Today's All Weather Racing
- Thread starter Dave
- Start date
Dave
Gelding
Wolverhampton 19:00
There is an interesting runner in the 19:00 at Wolverhampton called WORD OF MOUTH she’s a lightly raced 4 year old filly out of Wooten Bassett so longer distance races should suit the pedigree. She’s trained by James Ferguson and last ran 11 days ago at Wolves in a class 5 race over 1M4F. She finished 3rd in a fairly fast run race won by Cardinal Point and although she was well beaten 3rd she finished her race off well with FSP% of 103.45.
Today’s race is 1M5F 219 yards. I believe the extra distance will suit her as she took the step up in distance well last time out and she’s race fit.
As previously mentioned, she’s trained by James Ferguson and ridden by Danny Muscott. That trainer and Jockey combination is interesting. They are 3/14 (21%) at the course in the past 2 years. The trainer generally does well at Wolves with 16% strike in the past 2 years.
I know it’s a bit of a punt but she’s a big price @18/1. I’ve backed her each way as I believe she will have come on for her last run and the extra distance should suit.
I’m also interested in Maywedance in the same race at 25/1. She ran really well at Kempton on the 3/11/25 winning and went into my tracker. This is a step up in class but it’s not out of the question. Again only small EWs but at interesting prices. She’s now owned by will Willy Twiston-Davis and is no doubt in the future she’s sure to be going over hurdles.
There is an interesting runner in the 19:00 at Wolverhampton called WORD OF MOUTH she’s a lightly raced 4 year old filly out of Wooten Bassett so longer distance races should suit the pedigree. She’s trained by James Ferguson and last ran 11 days ago at Wolves in a class 5 race over 1M4F. She finished 3rd in a fairly fast run race won by Cardinal Point and although she was well beaten 3rd she finished her race off well with FSP% of 103.45.
Today’s race is 1M5F 219 yards. I believe the extra distance will suit her as she took the step up in distance well last time out and she’s race fit.
As previously mentioned, she’s trained by James Ferguson and ridden by Danny Muscott. That trainer and Jockey combination is interesting. They are 3/14 (21%) at the course in the past 2 years. The trainer generally does well at Wolves with 16% strike in the past 2 years.
I know it’s a bit of a punt but she’s a big price @18/1. I’ve backed her each way as I believe she will have come on for her last run and the extra distance should suit.
I’m also interested in Maywedance in the same race at 25/1. She ran really well at Kempton on the 3/11/25 winning and went into my tracker. This is a step up in class but it’s not out of the question. Again only small EWs but at interesting prices. She’s now owned by will Willy Twiston-Davis and is no doubt in the future she’s sure to be going over hurdles.
Dave
Gelding
Wolverhampton 18:00
I’ve had an EW bet @ 14/1 on NO RETURN in the Wolves 18:00.
He’s a 4 year old gelding by Kodiac so there is speed in the pedigree and open to improvement.
What I like. He’s drawn in 2 and he’s got some early speed. Stall 1,3 and 4 all have horses that are closers. The only other horses that have shown early speed are DYRHOLAEY drawn in 5 and MANY A STAR drawn in 7. The pace map suggests No Return should have no difficulty getting to the front or in a good strong prominent position behind one of the others who like to go forwards. His FSP% ( Final Speed Percentage ) for his last 2 runs are (105.36, 104.14) This proves he still running through the line which will be needed tonight.
He’s got to fend off some strong closers such as Betsen, Coachello Cajetan. I think at the price and how I envisage the race to. If No Return breaks fast and gets a good lead or position then he could well win or place. Coachello for me is a big danger. Betsen ran really well at Southwell but not so good LTO at Newcastle. Not sure how Wolverhampton will suit but Rossa Ryan rides today which is a big positive.
It’s going to be fast and furious.
I’ve had an EW bet @ 14/1 on NO RETURN in the Wolves 18:00.
He’s a 4 year old gelding by Kodiac so there is speed in the pedigree and open to improvement.
