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Today's All Weather Racing

Dave

Colt
I’m new to the forum and although I often read the various threads which in the most I find very interesting and I often coming away having learnt something new or a seed of thought has been planted as to how I can improve my approach. I generally focus my attention on the All Weather racing as I have a limited amount of time on my hands so I needed to narrow my focus. I appreciate that it isn’t the greatest quality of racing but there are a sufficient number of race days to keep me interested and often the prices are good.

It is my intention to try and post a few thoughts each day for horses of interest with the aim of trying to identify some potential winners. I’m not trying to be a tipster in any way shape or form just felt it was about time that I contributed to the forum. They most likely wont be in such detail as today as time is the issue.

Kempton 4:35 Class 6 H’cap (0-60) for 3Yo+ over 2 Miles

Medburn Cutler : Although the horse is drawn the widest in gate 11 I don’t really see this as an issue especially in a race of this distance and quality. The previous running style suggests the horse likes to be held up and the majority of winners over this distance at Kempton tend to be held up.

Finished 3rd LTO at Newbury in the soft over today’s distance in a class 5 race 12 days ago. This leads me to believe that the distance and the horse’s fitness isn’t a problem. Paul has a few bookings in later races on Saeed bin Suroor horses. Is Paul using this race to gauge how the track is riding before he jumps on the Godolphin horses or has the horse got a genuine chance. Currently priced between 7-1 and 8-1 in a race that has very little quality then I’m interested.

Negatives really are the fact that the horse has run once at Kempton on its debut back in March 2014 and it wasn’t that great. Although it hasn’t really shown a liking for either AW or RH tracks it is still early days and in the summer the horse moved to Paul Henderson’s yard and it has improved for that move.

Kempton 6:10

This looks an interesting race. Saeed bin Suroor has a very good strike rate on the AW and is currently running at about 30% at Kempton.
Muqarred - Saeed bin Suroor and Paul Hanagan
This is the horse of most interest to me. Already had a previous run at Kempton over 6F it is now stepped up to 7F and down a grade in class. The price isn’t that great currently about 2-1.

The others of interest are who could be anything and Kevin Stott takes his claim of the horse of 5lbs and has 50% strike rate (2/4) at the course so he is handy claimer.
Keep In Line - Saeed bin Suroor and Kevin Stott (5)

I’m interest are who could be anything and Kevin Stott takes his claim of the horse of 5lbs and has 50% strike rate (2/4) at the course so he is handy claimer. Often the outsider of the two Godolphin horses tends to do well at bigger prices.

Estikhraaj - Roger Varian and Graham Lee
Roger Varian’s runners are always of interest as are Haggas’s on the AW

Kemp 6:40
Evening Rain - Saeed bin Suroor and Kevin Stott (5).

This will be a very interesting race. Having previously won money on Evening Rain with Kevin Stott riding the horse has to be of interest. The concern I have is it is up in class and distance.

Be Bold - Richard Hannon and Cam Hardie (3). My preference is for Be Bold who is a proven 7F horse and the class also proven on the track and I believe is improving. The other Godolphin horse Four Season is certainly capable but the current 8-1 on Be Bold looks good value in a competitive race.

Kemp 7:10
Rydan - Robert Mills and Tom Queally

Currently the favourite at 2-1 and the jockey booking is significant Tom has won 2/3 on the horse and the horse is 1 out 2 at Kempton. This is a competitive race and Rydan is of interest.

Grendisar to me looks the biggest danger Marco Botti trained but coming back off a long lay off puts me off. I like to know a horse is race fit.


Kemp 7:40

A competitive race in which I see the following horses being the main dangers
Khatiba Roger Varian and Graham Lee
The horse is proven over course and distance and is race fit. I believe the horse can win but there are a number who have the ability to win this. The price is shorter than I would have like for a competitive race like this.

Musaddas Saeed bin Suroor and Kevin Stott (5)

The concern I have is the horse is coming back from a lengthy lay off . That said it has ran a very strong race over 1M at Kempton earlier in the year. Currently 0/4 attempts at Kempton and no winning form over 7F. Kevin Stott taking his claim off will help but this is going to be tough.

Santefisio Keith Dalgleish and Jimmy Fortune. Quick returner for Keith and a very capable jockey in the saddle.

Bluegrass Blues Paul Cole and Luke Morris. The trainer and Jockety combination are always dangerous on the AW. The Horse has the proven form and is race fit.

As with all new threads I hope you find this of interest and I sincerely hope that the horses of interest deliver some race winners.

Cheers Dave
 

Dave

Colt
Well the results of my efforts threw up a number of placed efforts and a few winners. I hope to do better in my next post.

