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Today's All Weather Racing

Dave said:
Looks like I went a week or two too early as, both Silkie Wilkie and Tiger Crusade have won this week 3/1 and 12/1. I’d be a liar if I said I had both. The only bet I had today was Far too Fizzy who I backed at 2/1 last minute.

Between looking after the grandkids and the elderly parents I just didn’t get the study time for all the races. I thought Far Too Fizzy was drawn perfect for the early speed and Rossa Ryan on board made me quite confident. Sorry I didn’t post but time passed by far too quickly.

I’m sick to the gills over Tiger Crusade as she had plenty of speed to aim at.

Cheers Dave
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Far too Fizzy taking after his dam Fizzy Feet with that performance. I well remember her!

She was a very good racemare on her day and had a lot of speed. Far too Fizzy burned them off today from the front, winning so easily.

Perhaps her last race also signalled this run today. Went off in front that day but didn't get home. I've seen others say that a change of tactics on last race can lead to a win on next start, whilst Far Too Fizzy was also a bit down in class (officially - although the last and second-last horses home looked interesting beforehand. They performed poorly as it turned out).

Rossa Ryan booking was obviously a positive as you've said too - I think yesterday was only his second day back from a break, also. Notice the colt has an entry in another handicap at Lingfield this Saturday at 5 furlongs. Judging on the performance yesterday and his pedigree, (being by Far Above also), you wouldn't think 5 furonlgs would be an issue.

Good luck with the book, Dave - a real achievement, I'd say
 
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matty1976 said:
Far too Fizzy taking after his dam Fizzy Feet with that performance. I well remember her!

She was a very good racemare on her day and had a lot of speed. Far too Fizzy burned them off today from the front, winning so easily.

Perhaps her last race also signalled this run today. Went off in front that day but didn't get home. I've seen others say that a change of tactics on last race can lead to a win on next start, whilst Far Too Fizzy was also a bit down in class (officially - although the last and second-last horses home looked interesting beforehand. They performed poorly as it turned out).

Rossa Ryan booking was obviously a positive as you've said too - I think yesterday was only his second day back from a break, also. Notice the colt has an entry in another handicap at Lingfield this Saturday at 5 furlongs. Judging on the performance yesterday and his pedigree, (being by Far Above also), you wouldn't think 5 furonlgs would be an issue.

Good luck with the book, Dave - a real achievement, I'd say
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Thanks M matty1976 I agree the performance visual looked strong for the class. The clock will tell the real truth. I’ll be checking the RaceIQ metrics and speed figures that TheBluesBrother TheBluesBrother produces. He could be out quickly based on how easily he won yesterday.
 
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Dave Dave

Closing 2f sectional: 22.25 (109.1%).

FAR TOO FIZZY, third at Wolverhampton last time, dictated the gallop, kicked for home off the bend and pulled well away to double his tally, adding to October's Chelmsford win. He was seen to good effect and will be due a hefty rise, but he could still have more to offer and may even have the speed to drop back to 5f.

FTF.PNG
 
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TheBluesBrother said:
Dave Dave

Closing 2f sectional: 22.25 (109.1%).

FAR TOO FIZZY, third at Wolverhampton last time, dictated the gallop, kicked for home off the bend and pulled well away to double his tally, adding to October's Chelmsford win. He was seen to good effect and will be due a hefty rise, but he could still have more to offer and may even have the speed to drop back to 5f.

View attachment 163609
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Good morning TheBluesBrother TheBluesBrother that is a very strong final closing 2F. The race shape panned out perfectly especially for Lingfield. He was low drawn with lots of early pace enabling him to grab the front entering the first bend which comes up quick at Lingfield. From there on he dictated the race. With Rossa Ryan onboard the stable we’re showing intent. He’s such a fantastic judge of pace in general but specifically on the AW.
 
TheBluesBrother said:
Dave Dave

Closing 2f sectional: 22.25 (109.1%).

FAR TOO FIZZY, third at Wolverhampton last time, dictated the gallop, kicked for home off the bend and pulled well away to double his tally, adding to October's Chelmsford win. He was seen to good effect and will be due a hefty rise, but he could still have more to offer and may even have the speed to drop back to 5f.

View attachment 163609
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Are we talking about the 12th jan TheBluesBrother TheBluesBrother ? if so i'm seeing final 2f of 25.59s
 
tacker said:
Are we talking about the 12th jan @
TheBluesBrother
TheBluesBrother ? if so i'm seeing final 2f of 25.59s
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Yesterday, 3.38 Lingfield AW.

Mike.
 
Rossa Ryan has a good record for owner of Far too Fizzy, (David Lowe).

4 win from 17 runners in past 12 months according to ATR website, (for a small sp profit). All time it's 16 wins from 94 and a larger profit of £22.98 at SP.
Pretty obvious angle I suppose, and it must be added that Rowan Scott who rode this horse on previous start is also profitable for the owner in last 12 months, (from a small sample size).

Rossa Ryan certainly did the job well in this race. He seems to often go to minor meetings instead of riding on the big days, (never seems to go to Dubai, for example), but obviously in big demand. Normally lots of rides, but I remember seeing him interviewed by Sky Sports near end of 2024 where he said he would be going back to Ireland to see friends and family for a few weeks after Xma in 2025 so assume he did the same this year.

He also seeems to rarely get suspended, (similar to William Buick and Tom Marquand in that repect).
 
