonza.
It has also been running in the best races, again just in front of It's a Key.
The race should rest between these two.
Last night 5/1 was freely available about Pineapple and now the odds have come into
7/2.

4.00 at Kempton

Roman Spinner is a very consistent type that seems to maintain its form.
Enthaar may be considered a deserved favourite but the way that I play
these AW races seems to indicate that Roman Spinner has got an edge.

There is conflict in the 3.15 at Ludlow in the sense that Deauville has the best ability
rating at 29 versus 23 for Tommy Silver, but on race value Tommy Silver is clear at
61 versus 49. No bet.
 

primrose4

Yearling
This equine flu has clearly hampered British racing.
I assume that if it will have an effect upon horses practising
upon the gallops. If that is the case then providing that Cheltenham
goes ahead then the Irish horses might have a significant fitness
advantage.

I have enjoyed the Irish NH at Thurles over the past couple of days.
I might have a good bet lined up at Naas tomorrow. Today it is an AW
meeting at Dundalk. Both horses that I have supported appear to be
quite obvious selections. Bear in mind that I am no expert upon this AW racing :-

6.30 Dundalk Goigne Beira @ 7/2

7.30 Dundalk Rasheen @ 7/4
 
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primrose4

Yearling
With so much racing on offer today it is a day for the race specialist to show
their true colours. By race specialist I am referring to the type of person that specialises
in 2 mile hurdles or has an excellent strike rate at the likes of Catterick.

The two meeting that I have examined so far are at Fairyhouse and Catterick.
Yesterday's winner at Fairyhouse was Clementina. Unusually for myself this was in a
chase and not in my favoured hurdle race. I doubt whether I have turned the corner
in being poor at tipping at chase races, but only time will tell.

The horses that I have backed so far do not need much explanation since they are
short in the market for good reason.

3.15 at Fairyhouse
Se no Loach

I was glad last night that I was able to take a shade over 2/1 for this good sort. The
current odds are a shade better than 6/4.


2.45 at Catterick
Eureu du Boulay

Another chase. If the horse lives up to hype then running at Catterick will
not last for long and this horse should be appearing at more prestigious tracks.

3.20 at Catterick
Nemean Lion

At last a hurdle race. I backed this horse last time it ran. I do not wish to place a
curse upon the horse but Nemean Lion should be confidently placed in accumulator
bets for people doing trebles etc.
 

primrose4

Yearling
I'm not sure if this posting will get through to continue upon the forum.

In recent days I have gone back and re-read a lot of the VDW postings
upon different forums. One of the best and most informative is that by
Pat Powers in which he spelled out how he used VDW reasoning in handicaps.
Although I might have emaciated somewhat Pat's rules in finding the contenders,
and from there the likely winner, it is fair to state that Pat's reasoning can be
summed up in four simple to understand steps.

One person who never receives any criticism over his VDW methodology is Lee.
Lee seemed to have two methods of selection. The first was in making lists of
individual horses and then waiting to see what the trainer does with the horse.
The other method that Lee used was the key horse method. This involves where
a horse has put up a good performance against a reliable sort and is now
entered in a race that looks eminently winnable.
I do appreciate that there is nothing in my understanding of Lee's operation
that is not already known by the majority of VDWers upon this forum.

Using this key horse theory did not work for me yesterday upon the NH (apart
from Katpoli at Wetherby) but there was a good winner on the AW at Chelmsford
where Rangoli Island won at a good price. For this race the horse which showed
that the selection was in form was Dargel.

At Southwell's AW meeting there are horse running today that fit the profile of Katpoli

1.45 Silverturning gold (the key horse is Breakthesilence)

2.20 Rasaay (key horse is Angel Lane who just happens to
be running in the same race)

3.25 Global Hope (holds the key horse Global Melody on
course form)

On the NH at Kelso I am keen on the chances of Mah Mate Bob
in the 12.50. I cannot find a key horse to substantiate this horse's
ability though.
 

primrose4

Yearling
I'm not sure if this posting will get through to continue upon the forum.

In recent days I have gone back and re-read a lot of the VDW postings
upon different forums. One of the best and most informative is that by
Pat Powers in which he spelled out how he used VDW reasoning in handicaps.
Although I might have emaciated somewhat Pat's rules in finding the contenders,
and from there the likely winner, it is fair to state that Pat's reasoning can be
summed up in four simple to understand steps.