What I like. He’s drawn in 2 and he’s got some early speed. Stall 1,3 and 4 all have horses that are closers. The only other horses that have shown early speed are DYRHOLAEY drawn in 5 and MANY A STAR drawn in 7. The pace map suggests No Return should have no difficulty getting to the front or in a good strong prominent position behind one of the others who like to go forwards. His FSP% ( Final Speed Percentage ) for his last 2 runs are (105.36, 104.14) This proves he still running through the line which will be needed tonight.
He’s got to fend off some strong closers such as Betsen, Coachello Cajetan. I think at the price and how I envisage the race to. If No Return breaks fast and gets a good lead or position then he could well win or place. Coachello for me is a big danger. Betsen ran really well at Southwell but not so good LTO at Newcastle. Not sure how Wolverhampton will suit but Rossa Ryan rides today which is a big positive.
It’s going to be fast and furious.
Well worked out
Dave , great price.
Dave
Gelding
Thanks, about time..,,
Dave
Gelding
There were 3 horse with early speed. I hung my hat on the wrong on. The other two finished first and second. To be fair, it was a misjudgement on my behalf. I knew it had been pissing down for days and I should have know the inside draw to the rails would be dead ground. It was, nearly every winner cam down the middle which was the fastest ground.
Dave
Gelding
4/2/2026
I’m really pressed for time tomorrow so I won’t be posting too much detail. If I get the chance I will try and put my case forward for why I’ve selected the following bets.
I’ve backed 4 horse tonight all of which are tracker horses.
Kempton 15:45 Fiddlers Green @ 9.5 EW
Newcastle 17:30 Pit Boss 4.5 Win
Newcastle 19:00 Arnhem 4.5 win
Newcastle 19:00 Hover On The Wing 13.0 EW
I’m struggling to understand why Fiddlers Green and Hover On The Wind are so big. I believe they are too big.
Good luck and I hope we have some winners tomorrow.
I’m really pressed for time tomorrow so I won’t be posting too much detail. If I get the chance I will try and put my case forward for why I’ve selected the following bets.
I’ve backed 4 horse tonight all of which are tracker horses.
Kempton 15:45 Fiddlers Green @ 9.5 EW
Newcastle 17:30 Pit Boss 4.5 Win
Newcastle 19:00 Arnhem 4.5 win
Newcastle 19:00 Hover On The Wing 13.0 EW
I’m struggling to understand why Fiddlers Green and Hover On The Wind are so big. I believe they are too big.
Good luck and I hope we have some winners tomorrow.
Dave
Gelding
ok managed to find 10 minutes.
Kempton 15:45
Fiddlers Green
Is an in form 7 year old gelding who’s a C&D winner. Last ran 28 days ago at Kempton finishing 2nd beaten by 2 lengths in a fast than average race for a Class 6 over 11 furlongs.
Last won 210 days ago and had 4 races since. Today, he’s up in a class 5 race over the same C&D as LTO. His highest winning mark is 56 and is 62 today. LTO he carried 9-11 minus the 5lbs claimer allowance. Today he’s upped in carries 8-13 minus the 5lbs claimer allowance.
He’s up against stronger opponents in this class 5 but he’s off a featherweight which I believe makes him dangerous.
Kempton 15:45
Fiddlers Green
Is an in form 7 year old gelding who’s a C&D winner. Last ran 28 days ago at Kempton finishing 2nd beaten by 2 lengths in a fast than average race for a Class 6 over 11 furlongs.
Last won 210 days ago and had 4 races since. Today, he’s up in a class 5 race over the same C&D as LTO. His highest winning mark is 56 and is 62 today. LTO he carried 9-11 minus the 5lbs claimer allowance. Today he’s upped in carries 8-13 minus the 5lbs claimer allowance.
He’s up against stronger opponents in this class 5 but he’s off a featherweight which I believe makes him dangerous.