Kempton 4:35

Medburn Cutler 2nd @ 7/1


Kempton 6:10
Muqarred 3rd @4/1
Keep In Line not placed
Estikhraaj
not placed

Kemp 6:40
Be Bold 2nd@8/1
Evening Rain not placed


Kemp 7:10
Rydan 3rd @ 15/8 F
Grendisar 1st @ 10/3


Kemp 7:40
Khatiba 2nd @ 3/1
Musaddas 1st @ 9/2
Santefisio unplaced
Bluegrass Blues unplaced
 

Dave

Colt
Thursday 06/11/2014

Well let’s see if we can improve on the fortunes of yesterday. There were a couple of winners and some near misses yesterday. Today we have racing from Wolverhampton.

Wolves 4:35 Maiden Stakes Class 5 3yo+ over 7 F

Nightlight: This filly has already proven she handles the Tapeta surface and the distance having finished a good second. Jeremy Noseda has a very good strike rate (30%) at Wolves and he is 2/4 in recent weeks which suggests his horses are in fine form. Graham Lee is booked to ride which is another positive.

That said there are certainly dangers in the race. Yard of Ale put up a good performance last time at wolves over the distance so we know this gelding handles the surface and the distance and I believe will go off at a much larger price than Nightlight. Some of that will be Noseda factor which has to be respected. It is true that Kristin Stubbs doesn’t have the same profile or strike rate which is taken into consideration. Graham Gibbons is on board and for me he is very good All Weather jockeys.

I believe the two biggest dangers will be Memorial Day is trained by Saeed bin Suroor and ridden by Frederik Tylicki. Saeed bin Suroor has a slightly better strike rate than Noseda at 31% at Wolves which is incredible and this is a very well bred Colt. The other danger is another well bred colt by the name of Intimidator trained by Clive Brittain and ridden by Tom Queally.

The outcome will be interesting. I believe Memorial Day will be the best of the newcomers coming from a very powerful and in form yard. Nightlife has the experience and is proven on both course and distance so in theory should have the edge. That said Colts generally outperform Fillies and Saeed bin Suroor can have a horse race ready for its debut. For me a lot will depend on the market if the money comes in for the Godolphin horse then they will be expecting a winner and I will be going fo rthe win and a bit of insurance with a sneaky little reverse forecast.

Wolves 7:10 Claiming Stakes

For me the two standout horses are Stonefield Flyer and Realize but there is a big danger in the form of Powerful Pierre.

Stonefield Flyer – I recently won money backing this gelding. The fact that Keith Dalgleish is turning him out so quickly means the horse is in good form and well capable of landing this event. It won a competitive class 4 event worth £12K in a good time at Kempton. Keith Dalgleish tends do quite well with his quick returners I think he likes to strike whilst the iron is still hot. It just depends how much that competitive race has taken out of the horse and I believe the horse is better over 7F than todays 6F.

Realize – Has a pretty good record at Wolves certainly has proven form on the surface and the distance and the combination of Hughie Morrison and Daniel Tudhope makes them a big danger.

Powerful Pierre – Recent form has been great but most of that has been on soft ground. This horse is a difference proposition on the AW and especially at Wolverhampton. However that was on the old surface so it will be interesting to see how handles the new surface. Toby Atkinson takes 5lbs off which will help and older horse often do well in Claiming races. The horse last raced 10 days ago so it is race fit. I believe that if this horse reproduces his old Wolverhampton form then he could be in the money at what should be a very good price. I haven't as yet decided how I will play this race. I will have an EW bet on Powerful Pierre and maybe a combination forecast with three named.

Good luck with whatever you do . If I have more information or thought I will update the post.



Cheers Dave
 

Dave

Colt
The following is an update as it should read hasn't been not has been. Sorry

Powerful Pierre – Recent form hasn't been great but most of that has been on soft ground. This horse is a difference proposition on the AW and especially at Wolverhampton. However that was on the old surface so it will be interesting to see how handles the new surface. Toby Atkinson takes 5lbs off which will help and older horse often do well in Claiming races. The horse last raced 10 days ago so it is race fit. I believe that if this horse reproduces his old Wolverhampton form then he could be in the money at what should be a very good price. I haven't as yet decided how I will play this race. I will have an EW bet on Powerful Pierre and maybe a combination forecast with three named.


