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Today's All Weather Racing

sorry AI, secon attempt

📊 Skiena Value Overlay (clean)​


HorseBFDECValue SignalOverlay
Adelaide Bay50.004.22BF ≫ DEC🟢 Massive value
Ottawa12.007.10BF > DEC🟢 Value
Yehudi6.607.42BF < DEC🔴 Overbet
Enpassant7.007.70BF < DEC🔴 Overbet
Harbour Vision32.007.82BF ≫ DEC🟢 Strong value
Toussarok10.008.67BF > DEC🟢 Value
Blue Eclipse11.509.88BF > DEC🟡 Marginal
Lessay6.8011.76BF < DEC🔴 Strong underlay
Renewable Dream25.0033.66BF < DEC🔴 No value
Maid In Chelsea5.3041.82BF ≪ DEC🔴 Severe overbet
Pickersgill42.0081.84BF < DEC🔴 Underlay
 
Dave said:
I agree it looks quite competitive. Not much between them on their best recent form

On my ratings I have the following
Made In China 68
Yehudi 67
Lessay 67
Toussarok 67
Ottawa 66
Blue Eclipse 66
Enpassant 66
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Well, what can I say I spent awhile on that race and I didn’t see that happening. I had discounted the horse based on its last two runs finishing last in both races and not looking good. The race prior to those two poor runs he had won over C&D. I can only say the stewards need to have a few questions as to how the horse suddenly came good. Obviously, it was a plot returning 20/1.

That’s the nature of the game when playing in the basement races. But if you get it right it pays handsomely.
 
Wolves 17:00 Cardinal Point. 4 yold filly C&D winner. Won well LTO 7 days ago at Wolves Cls 5 over 12F. Upped to Cls4, Highest winning mark of 68 today 73 H’cap includes 5lbs penalty. Trainer form good and top jockey. LTO fast race, Strong FSP 106 should win.
 
Southwell 15:03 Talis Evolvere a 6Yo gelding and C&D winner. Last won 27 days ago had 1 race since finishing a good 2nd in Cls2 over 8F. Drops into Cls3 2/5 and down to 7F 1/7. Highest winning mark 95 is 88 today. LTO strong finish FSP 103 in good race.
 
Southwell 14:32 - Brazilian Rose
An inform 5yo mare that ran 7 days ago winning a Cls 5 6F race at Southwell. C&D winner, Highest winning mark 72 and is 75 H’cap includes 5lbs penalty for LTO win. Won over C&D on 3/1/26 strong closing sectional with FSP% 105.71.
 
Dave said:
Southwell 14:32 - Brazilian Rose
An inform 5yo mare that ran 7 days ago winning a Cls 5 6F race at Southwell. C&D winner, Highest winning mark 72 and is 75 H’cap includes 5lbs penalty for LTO win. Won over C&D on 3/1/26 strong closing sectional with FSP% 105.71.
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Not doing so well today. Brazilian Rose was never put in the race. I think the jockey was poor or that might have been the plan but I don’t think so.

Talis Evolvere looked a beaten horse on the bend. The winner Doctor Khan Junior showed some grit battling that one out.
 
Dave said:
Not doing so well today. Brazilian Rose was never put in the race. I think the jockey was poor or that might have been the plan but I don’t think so.

Talis Evolvere looked a beaten horse on the bend. The winner Doctor Khan Junior showed some grit battling that one out.
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I also backed Talis (3/1 Money Back if 2nd last night) Dave Dave. Puzzlingly poor run TBH.
 
PHS said:
I also backed Talis (3/1 Money Back if 2nd last night) Dave Dave. Puzzlingly poor run TBH.
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He had a tough race LTO finishing 2nd to stable companion Witch Hunter in a valuable race. Today, he looked beaten going into the bend. The jockey was trying to urge him on very early in the race as he was flat. I remember him winning the 2024 Betmgm championship mile race at Newcastle at a staggering 33/1. Which shows he’s talented but he never seems to put more than two good runs together. It might just be that 7F at Southwell is too sharp for him or he needs a break.
 
I’m very hopeful with Cardinal Point who hopefully will salvage the day. I managed to take money off the bookies yesterday and so far today I’ve managed to give them a bit back.
 
What can I say, when your lucks out it’s certainly out. Horse was travelling well, jockey went the short way around. But not once but twice he got blocked but the final boxing in was curtains. He will win again for sure but today wasn’t meant to be
 
Dave said:
He had a tough race LTO finishing 2nd to stable companion Witch Hunter in a valuable race. Today, he looked beaten going into the bend. The jockey was trying to urge him on very early in the race as he was flat. I remember him winning the 2024 Betmgm championship mile race at Newcastle at a staggering 33/1. Which shows he’s talented but he never seems to put more than two good runs together. It might just be that 7F at Southwell is too sharp for him or he needs a break.
Click to expand...
Timeform result comment

TALIS EVOLVERE (IRE) found run of good form coming to a halt, uncomfortable from a long way out over this shorter trip; mid-field, pushed along around halfway, not quicken.
 
