• Hi Guest Just in case you were not aware I wanted to highlight that you can now get a free 7 day trial of Horseracebase here.
    We have a lot of members who are existing users of Horseracebase so help is always available if needed, as well as dedicated section of the fourm here.
    Best Wishes
    AR

Today's All Weather Racing

re Correspondance, Tony Carroll is a very capable trainer and normally can get a horse to win after picking horses up from other trainers but I think not normally first time for the yard and not after an absence from the track also He also seems very good at getting consecutive wins out of horses.
Correspondance was also with a good yard previously. I personally don't think today is the day for this horse, although I think better can be expected in the future. Dam was very capable 2yo for Mark Johnston in 2019 before doing well in USA, whilst I think final start for Harry Eustace can be thrown out after racing wide at Chelmsord from a bad draw, (when also weak in the market).

Tony Carroll has got several runners at the meeting today, ( a card with excellent prize-money but restricted to riders with limited number of wins in the past year - meaning not all jockeys he might have used are available to ride in this race. Gina Mangan has lot of rides on the card - for me, her best chance is Galaxy Wonder for same trainer, (a horse that won last time out and having just third start today for the yard).

As for the 2.12 race, I'm being boring but think Em Four is pretty solid. Ran well last time after stumbling and getting hampered in early race, (although as a decent pace t the race which probably helped him overall). The third home that day won next time, whist the second qnd fourth have run well again. Possibly not too much room in this one's mark but race doesn't look packed full of well-handicapped horses. Jockey is inexperienced but rode him last time, for the first time hich I'd say is a small positive for today too.

Ziggy's Queen looks a contender to me too. Won last time, (scraping home), but is unexposed on the aw, (actually won her last two on the surface) and last time was after a break. Yard are venturing south and this looks their best chance to me, although nothing to suggest she is well handicapped really. Richard Fahey is no stranger to winning big money in handicaps so probably that's a positive on a card with good prize-money.

I think there have been more high-prize money cards for moderate horses on the AW in the past year or so, (often on a Sunday). Sometimes making the card rider-restricted is interesting move by the BHA as it's helping give worthwhile chances to less-fancied/out of favour and young apprentice jockeys, (ie: trainers are probably more likely to be runnig triers when the prize-money is good relative to the normal level for the class).
 
Last edited:
Chesham said:

The "Tony Carroll Project"​

Correspondence is a fascinating, if risky, proposition in today's field. While his recent form figures (40-0) are uninspiring and the Betfair market is cold, the move to Tony Carroll—a trainer renowned for revitalizing cheap purchases and handicap sprinters—is a significant angle.

  • Verdict: A classic "watcher" for market moves late on. He is genetically bred to be far better than a Class 5 handicapper (rated 68). If Carroll has fixed the temperament issues that caused him to pull his chances away previously, he is dangerously well-handicapped on his best form (Timeform 77). The switch from Blinkers (which caused a blowout last time) to Cheekpieces is a key positive equipment change.

1. Pedigree & Genetic Analysis​

This horse is bred in the purple, making his current basement-level valuation ($15k at recent sales) and rating somewhat shocking.

Bloodline Breakdown​

  • Sire: WAR FRONT (USA)
    • One of the world's elite sires. Known for imparting precocity, speed, and turf/synthetic ability. His progeny typically excel at 6f to 8f. War Fronts often have a high cruising speed but can be headstrong.
  • Dam: WALK IN MARRAKESH (IRE) (by Siyouni)
    • A high-class 2yo who won at 7f and placed in a G1 Mile.
    • Family: She is a half-sister to smart sprinters Zipping and Nipping.
  • Nicking: The War Front x Siyouni cross blends the speed of the Danzig line with the class of the Nureyev line. This is a pedigree built for a high-cruising speed over 6f–7f.

Estimated Speed Gene: C:C (Sprint/Mile)​

  • Genotype Prediction: C:C (Short/Speed oriented).
  • Best Distance: 6f – 7f.
  • Analysis: War Front is a dominant source of speed (C-allele), and the dam’s family is speed-oriented. Correspondence has likely inherited a "fast" metabolic type. His failure to stay 7f/1m in previous runs was likely due to energy expenditure (pulling hard) rather than a lack of genetic stamina, but 6f is his natural genetic home.