JennyK
Gelding
I agree with you about Hover on the Wing's price in the 7.00,
Dave; quite a complicated race in which apart from HOTW I am particularly interested in Brave Empire for reasons set out in part of an email I sent to a fellow sprint handicap enthusiast this morning:
"He is best on the ability ratings (both VDW’s basic and my hopefully more nuanced one) and head-and-shoulders clear on best winning performances, but all that needs to be taken with a large pinch of salt. Both are based on one win, in a decent class race exactly two years ago, but it was a 3yo only with just five runners. The Handicapper reacted fairly in my view, putting him up a pound to 95.
Roger Varian then tried him in three more decent handicaps but he showed very little, and in due course was sold and moved to Mr Furtado.
He re-appeared last May, ten months after his previous run, again in a decent handicap, but then after four runs in handicaps worth between £23,000 and £57,000 (Varian and Furtado) his next ten (and today’s) were at a much more modest level, in the range £3,700 to £6,300. No win, just a couple of 3rds, and now down from 95 to a mark of 69.
At Furtado’s they have tried him over 5f, 6f, 7f and 10f.
I am interested in his last two runs, following further wind surgery and being withdrawn from a race with some kind of infection. In both, he was prominent until fading in the last furlong, and both were over 6f, at Newcastle, which I see as a “power” course and then at Wolverhampton which, being on the turn for much of the time, can also be a tough challenge. Today he is back at Newcastle, but over 5f, which might prove right for him. That said, he ran over 5f at Newcastle on 05/12/25, coming 5th of nine, so it is far from certain that it is the right combination of course and trip.
What we have here is a horse who is only just a 5yo, dropped nearly two stone since his 3yo win, albeit in a race of rather questionable quality, being persisted with, after both gelding and two wind ops and they are trying him with a tongue tie and visor today for the first time. This suggests to me two possible scenarios:
first, it is the last throw of the dice for what so far has been a deeply disappointing horse after he had shown initial promise.
Second, connections believe he really does have worthwhile ability and with his wind issues corrected (hopefully!) he will show that ability. On this scenario he could be thrown in today off 69, carrying 8.13 and getting weight from all the other runners,
We have no way of knowing at this stage which will prove closer to what pans out over the rest of the year, and to back Brave Empire today would be an absolute punt in the dark. The sane thing to do is leave the race alone, but I might not resist a nibble at a double figure price (currently 9.0 on Betfair)."
Dave; quite a complicated race in which apart from HOTW I am particularly interested in Brave Empire for reasons set out in part of an email I sent to a fellow sprint handicap enthusiast this morning:"He is best on the ability ratings (both VDW’s basic and my hopefully more nuanced one) and head-and-shoulders clear on best winning performances, but all that needs to be taken with a large pinch of salt. Both are based on one win, in a decent class race exactly two years ago, but it was a 3yo only with just five runners. The Handicapper reacted fairly in my view, putting him up a pound to 95.
Roger Varian then tried him in three more decent handicaps but he showed very little, and in due course was sold and moved to Mr Furtado.
He re-appeared last May, ten months after his previous run, again in a decent handicap, but then after four runs in handicaps worth between £23,000 and £57,000 (Varian and Furtado) his next ten (and today’s) were at a much more modest level, in the range £3,700 to £6,300. No win, just a couple of 3rds, and now down from 95 to a mark of 69.
At Furtado’s they have tried him over 5f, 6f, 7f and 10f.
I am interested in his last two runs, following further wind surgery and being withdrawn from a race with some kind of infection. In both, he was prominent until fading in the last furlong, and both were over 6f, at Newcastle, which I see as a “power” course and then at Wolverhampton which, being on the turn for much of the time, can also be a tough challenge. Today he is back at Newcastle, but over 5f, which might prove right for him. That said, he ran over 5f at Newcastle on 05/12/25, coming 5th of nine, so it is far from certain that it is the right combination of course and trip.
What we have here is a horse who is only just a 5yo, dropped nearly two stone since his 3yo win, albeit in a race of rather questionable quality, being persisted with, after both gelding and two wind ops and they are trying him with a tongue tie and visor today for the first time. This suggests to me two possible scenarios:
first, it is the last throw of the dice for what so far has been a deeply disappointing horse after he had shown initial promise.