Bit short on time last night and this morning. However, these 6 are in my tracker runners for today. All have good RaceIQ metrics/sectional data and are running at Newcastle today. Some are much bigger prices than I expected.

18:25. Wyvern
18:25. Pallas Lord
18:55. Mademoiselle Belle
18:55. Surgeon Commander
19:25. Ana Emaraaty
19:25. Lord Capulet

Hopefully, today is a much better day
 
I got all excited with Pallas Lord. I thought Pallas Lord was going to win @16/1 but Dream illusion had a different script to mine. Whatever the handicapper does her performance needs upgrading. She was blocked twice when trying to make a move and still accelerated passed mine to win. Tracker Horse for sure.

18:25. Wyvern 4th @ 4/1 win
18:25. Pallas Lord 2nd @ 16/1 E/W
18:55. Mademoiselle Belle 2nd @ 9/2 I had it at 7/1 E/W
18:55. Surgeon Commander 3rd @ 6/1
19:25. Ana Emaraaty still running E/W
19:25. Lord Capulet. 1st @ 6/4 I had it at 2/1 win

Took a bit back from the bookies. My biggest bet was on Lord Capulet so that paid off. Shame Pallas Lord or Mademoiselle Belle didn’t win.

Never mind tomorrow is another day
 
I wrote this before Corundum went NR it also was a tracker horse.

I now have 3 horses in my tracker for this race. I’m quite surprised that Magic Runner is such a big price. I think it’s a combination of a poor draw, finished 3rd LTO and the claiming jockey is back onboard. If you watch the LTO race she didn’t have a clear run when she needed it and she got worried out of it but still finished a close 3rd and that was from draw 8 out of 9.

I personally think the claimer weight allowance will help her and at 12/1 she worth an EW in a tricky race. (Obviously with the favourite going NR the market has seriously readjusted. That said there has been support as now it’s into 5/I

Stipulation looks a worthy favourite but needs something to aim at. He’s got a decent finishing speed and might turn around the result with Magic Runner. I certainly wouldn’t right off Magic Runner.
I’ve had an E/W at 12/1 early this morning on Magic Runner
STIPULATION My Rating 73 OR 65

Is an Improving 5 year old gelding who’s Course & distance winner. On my ratings I believe he’s ahead of his official handicap.

LTO was at Wolverhampton 17 days ago in a Class 6 over 9 furlongs, finishing 3/9 and beaten by 1.30 lengths by MAGIC RUNNER who re opposes tomorrow. He will be running in the same class and distance but on slightly better terms. Highest winning mark of 61 and is 65 today.

Drawn in 3 should be able to get a decent position.

The trainer jockey combination is 1 win from 13 at the course in the past 2 years. The trainer has had many winners at Wolves and his win rate is 11%. He’s had 2 from 16 races in the past 14 days so the stable are in form.

Vs.par -0.90 Time Index 6.5 Average 5.1 FSP% 102.49
MAGIC RUNNER My Rating 66 OR 61

Is an inform 4 year old filly who’s Course & distance winner. On my ratings I believe she ahead of her official handicap and she has Taryn Langley taking another 5lbs off with her claim. She won on the filly 16/1/26.

LTO was at Wolverhampton 10 days ago

in a Class 6 over 9 furlongs, where she finished 3rd by 0.6 lengths. She was ridden by James Sullivan on that occasion.

She will be running in the same class and distance and re opposing STIPULATION but on slightly worse terms. Her Highest winning mark is 59 and is 61 today. Stipulation was finishing stronger and could well reverse the placing. I think 11/1 or higher offers some EW value.

The negative is she is drawn wide and might find it difficult to get a decent position.

Vs.par -0.90 Time Index 6.5 Average 5.1 FSP% 101.77

The trainer jockey combination is 1 win from 2 at the course in the past 2 years. The trainer is 18 from 149 (12%) at the course in the past 2 years. The trainer has had 2 from 11 (18%) in the past 14 days so the stables in form.
 
I looked at this race last night Dave Dave.

I'm with you with Magic Runner. You realise that if we include apprentice allowances, she's 10lb better off with Stipulation compared to the 16th Jan race? Maybe you don't like to take those into account?

Think MR was about 8 on BF last night. I asked for half at 10 and half at 12 and both matched around 7:30am. The 22% RF is a blow considering I didn't give that one much of a chance. It's now trading around 10 on BF compared to my 8.56. Surprised to hear you say there was some 12/1 this morning.
 
I’ve just checked and you’re right it’s not 12/1 it’s 11/1 E/W. It’s the decimal price I had in my head,

IMG_1001.pngIMG_1001.png
 
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