• Hi Guest, The forum will be moving hosts on 26 July and as such will be closed from Midday until the move has completed.
    As we will be with new hosts it may take a while before DNS get updated so it could take while before you can get back on the forum.
    I think it will take at least 4 hours but could easily be 48!
    Ark Royal
  • There seems to be a problem with some alerts not being emailed to members. I have told the hosts and they are investigating.
  • Hi Guest Just in case you were not aware I wanted to highlight that you can now get a 20% discount on Inform Racing.
    Simply enter the coupon code ukbettingform when subscribing here.
    We have a lot of members who are existing users of Inform Racing so help is always available if needed.
    Best Wishes
    AR
  • Sorry for the ongoing issues that you may have been experiencing whilst using the forum lately

    It really is frustrating when the forum slows down or Server Error 500 pops up.

    Apparently the hosts acknowledge there is a problem.
    Thank you for using our services and sorry for the experienced delay!
    Unfortunately, these errors are due to a higher server load. Our senior department knows about the issue and they are working towards a permanent resolution of the issue, however, I'd advise you to consider using our new cPanel cloud solutions: https://www.tsohost.com/web-hosting


    I will have to investigate what the differences are with what We have know compared to the alternative service they want us to migrate to.
    Keep safe.
    AR

Today's bets

primrose4

Yearling
I have backed horses in two races on the flat today that are
in consecutive races to each other.

4.25 at Pontefract

Julie Johnson @ 13/2

4.30 at Ascot

Rose Tip @ 7/1

Both of these horses were found by combining two rating
methods, both effectively from the same source.

Using the same methodology the 6.50 at Brighton should
fall the way of Right Moment. This horse has not been taken
though since the forecast price was 5/1. Most of the 3/1 originally
available has been taken up leaving the horse at a very short
9/4 favourite.
 

primrose4

Yearling
Although Eagle Court did not oblige yesterday, Heights of Abraham did win
so it was another profitable day.

Today I have found another couple of likely sorts.

2.10 at Carlisle

Never in Paris

The ratings are really tight here. You could name any three here and
still not be sure that you have located the winner. But when weight
considerations come into play it shows a different picture. Of the
principals only Never in Paris and the favourite Praexology can be
said to be favourably weighted. Of these two Never in Paris is the
selection since Praexology is more of a 7 furlong specialist, although
with juice getting into the ground this may well work into the favour
of Praexology.

4.15 at Redcar

Savalas (nap)

On the ratings two horses stand out here. These being Eeh Bah Gum
and Savalas. When combining Ratings with Topspeed then Savalas
becomes a clear selection.

The likely favourite Militia has shown good consistency but has not
been running against the same standard of horses as the two shown
above. Savalas looks a real decent bet at 7/1.
 

primrose4

Yearling
The forecast rainfall at Sandown may very well effect the going,
making the climb up that steep hill seem all the more difficult
for today's horses.

On ratings two horses standout:-

5.55 Local Law

It is a surprise to me how little attention this horse has received
from various forum contributors. The layers have cottoned onto
the horse 's good chances though bringing the horse into 9/2
from an initial 13/2.
On ratings the favourite Zinc White has a similar chance to
Going Gone. Both of these two are ten points behind Local Law.

7.55 Urban Violet

Another surprise was just how far in front on the ratings that this
7/1 chance was in front of two other principals in Reverential and
Top Anticipation. Urban Violet is more than 20 points in front
of these two good sorts so should represent a decent bet.

The only negative to the two horses above is that it is unclear what
effect that the rain will have upon their chances.
 
Last edited:

primrose4

Yearling
It could not have been a more mixed day yesterday with Urban Violet
winning well whilst Local Law did not handle Sandown's camber at all
finishing in stone cold last place.

The rain that has seeped into the Goodwood track will have a marked
effect upon today's runners. The going has changed from good, good-soft
in places to downright soft going. There could be some withdrawals as
trainers check the going in terms of the chances of their own horses.

Again I have been at the mercy of the elements in the sense that I placed
my bets last night.

2.15 Lady Hayes (nap)

Ratings should hold up here since this is a Class race.
I have Lady Hayes at 279. Ready to Venture is at 264 whilst Nash Nasha is at 244.

2.50 Gordonstoun

This is a much closer race than the one above so caution should be exercised :-

163 Gordonstoun
159 Year of Dragon
152 Luckiness
149 Onagrip
140 Marsabit

Year of Dragon has not competed against much opposition so its high rating is questionable.
The biggest surprise in the ratings was just how low Marsabit was rated. Keep an eye on this one.

3.25 Yibu

Yibu is well clear on the ratings here so last night's 11/2 was something of a gift.

I have ignored the meetings at both Bath and Haydock because other than the Cecil Frail
at Haydock both meetings suffer from low quality races.
 