This is also an update on my days thoughts

Wolves 7:40

Solar Diety. -Marco Botti trained with Martin Harley in the seat. Martin has ridden this horse 9 times and won on 5 of those occasions. Marco has quite a good strike rate at wolves (20%). In my opinion if this horse is race fit it will win this race based on the form previously shown on AW surfaces over this distance. The horse has previously raced at Wolves on 6 occasion winning 3. This horse certainly has the class to win a race like this but the big questions are based around the fitness as the horse has been off the race track for quiet a long time and how he handles the Tapeta surface.
Maverick Wave - John Gosden and Ginger Jack - Keith Dalgleish are the main dangers. Both have proven race fitness and are proven at the distance. However they are unproven on the Tapeta surface. Keith Dalgleish has a good strike rate with his quick returners so a Ginger Jack is a danger. John Gosden has a good strike rate at wolves and he his horse is capable of winning a race like this. However good flat turf form doesn't necessarily translate on the AW and that is a serious consideration.
Normally I look for a horse that have proven race fitness. However, Marco Botti has proven in the past that he knows how to get a horse ready as seen yesterday. I believe the race fitness question will affect the price and as a consequence we might see some good value in this horse. As a betting proposition if the price is right then it could be a good EW bet.
 
I have been looking at the 7:40 on HRB. I thought it a good test for some of the things I have been learning on the VDW threads.

I must admit that I found reasons not back just about all of the horses. but the two that stood out somewhat from the pack were solar diety and maverick wave.

One point from RP was that Solar Deity has been in the UAE and I think that Meydan has tapeta, although the horse did not place in any of the races.

Good luck

Steve
 

Dave

Colt
I have been looking at the 7:40 on HRB. I thought it a good test for some of the things I have been learning on the VDW threads.

I must admit that I found reasons not back just about all of the horses. but the two that stood out somewhat from the pack were solar diety and maverick wave.

One point from RP was that Solar Deity has been in the UAE and I think that Meydan has tapeta, although the horse did not place in any of the races.

Good luck

Steve
Thanks Steve for the reply. I must admit that I haven't used HRB but maybe this is something I should look to invest in. I would be interested to understand your finding on the VDW threads. There is always room to improve on knowledge and having the knowledge is often the key to success.

As for Solar Deity it doesn't surprise me that this horse has been running in Meydan as it is a useful performer on the AW. I watched it win a couple of times last year and I was impressed with the manner in which it went about its wins. Maverick Wave will be interesting as it does have the class to do well.

Well fingers crossed and thanks for the comments.
 

Ferdy

Colt
Wolv 19:10 Stonefield Flyer is a non runner.
I have rated this race and have Searchlight top rated on 106, with Best Trip second on 96.
 
Last edited:
Hi Dave Dave first thing to say is I am very much a losing novice in search of knowledge. all words after this may be incredibly noddy to most but they just reflect the state of my experience so far.

The VDW threads by Bobajobber Bobajobber and mtoto mtoto are very interesting as the topic of VDW seems to have reached the same level of passion in racing circles as the words of JC had in 1st century Palestine for religiously motivated!

But the multiple opinions expressed do allow a reader to determine some important common elements.

First thing to say is I seem to have figured out there is no shortcut or free lunch. like all other aspects of life application, persistence, learning and experience are key to whatever success you wish to achieve.

1. Pick your races, however you do it, stats, higher quality only, HRB, or the many other implied methods. this seems to be a very important starting point.
2. An alternative starting point seems to be pick your potential horses. mtoto mtoto has a database of horses he has rated, other maintain ability/speed/other lists of horses. with this list you can narrow the races considered and the horses considered when analysing a race. John Gibby seems to use this sort of method outlined in his book Well Handicaped Horses.
3. Once you have picked your race you seem to then have plethora of options for analysing it, I must admit that I have only the sketchiest idea of how most of the racing gods undertake this. VDW seems to have some very specific and heavily debated methods for undertaking the analysis of a race and the previous races of the participating horses.
4. Review the shortlist of horses you come up with and then move to a more creative and less systematic phase of your review by studying the form of the shortlist, much of this stage seems to be about finding reasons not to bet on a horse.
5. Then use you you years of experience, accumulated data, past bets, risk appetite ....... to decide to back a selection or not.

My method for looking at the 7:40 was to look on HRB (Which I can thoroughly recommend) for a higher class race, I found this was the only class 2 on offer today.

I then looked at the card on HRB and used a Chesham Chesham inspired technique for profiling a race using a V4 query. this narrowed down the successful trainers on this type of race.

Going back to the card I then profiled each horse from each of the trainers I had identified (and actually all the other horses, as I was enjoying myself).

The Horse profiler is excellent and this led me to a shortlist. Excluding horses that had not raced at this distance before or horses that had poor aw records, there were other decision but my memory fails as to what they were.