2. Timeform & Performance Data​

Current Official Rating (OR): 68 Timeform Master Rating: 77 Adjusted Rating: 88 (Competitive in this field)

Key Form Cycle Analysis​

  1. The Potential (Jun/Sep 2025):
    • He ran to a Timeform 77 when 3rd at Brighton and 2nd at Newcastle.
    • Note: At Newcastle (Sep 11), he split horses now rated significantly higher. He showed ability but "raced freely."
  2. The Blowout (23 Oct 25 - Chelmsford 6f):
    • Result: 10/10, beaten 29L.
    • Excuse: First-time Blinkers. Timeform noted: "Hardly looked an ideal candidate for blinkers... free... lost place."
    • Interpretation: The headgear lit him up; he panicked and ran his race in the first two furlongs. That run is a "throw-out."

The Trainer Switch: Harry Eustace → Tony Carroll​

  • Tony Carroll is a specialist with this type of profile: a well-bred castoff with ability but temperament quirks.
  • Carroll excels at Chelmsford and on the AW circuit generally.
  • Equipment Change: Today he wears Cheekpieces (p) instead of Blinkers. This is a crucial positive. Cheekpieces offer some focus without the claustrophobia of blinkers that caused his last failure.

3. Race Dynamics: Chelmsford 2.12 (6f)​

Pace Map Analysis​

  • Correspondence (Draw 4): Projected Pace 0.572.
  • The Setup: The pace is forecast to be Even.
    • Leaders: Ziggy's Condor (10) and Lady Wingalong (7) are likely to go forward.
    • Correspondence's Position: From Draw 4, he can sit just behind the leaders in the "pocket."
  • Tactical Advantage: Chelmsford 6f favors horses who can travel kindly on the rail and kick. If the leaders go too hard (Ziggy's Condor can be aggressive), Correspondence is perfectly drawn to pick up the pieces—if he settles.

4. Statistical & Market Insight​

Why the lack of Betfair Support?​

  • Recency Bias: Bettors see the "0" (29L defeat) last time and shy away.
  • Trainer Pattern: While Carroll is good, his recruits often need a run or two to settle into his system and drop to a winning mark. The market may be waiting for "signs of life" before backing him.
  • Drifter: If he drifts out to 20/1+, it suggests the yard isn't expecting a win today ("a watching brief"). However, if money comes late (5 mins before off), respect it instantly.

The "Value" Angle​

  • He is running off OR 68.
  • His maiden form (TF 77) suggests he is a 75+ horse when right.
  • He is effectively 7-10lbs well-in if he reproduces his Newcastle run from September.

Final Report Conclusion​

Correspondence is a classic "regressive" profile that has landed in the hands of a "revivalist" trainer. The pedigree screams quality (War Front), but the mental application has been lacking (pulling hard).

Gina Mangan takes the ride on Correspondence today.

  • Significance: This is a positive "fresh start." George Wood rode the horse in his past starts (including the disastrous blinkers run and the promising Brighton run). A new pair of hands—especially Gina Mangan, who is strong but sympathetic—might be exactly what a headstrong horse needs to reset mentally.

Recommendation: If you can forgive the 29-length defeat, he is the class act of the field running at a basement price. He is a dangerous each-way player, but the lack of market support suggests the win might be for another day. Watch the market closely: if he touches 8/1 or shorter, the stable is confident.
Click to expand...
Chesham Chesham, now that’s a great post. Thanks
 
matty1976 said:
re Correspondance, Tony Carroll is a very capable trainer and normally can get a horse to win after picking horses up from other trainers but I think not normally first time for the yard and not after an absence from the track also He also seems very good at getting consecutive wins out of horses.
Correspondance was also with a good yard previously. I personally don't think today is the day for this horse, although I think better can be expected in the future. Dam was very capable 2yo for Mark Johnston in 2019 before doing well in USA, whilst I think final start for Harry Eustace can be thrown out after racing wide at Chelmsord from a bad draw, (when also weak in the market).

Tony Carroll has got several runners at the meeting today, ( a card with excellent prize-money but restricted to riders with limited number of wins in the past year - meaning not all jockeys he might have used are available to ride in this race. Gina Mangan has lot of rides on the card - for me, her best chance is Galaxy Wonder for same trainer, (a horse that won last time out and having just third start today for the yard).

As for the 2.12 race, I'm being boring but think Em Four is pretty solid. Ran well last time after stumbling and getting hampered in early race, (although as a decent pace t the race which probably helped him overall). The third home that day on next time, whist the second qnd fourth have run well again. Possibly not too much room in this one's mark but race doesn't look packed full of well-handicapped horses. Jockey is inexperienced but rode him last time, for the first time hich I'd say is a small positive for today too.

Ziggy's Queen looks a contender to me too. Won last time, (scraping home), but is unexposed on the aw, (actually won her last two on the surface) and last time was after a break. Yard are venturing south and this looks their best chance to me, although nothing to suggest she is well handicapped really. Richard Fahey is no stranger to winning big money in handicaps so probably that's a positive on a card with good prize-money.

