Today's bets

[primrose4]

With so much racing on offer today it is a day for the race specialist to show
their true colours. By race specialist I am referring to the type of person that specialises
in 2 mile hurdles or has an excellent strike rate at the likes of Catterick.

The two meeting that I have examined so far are at Fairyhouse and Catterick.
Yesterday's winner at Fairyhouse was Clementina. Unusually for myself this was in a
chase and not in my favoured hurdle race. I doubt whether I have turned the corner
in being poor at tipping at chase races, but only time will tell.

The horses that I have backed so far do not need much explanation since they are
short in the market for good reason.

3.15 at Fairyhouse

Se no Loach​

I was glad last night that I was able to take a shade over 2/1 for this good sort. The
current odds are a shade better than 6/4.​

2.45 at Catterick
Eureu du Boulay

Another chase. If the horse lives up to hype then running at Catterick will
not last for long and this horse should be appearing at more prestigious tracks.

3.20 at Catterick
Nemean Lion

At last a hurdle race. I backed this horse last time it ran. I do not wish to place a
curse upon the horse but Nemean Lion should be confidently placed in accumulator
bets for people doing trebles etc.

 

[Chesham]

Eurex Du Boulay for me too. Trainer has only sent out 3 penalty carriers and is 2/3. EDB was one of those LTO.

 

[mick]

A busy day for NH punters for sure.I wonder if or when 48hr decs will be implemented for Jump racing this would help.

 

[mlmrob]

A busy day for NH punters for sure.I wonder if or when 48hr decs will be implemented for Jump racing this would help.

It probably would @mick I have only studied the two Northern meetings today. I left Cheltenham well alone. But I am doing that more and more just studying Northern races.

Alnwick is on this Sunday and the decs will be out today or possibly tomorrow and you don't get to know whos running until 45 minutes before the first race. That would catch a few out.

 

[dave58]

With you on Nemean Lion @primrose4, but just a single bet for me

 

[mick]

@mlmrob i have lost track with the NH but are any advocating 48hr decs.?

 

[mlmrob]

i have lost track with the NH but are any advocating 48hr decs.?

Only a few @mick something about change and racehorse trainers doesn't gel.

 

[mick]

Only a few @mick something about change and racehorse trainers doesn't gel.

Assuming that some who Def intend to run do bother to seriously checkout the opposition i would have thought that knowing 48hrs in advance exactly who that opposition is would prove advantageous.? Tbh i cannot recall if flat trainers where reluctant, but i certainly feel its a big positive for us punters.

 

[mlmrob]

I think both codes should be the same and why theyre not I have no idea. But today for some guys it must have been a nightmare.

The ironic thing is Jamie Snowden has a runner at Musselburgh today and it would have been on the road before it was declared to run.

 

[markfinn]

I remember John Frankcome interview and he said the Winter stable had no forward planning as such .....if the horse looked up to it he would just enter them overnight. The Pipe regime must have scared them all to death.

 

[mick]

The Pipe regime must have scared them all to death.

I recall after years of trying his wife finally gets him to go on holiday, and he is pictured on a sun lounger by the pool in Spain .......reading the form book.Perhaps it was this which scared some of them.?

 

[Eddie123]

Wholesltone 11/8 won this last year so that will do for me.

 

[primrose4]

One out of three yesterday is nothing to crow about and
at short odds too.

The horses that I have backed today have gone their
separate ways in the betting market from the odds that
appeared attractive last night.

2.40 at Ayr

Aye Right (nap)

100/30 was available last night on Betfair. Now the odds are coming
nearer and nearer to 2/1.
The horse looks to be dropping in class to collect. Aye Right will not be
inconvenienced by the soft ground whilst there are question marks against
the ground for some of the other principals. Prior to the Cheltenham run
Aye Right had been running upon right handed tracks but the Cheltenham
run showed that the horse is capable of going left handed.

3.00 at Hereford

Western Wave

I thought that 4/1 was attractive odds last night about this good sort. The odds
have since drifted right out to 5/1 (it went to over 6's at one point upon Betfair).
Western Wave gets the top Spotform in the Daily Mail and is also the selection
of Robin Goodfellow.
Western Wave likes running upon right-handed tracks.

There is a horse in this race called Cougar Kid. The horse has already won at Hereford
twice and has a succession of decent placed efforts in its recent form figures.
At double digit odds the horse looks ideal betting material for each-way bettors.

 

[Chesham]

Hope that you collect,@primrose4

Just for Reference these are the class ratings.The Adjusted Column is the Rating \

 

[Thomas]

I backed Wholestone yesterday and was very disappointed to see him beat. After a post race review apart from underestimating the winner obviously, I can't see how wholestone was beat.

Anyone else look at that race, did I miss something obvious as I thought he was a good bet.

 

[Chesham]

well done with Aye Right @primrose4 and hard luck with Western Way, just lost out on the run in

 

[Chesham]

I backed Wholestone yesterday and was very disappointed to see him beat. After a post race review apart from underestimating the winner obviously, I can't see how wholestone was beat.

Anyone else look at that race, did I miss something obvious as I thought he was a good bet.

My Only thought is that Wholeston ran below form LTO as he had beaten the winner of the LTO race , in his 2md LTO Race

 

[primrose4]

If some layer would have taken my two to be placed bet upon
Western Way yesterday it would have been a near perfect day.
The layers on the two to be placed market are very astute and
give nothing away. It is fair to say that there is little value in this
market. The bets that I try to place in this market are very seldom
taken.

I tried again last night on the two to be placed market but to no
avail. The horse that I have backed today is in the 1.45 at Ludlow
and is Silver Kayf. This horse is particularly good on a right handed
track. Although it is clearly the class horse in the race the horse
comes with two provisos that the more conservative are unlikely
to entertain :-

1. There is no real evidence to suggest that the horse is a good
weight carrier. I would be much happier backing this horse with a
weight of c. 11 4.

2. Silver Kayf is returning to hurdling after an unsuccessful spell
of going chasing. There is always a chance that chasing might
have blunted the horse's natural speed.

Silver Kayf might win this race on the grounds that the opposition are not
up to much. The main opposition to Silver Kayf may very well come from
the two at the bottom of the handicap. Other than these two the rest of the
field look as if they could be in the veteran stage of racing.

 

[nicksar]

@primrose4 if you use API software you would find it easier to get matched in the 2 to place market,I bet in that market sometimes and find I get matched as long as I feed my stake in a bit at a time.

 

[Thomas]

Thanks for the reply Chesham I guess your right, I also didn't like to see the in running drift on wholestone shortly after the tapes went up.