Coseleymon

Yearling
It could not have been a more mixed day yesterday with Urban Violet
winning well whilst Local Law did not handle Sandown's camber at all
finishing in stone cold last place.

The rain that has seeped into the Goodwood track will have a marked
effect upon today's runners. The going has changed from good, good-soft
in places to downright soft going. There could be some withdrawals as
trainers check the going in terms of the chances of their own horses.

Again I have been at the mercy of the elements in the sense that I placed
my bets last night.

2.15 Lady Hayes (nap)

Ratings should hold up here since this is a Class race.
I have Lady Hayes at 279. Ready to Venture is at 264 whilst Nash Nasha is at 244.

2.50 Gordonstoun

This is a much closer race than the one above so caution should be exercised :-

163 Gordonstoun
159 Year of Dragon
152 Luckiness
149 Onagrip
140 Marsabit

Year of Dragon has not competed against much opposition so its high rating is questionable.
The biggest surprise in the ratings was just how low Marsabit was rated. Keep an eye on this one.

3.25 Yibu

Yibu is well clear on the ratings here so last night's 11/2 was something of a gift.

I have ignored the meetings at both Bath and Haydock because other than the Cecil Frail
at Haydock both meetings suffer from low quality races.
As you have Yibr clear in the 3 25 having not run on soft ground whereas Aleas has proven soft ground form would you not take this into account?
 

primrose4

Yearling
I apologise for being late with my reply. The change in the going
clearly has an effect upon the outcome of the race. However, it
should have little effect upon ratings since if you start tampering with
one element of the ratings, the ratings themselves become skewed by
this one factor, of the going.

Interestingly there was a very similar query to this on another forum.
The person replied to the query by stating that "the going is already factored
into the rating."
 

primrose4

Yearling
With one meeting being called off today's racing is restricted.
Hamilton has a modest card. I have rated the 2.40 race as follows:-

Lady Nectar 153
Blackfriday 150
True Blue Moon 146
Kraken Power 142
Illusionist 125

There are no positive ratings for weight carried. Kraken Power is the only
horse not to receive a negative figure for weight carried. Blackfriday is the
big loser for weight carried shedding 11 points. Lady Nectar only sheds
2 points so this allows her to become the top rated horse.
Illusionist owes its low ranking to distance beaten where it has not been
competitive at the business end of races.

It is very close between the front two since an alternative method of rating
based upon races in which they compete shows that Blackfriday competed
in a better class of race being a 77-85 horse against Lady Nectar who competes
in 72-78 races. I have backed both horse to win (at 11/2 and 7/1) but if push
came to shove I would support what the ratings show and tip Lady Nectar to win.

The 7.50 at Wolverhampton has probably got an anomaly within it because
the top rated horse is quoted at 20/1. Not only that but the top rated is also
well clear :-

Water of Leith 179
Stylish Performer 153
Royal Pleasure 152
Farasi Lane 138
Trimble 135

It would be foolish to ignore the ratings, so the best bet is to go each-way upon
Water of Leith.
 

primrose4

Yearling
With it being Epsom Oaks day it is always worth placing a bet upon
such an excellent race card. The Oaks itself looks reasonably open. It is a
race upon which I do not have a strong opinion. The 8/1 available about
Mostawaa in the 2.35 looks too tempting to resist. Along with Irish Admiral
the selection has been competing in the best quality races. The horse with
the best form rating, Miraad, has been competing in lower class races (in terms
of £) and may be found wanting because of this.

Over at Catterick the 3.35 seems to boil down to four contenders. Seas of Elezaar
has the equal best form rating of 159, but this was achieved in a lowly £2k claimer.
Pearl of Quatar has a rating of 154 but once again it was only achieved in a race
worth less than £4k. Music Society has raced in decent class but has a lowly
form rating of just 137. The only horse with a good form rating, of 159, and has
also been racing in a decent class (c.6k) is the 6/1 chance North Wind. Clearly
North Wind is the selection.

Postscript
I was amazed to see just how soft the ground at Epsom was riding (too much over-watering).
Mostawaa never settled and was well beaten before the final two furlongs. Unfortunately this softer
going has thrown my early ante-post bets upon the Derby into disarray because I
was banking on the ground being on the firmer side of good.
 
Last edited:

primrose4

Yearling
I have returned to one of my favourite selection methods,
" a modified version of racing predictors."

Regal Mirage in the 2.00 at York is ahead of its rivals
under this method. One of the outsiders in Home Before Dusk
is in third place. In second place some 14% behind Regal Mirage
is Starfighter.

Under the Predictor method there could be a surprise in the
result of the 2.45 at Sandown. Little Rollight at 20/1 comes out
first. A more traditional form based analysis would show Fairy
Cakes as being the best horse in this race. To be safe I have backed
them both to win.
 
Top