I think there have been more high-prize money cards for moderate horses on the AW in the past year or so, (often on a Sunday). Sometimes making the card rider-restricted is interesting move by the BHA as it's helping give worthwhile chances to less-fancied/out of favour and young apprentice jockeys, (ie: trainers are probably more likely to be runnig triers when the prize-money is good relative to the normal level for the class).
Click to expand...
M matty1976 great post
 
See the following for a strategy that Tony Caroll seems to exploit. Likely to change now it’s on an open part of the forum and over bet in the future , but another winner for this strategy won yesterday

Chesham said:
Noticed from feeding all the Timeform comments that the horse leads from the front, Improves if the horse has run at least once in recent starts from the front. Makes sense , low weight and not likely to slow down. One winner dropped using this filter but 5 losers removed

View attachment 162931
Click to expand...
 
Chesham said:
See the following for a strategy that Tony Caroll seems to exploit. Likely to change now it’s on an open part of the forum and over bet in the future , but another winner for this strategy won yesterday
Click to expand...
Thanks Chesham Chesham I did see this post and thought it was interesting. I have a couple of questions just to clarify really without wanting to sound silly.

What is weight v min ? Exactly Min weight
RC_start / front runner ? Between 1 & 8

Cheers Dave
 
Hi Chesham Chesham & Dave Dave regarding the 2.12 today I actually like Ziggys Condor not to be confused with the other Ziggy in the race, yes I know its on a 14 run losing streak & its never run at Chelmsford, but the trainer has decided to go down south bypassing midlands & northern venues, it's last 3 runnings are very encouraging & imho there are no world beaters in here, having said that there will be hidden horses in the race as Chesham Chesham & Dave Dave said Correspondence fits a pattern as do Em Four & Lady Wingalong I actually won't be backing in the race but best of luck all those that do
 
Last edited:
The selections I’ve made this past week using this logic are as follows:

6/1. Wolves. East Tyrone 1st @ 18/1
6/1. Southwell. Glory Fighter x @16/1
6/1. Southwell. The Spotlight Kid 2nd @ 16/1
7/1. Lingfield. Taranjerine 2nd @ 10/1
7/1. Lingfield. No Return 2nd @ 66/2
7/1. Lingfield. Nubough 2nd @ 14/1
7/1. Lingfield. Twirler 2nd@ 22/1
7/1. Kempton. Stay Sharp 3rd @ 14/1
7/1. Kempton. Port Road 1st @ 10/1
8/1. Chelmsford. Florella Princess 2nd @ 33/1

11/1. Chelmsford. Correspondence? @ 28/1

I’ve been this game long enough to understand beginners luck. I’ve also seen many threads where people have posted great results and then the curse of the forum strikes and it all goes to Rat shit.

This is a very short period so no judgement as yet but I’ve been happy to have been winning.

I will keep this up for a month and post my selections just as an honesty check and no possible back fitting which we all know works till you place the bets.

Correspondence, is slightly different to the other selections in that all the others have an ability figure based on prize money (VDW) style that is more or less equal or greater to the prize money for the race they are running in and they have shown what appears to be regression over the last 2/3 races. Eg poor finishing position as a result of run over incorrect distances or unfavourable course or such things as headgear as in correspondence case.

If nothing else it will keep me busy and it’s opened up some debate on here.

Cheers Dave.
 
Good luck Dave.

I mentioned elsewhere when there was a RR meeting, my first angle would be the jockey booking.

The Southwell meeting on the 4th january, saw Callan and Mangan share 6 winners between them.

I did say Callan was cheating the system in a way, as had ridden 1500+ winners in the UK, plus his stints abroad.

Mangan was also close to the qualifying threshold. She was actually my biggest loser by jockey but I've always thought she never got the rides she deserved.

If you kick the price ratio that Chesham Chesham , she performs very well and she did bag winners @ 40/1 and 22/1 last year.

I'm not sure if this meeting is one the extras thrown in to cover the loss of fixtures, but the recent ones have indicated trainers have identified jocks lined up for these RR races.

I would have said a couple of years ago Tony Carroll will be getting Correspondence down to around 54, for either Bath or next the next winter campaign, but has thrown up a couple of outliers @ 40/1 & 22/1 ( Total coincidence with the Mangan stat).
 
doomster said:
Good luck Dave.

I mentioned elsewhere when there was a RR meeting, my first angle would be the jockey booking.

The Southwell meeting on the 4th january, saw Callan and Mangan share 6 winners between them.

I did say Callan was cheating the system in a way, as had ridden 1500+ winners in the UK, plus his stints abroad.