One person who never receives any criticism over his VDW methodology is Lee.
Lee seemed to have two methods of selection. The first was in making lists of
individual horses and then waiting to see what the trainer does with the horse.
The other method that Lee used was the key horse method. This involves where
a horse has put up a good performance against a reliable sort and is now
entered in a race that looks eminently winnable.
I do appreciate that there is nothing in my understanding of Lee's operation
that is not already known by the majority of VDWers upon this forum.

Using this key horse theory did not work for me yesterday upon the NH (apart
from Katpoli at Wetherby) but there was a good winner on the AW at Chelmsford
where Rangoli Island won at a good price. For this race the horse which showed
that the selection was in form was Dargel.

At Southwell's AW meeting there are horse running today that fit the profile of Katpoli

1.45 Silverturning gold (the key horse is Breakthesilence)

2.20 Rasaay (key horse is Angel Lane who just happens to
be running in the same race)

3.25 Global Hope (holds the key horse Global Melody on
course form)

On the NH at Kelso I am keen on the chances of Mah Mate Bob
in the 12.50. I cannot find a key horse to substantiate this horse's
ability though.

Postscript
Clearly a mixed day which started well but did not end well.
I ended up with a small profit on the day through also backing
Elvis Mail at Kelso. Good recent form plus 7 tips proved a sound
basis for selection.
I'm not sure if this posting will get through to continue upon the forum.

In recent days I have gone back and re-read a lot of the VDW postings
upon different forums. One of the best and most informative is that by
Pat Powers in which he spelled out how he used VDW reasoning in handicaps.
Although I might have emaciated somewhat Pat's rules in finding the contenders,
and from there the likely winner, it is fair to state that Pat's reasoning can be
summed up in four simple to understand steps.

One person who never receives any criticism over his VDW methodology is Lee.
Lee seemed to have two methods of selection. The first was in making lists of
individual horses and then waiting to see what the trainer does with the horse.
The other method that Lee used was the key horse method. This involves where
a horse has put up a good performance against a reliable sort and is now
entered in a race that looks eminently winnable.
I do appreciate that there is nothing in my understanding of Lee's operation
that is not already known by the majority of VDWers upon this forum.

Using this key horse theory did not work for me yesterday upon the NH (apart
from Katpoli at Wetherby) but there was a good winner on the AW at Chelmsford
where Rangoli Island won at a good price. For this race the horse which showed
that the selection was in form was Dargel.

At Southwell's AW meeting there are horse running today that fit the profile of Katpoli

1.45 Silverturning gold (the key horse is Breakthesilence)

2.20 Rasaay (key horse is Angel Lane who just happens to
be running in the same race)

3.25 Global Hope (holds the key horse Global Melody on
course form)

On the NH at Kelso I am keen on the chances of Mah Mate Bob
in the 12.50. I cannot find a key horse to substantiate this horse's
ability though.
 

primrose4

Yearling
I seem to be struggling a little bit at the moment in finding the correct location
for postings. Yesterday turned out to be something of a nothing day. I was rescued
by Elvis Mail.

Today also seems to be a somewhat ordinary day for racing.

2.30 at Southwell
This looks surprisingly good for a 5.2k race. Course specialist Suitcase 'n' Taxi
may be the answer at 9/4.

2.40 at Lingfield
This looks a somewhat open race with three in with a chance and one other possible.
Mole Trip is consistent and receives 4 tips. At the odds available he looks a
sound bet.
Of the other horses, Heavenly Promise is a useful chaser. His hurdling abilities
were less than average. Will his improved chase form help him now returning
to hurdling? For the limited amount that it has achieved Fizzlestix looks a
somewhat underwhelming favourite. This is his second race after a long lay-off.
The first run back was poor. I can only assume that Fizzlestix has been working
well at home to make him the favourite.
 

primrose4

Yearling
Just a quick posting from me today. After a pause in interest after a losing
stretch, I have looked back on my notes. Over the past four days I have
been paper trading. I am sure that just about everybody else will find this game
easy when there is no actual money down. From seven selections there were five
winners.

Using exactly the same methodology as previously used, there are two horses
that have been backed today that have the same characteristics as the earlier
seven :-

1.30 at Sedgefield Manofthemoment at 9/4

3.30 at Sedgefield Benarty Hill at 13/2 (each-way taken).
 
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