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I have had an each way bet on Night Bear in the Southwell 16:35. I had marked this race as one to potentially follow been as the vs.par figure was -1.82s and the Time I decided was +1 above the average. Night Bear finished less than 3 lengths off the winner and was leading with a furlong to go. He finished with FSP 100% and the 3 in front of him were all above the 100 mark. This shows he probably went a bit too hard in the early part of the race and paid the price later.

If the tactics and pace are handled a bit better then I feel he’s in with a shout. He’s been slipping down the handicap for sometime now and he’s now at a weight where he can be dangerous. Tony Carroll is great at pulling off these types of wins.
 
Good luck my concern is days between races which seems to suggest it may struggle.
Hope I’m wrong .
I very often am in these lower class races.
All the wins have come with an 8-15 day break between races any other break and it’s 0 wins from 41 races.
May not be a factor as the trainer is very clever .
​
 
paul said:
Very unlucky indeed.
Thought you had it for a second .
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You and me alike. One thing you learn over the years is there is no way you can win them all.

My aim is always to find what I regard as value, simply because you can’t win them all no matter how hard you work at it.

Therefore, my aim is simple where the evidence is stacked in your favour, then take the low hanging fruits (2/1 ish) and be very aware of any negative's as they are what tend to ruin what looks a decent bet).

Because you can’t win them all. I’m always trying to get 4/1 or above. Like today’s bet I took it each way @ 5/1 BOG hope for it to drift a bit.

I felt Night Bear had done enough LTO over course and distance to show it could win this race if things dropped right. I watched the race replay a couple of times and the RaceIQ sectional and metric data gave me the confidence to place the bet. I felt Night Bear could win and if not should get placed.

My analysis of the race had narrowed it down to the top 3 in the market as the most likely to contest the race. I therefore felt the 5/1 offered me a bit of value.

Unfortunately, it didn’t win but it did finish a good second and the top 3 in the betting finished 1st, 2nd and 3rd. I have no choice but to be happy the result. No money lost and tomorrow is another day.
 
I’m interested in the gelding Yehudi at Wolves in 18:30. He went in my tracker after his run on 13th December where he lost by a neck. I backed him LTO E/W where he finished 4th turning for home I thought I was going to get 2nd but appeared to get a bit tired and was passed by some well handicapped horses. Latin won the race well. Latin came into the race as a LTO winner and went on to win NTO showing he was well handicapped. The 2nd Apache Green finished strong and won NTO and the 3rd Super Hit finished a good 2nd at Lingfield NTO. The form of that race looks strong and I’ve check the RaceIQ sectionals and metrics for the race show it was a decent race they went hard 4,5,6 furlongs and still recorded over 102% FSP. So although Yehudi looked like he was tiring he was still actually running quite strong just the others were faster in the last furlong.

He drops into a 7F race and has Billy riding him. On 5/4/25 he ran over 7F at Wolves and the RaceIQ shows that was a strong race and he finished 3rd losing by a length.

I believe the drop to 7F will suit him and he has no issues with the track and surface. The big negative is the draw as he’s stuck out in 10 and has first time blinkers. The blinkers may work wonders but they might not. The draw is my worry and certainly could have been better. The horse has decent early speed so Billy could get a decent position but it’s how much energy is expended doing it. I personally think he’s shown good strength over 1m so he will hopefully be able to gets a decent position early without too much impact on he should be in with a good chance.

Still, if the price is around 7/1 or above it’s not a bad EW

I see the following as the main dangers
Toussarok (well drawn good early pace)
Landlordtothestars (bad draw in 12 struggle use early pace to get across)
Maid In Chelsea ( good draw but not as much early speed)

I’m hoping Yehudi wins as he’s run some really good races but just bumped into some well handicapped horses. He’s got to win soon.


Cheers Dave
 
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Not financially involved in the race Dave Dave , best past trends for this race that I can come up with. Hope that you get The luck in running and collect IMG_5150.jpeg

IMG_5149.jpegIMG_5148.jpeg
 
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PHS said:
It's a very competitive looking race that Dave Dave. I also had Yehudi in my noted horses from 13th Dec. I fancied Lessay but not a the prices.
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I agree it looks quite competitive. Not much between them on their best recent form

On my ratings I have the following
Made In China 68
Yehudi 67
Lessay 67
Toussarok 67
Ottawa 66
Blue Eclipse 66
Enpassant 66
 
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This is what im work on at present it from a book called AI for handicapping.

🔍 Betting Overlay Table​


HorseBFRTGDECMarket vs RTGForecast AlignmentOverlayAction
Adelaide Bay50.089.81Massive mismatchFully alignedStrong positive🟢 Back (value)
Ottawa12.082.12UndervaluedAlignedPositive🟢 Back
Yehudi6.681.83FairAlignedNeutral+🟡 Small
Enpassant7.081.64FairAlignedNeutral⚪ No edge
Harbour Vision32.081.55Big value gapAlignedStrong positive🟢 Back (price)
Toussarok10.080.76Slight valueAlignedPositive🟢 Back
Blue Eclipse11.579.27FairAlignedNeutral⚪
Lessay6.877.18Market aheadMisalignedNegative🔴 Avoid
Renewable Dream25.055.69FairAligned weakNeutral⚪
Maid In Chelsea5.351.310OverbetMisalignedNegative🔴 Lay / Avoid
Pickersgill42.035.211WeakAligned weakNegative🔴 Avoid
 
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