I then bottled it and craved external opinion, so I bought an online racing post, which reinforced some of my thinking but also showed me the the poor Meydan performance mentioned above.

Anyway I enjoyed the process and learnt that HRB is good, that additional sources of data and information help. basic stuff I know but that's where I am at for present.

Good luck

Steve
 
Oh I forgot the other big learning so far.... Disciplined betting .... Nothing like blowing a hard built 120 pound betting bank (built mainly from paid for rating services, no real skill from me) on a CERTAIN win for Australia v Argentina in the rugby..... No never doing that.
 

Dave

Colt
Been really busy today and only just found time to get this together. I hope it is of interest.

07/11/2014.
A good friend of mine questioned my thoughts for yesterdays Wolves 4:35. The main question was why I had not mentioned Gharaaneej in my selections. The reason was I was letting my heart rule my head. I had previously lost money on this horse and felt that it potentially would be a disappointment. I knew it was a pivotal horse and they tended to do well on the AW. That said I was convinced that the race was centred on Nightlight and Memorial Day. The result proved me wrong but only but a nose….
Nightlife 2nd@ 3/1
Memorial Day 3rd @ 5/2
Wolves 7:10
Stonefield Flyer was a non runner and this meant Realize was my main bet in this race. Realize was 1st @9/4 and won in a very fast time. Kevin Ryan has claimed the horse and I can see this horse winning plenty of races this winter. As for Powerful Pierre he was unseated after Fitz Flyer fell but he was well beaten at that point. We will never really know what the outcome would have been had Fitz Flyer not fallen. Personally I don’t believe any of the horse affected would have beaten Realize.
Wolves 7:40 – Solar Diety simply ran poorly and wasn’t up to the task. The form shown last year just wasn’t there.


Today’s Racing is at Wolverhampton.

Wolves 4-35 Spinning Cobblers looks the best of this bunch. Won well at Kempton last week over 7F and looks to have the speed to win this and is race fit. Stuart Williams stable appears to be in form with 1 winner out of 3 races in the last two weeks.

Wolves 6-10 Pipers Note is of interest in this trappy race. Finished 2nd last week at Kempton over the distance. I also believe that Amadeus Wolfe will be there about. Jamie Osborne and ridden by Tom Queally combination looks promising. Foxtrot Romeo is also a big danger as Marco Botti’s yard are in good form.

Wolves 6-40
This is a poor 2 year old race. Frozen Princess trained by Jamie Osborne and ridden by Tom Queally combination that is always worth serious consideration. This 2Yo Filly is out of Showcasing and they tend to be quite speedy types. Osbourne’s stable is in pretty good shape having had 2 winners from 8 races in the last two weeks. The main danger I believe will be from Wiseton David Barron and Graham Gibbons combine and the also are a dangerous combination.

Wolves 7-10 Last Minute Lisa there could be good EW value in this race, a quick returner that finished in 7th in a competitive fast run race at Lingfield. This is a big drop in class. The Kirk stable haven’t seen a winner for sometime but the booking of Luke Morris is a positive.
Wolves 7:40 This is a hard one to call Daaree has a great record at wolves 2/2 and is race fit. However this is a step up in class and distance which puts me off even for a horse trained by Saeed bin Suroor. I believe that Gabrial’s King has the ability and the class to win this race. He has a good strike rate at the distance 2 from 5. The horse also has a good strike rate at Wolves winning 5 from 13 but this was on the old surface and I’m hopeful that form will convert that Tapeta. Norab is a young progressive horse that is proven at the distance and on the surface. Marco Botti’s horses are in fine fettle and he has won 3 from 14 in the last two weeks. This is a step up in class but he may be capable.

Good luck with whatever you bet on today.....
 

Dave

Colt
Today has been a successful one with a number of winners. I was fortunate enough to have got the forecast up in the 6-10. I wasn't so smart though as I took the 16/1 early price on Gabrial's King as I though the price was far too big. Then to see it drift out to 33/1 was a bit of a shock. I hope my days thoughts helped you to pick a few winners.

Wolves 4-35 Spinning Cobblers 1st @ 3/1
Wolves 6-10 Foxtrot Romeo 1st @ 7/2. Pipers Note 2nd @ 6/1. Amadeus Wolf Tone unplaced
Wolves 6-40 Frozen Princess 1st @ 7/2 Wiseton unplaced.
Wolves 7-10 Last Minute Lisa unplaced
Wolves 7-40 Gabrial's King 2nd @ 33/1. Norab 3rd @ 7/2. Daaree unplaced.
 
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