Mangan was also close to the qualifying threshold. She was actually my biggest loser by jockey but I've always thought she never got the rides she deserved.

If you kick the price ratio that Chesham Chesham , she performs very well and she did bag winners @ 40/1 and 22/1 last year.

I'm not sure if this meeting is one the extras thrown in to cover the loss of fixtures, but the recent ones have indicated trainers have identified jocks lined up for these RR races.

I would have said a couple of years ago Tony Carroll will be getting Correspondence down to around 54, for either Bath or next the next winter campaign, but has thrown up a couple of outliers @ 40/1 & 22/1 ( Total coincidence with the Mangan stat).
Click to expand...
doomster doomster thanks and good comments

Cheers Dave
 
I’ve also had the following bet Chelmsford 15:42 - Tolstoy @ 16/1 E/W backed it last night.

There has been support for it today so that price has gone.

I won’t get to see either live as we are at a 90th birthday party for father in law.

I will add it to the list of selections.

Cheers Dave
 
I did write up on some page here how ryan on olbg used to pick his horses and was on the idea horses at prices who had older form could bounze back for the class of race there in today.
But then yesterday there was something skelton said before a race yesterday got me thinking of why he said it and straight away i looked at the next two races and got both f/cast up and in both cases the outsider was in both those f/cast so right away he got be good returns at a price.
Any way back to this race and thinking along those lines first of all i don,t think CORRESPONDENCE has shown anything so far to say it is any better than these ever so has its work cut out to prove different yet.
I would also add when i went through this race i did rate it the toughest race of the day by far, But the horse i thought had the ability to be better than these is ZIGGYS CONDOR never raced at this track but i think could be a plus nearly never runs a bad race on all weather first 4 and class in no worry at all even at 8k race.
I would say is stick on e/w bet in toughest race of day.
 
Unlucky with Tolstoy, Dave Dave, as in my view he was probably there expected to win.

Moving stables as a 5yo made all the difference as Mr Ellison found that Tolstoy was better above sprint distances and once over 7f he won three in a row and indeed another over 8f. But that of course hugely impacted his OR, which rose from 74 (the win on 14/06/24) to 91 on his last run that year.

It took three runs last year to get Tolstoy's OR back to his last winning OR, indeed 1lb below, and when they dropped him in class, into the same York race as he had won a year earlier, this time with a 7lb claimer up, I am sure they expected to win. In the event he was beaten a neck, over a length clear of the third.

It wasn't until September that he was back down below an OR of 86 again, and prior to that in 2025 the average OR of the races he contested was 87.0. If we ignore the Doncaster race in September as being clearly well beyond his ability, the average OR of the three since then, including todays, was 78.8. All three have, however, been above that of the only race he came close to winning in 2025, 74.9.

My performance ratings suggest that Tolstoy progressed significantly as a 5yo and although regressing as a 6yo his median performance figure on those ratings was higher than during his 4yo year. It remains to be seen whether likely further regression as a 7yo will mean he will need a race of even lower average OR than today's (77.4) in order to win. I will be keeping an eye out for him at around that level or lower, and with Mr Ellison's horses market position tends to be indicative.
 
Dave said:
What is weight v min ? Exactly Min weight
Click to expand...
This is from the Horseracebase system builder - "the weight difference (in pounds) carried by the horse compared to the bottom weighted horse in the race". You can pick from a range 50lbs heavier down to Min Weight.
 
Dave said:
RC_start / front runner ? Between 1 & 8
Click to expand...
Again from HRB, fairly recent addition. "In the last 10 races of the horse, the number of times the run comments starting position bracket was Front Runner"

RC project is "in development stage".
 
Hi Dave Dave

Sorry just spotted your post

Chesham said:
Hi sniper7 sniper7

View attachment 162922View attachment 162923
Click to expand...

Dave said:
Thanks Chesham Chesham I did see this post and thought it was interesting. I have a couple of questions just to clarify really without wanting to sound silly.

What is weight v min ? Exactly Min weight
RC_start / front runner ? Between 1 & 8

Cheers Dave
Click to expand...
This is the System Alert that I have set up the RC -Front was just an observation to the Original System Post so ignore RC Start comment.

The minimum weight is that the horse should be carrying the minimum weight (Bottom Weight) with Harry taking off 7lbs the horse carried bottom physical weight in the race

Yesterday met the criteria But although winning today again did not meet that criteria


Another angle is to explore the Jockeys Run style and match that to the horses Run Style . ie if the horse on recent starts has matched similar run style, and has the form and the jockey is more than capable of riding the run style that suits the horse, (positive)

IMG_5037.jpeg
 
You must log in or register to reply here.
Back
Top