Second, connections believe he really does have worthwhile ability and with his wind issues corrected (hopefully!) he will show that ability. On this scenario he could be thrown in today off 69, carrying 8.13 and getting weight from all the other runners,
We have no way of knowing at this stage which will prove closer to what pans out over the rest of the year, and to back Brave Empire today would be an absolute punt in the dark. The sane thing to do is leave the race alone, but I might not resist a nibble at a double figure price (currently 9.0 on Betfair)."
Dave
Gelding
Great post, after all that work he’s now gone NR. Typical, but glad I wasn’t on my own thinking the price was wrong.I agree with you about Hover on the Wing's price in the 7.00,
"He is best on the ability ratings (both VDW’s basic and my hopefully more nuanced one) and head-and-shoulders clear on best winning performances, but all that needs to be taken with a large pinch of salt. Both are based on one win, in a decent class race exactly two years ago, but it was a 3yo only with just five runners. The Handicapper reacted fairly in my view, putting him up a pound to 95.
Roger Varian then tried him in three more decent handicaps but he showed very little, and in due course was sold and moved to Mr Furtado.
He re-appeared last May, ten months after his previous run, again in a decent handicap, but then after four runs in handicaps worth between £23,000 and £57,000 (Varian and Furtado) his next ten (and today’s) were at a much more modest level, in the range £3,700 to £6,300. No win, just a couple of 3rds, and now down from 95 to a mark of 69.
At Furtado’s they have tried him over 5f, 6f, 7f and 10f.
I am interested in his last two runs, following further wind surgery and being withdrawn from a race with some kind of infection. In both, he was prominent until fading in the last furlong, and both were over 6f, at Newcastle, which I see as a “power” course and then at Wolverhampton which, being on the turn for much of the time, can also be a tough challenge. Today he is back at Newcastle, but over 5f, which might prove right for him. That said, he ran over 5f at Newcastle on 05/12/25, coming 5th of nine, so it is far from certain that it is the right combination of course and trip.
What we have here is a horse who is only just a 5yo, dropped nearly two stone since his 3yo win, albeit in a race of rather questionable quality, being persisted with, after both gelding and two wind ops and they are trying him with a tongue tie and visor today for the first time. This suggests to me two possible scenarios:
first, it is the last throw of the dice for what so far has been a deeply disappointing horse after he had shown initial promise.
Second, connections believe he really does have worthwhile ability and with his wind issues corrected (hopefully!) he will show that ability. On this scenario he could be thrown in today off 69, carrying 8.13 and getting weight from all the other runners,
We have no way of knowing at this stage which will prove closer to what pans out over the rest of the year, and to back Brave Empire today would be an absolute punt in the dark. The sane thing to do is leave the race alone, but I might not resist a nibble at a double figure price (currently 9.0 on Betfair)."
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JennyK
Gelding
Looking at all five runners in the race Brave Empire won two years ago to the day:
Blue Prince ran off 89, today 78
Roman Emperor 81, 54
Brave Empire 94, 69
World of Darcy 88, 45
G'Mate 88, 65
The owners at the time must all have had hopes, given how their early year 3yos were rated by the Official Handicapper, but in each case the hopes came to very little. Horse ownership a very chancy business.
Blue Prince ran off 89, today 78
Roman Emperor 81, 54
Brave Empire 94, 69
World of Darcy 88, 45
G'Mate 88, 65
The owners at the time must all have had hopes, given how their early year 3yos were rated by the Official Handicapper, but in each case the hopes came to very little. Horse ownership a very chancy business.
sniper7
Yearling
The history of my small country in horse racing has shown one clear thing:
Greeks who tried to present themselves not just with ambition, but with proven success in prestigious races, ultimately went bankrupt.
The horse in my avatar is called Harmonic Way.
Most of you won’t know it, and you won’t remember it.
It was a small horse owned by a Greek woman who managed to win a race at Royal Ascot in two consecutive years.
The outcome for the owner?
Bankruptcy.
A few years later, another case: a different Greek horse, Ialysos, travelled from Greece to England to take on Group races.
He succeeded so much so that in England he was given the nickname “Greek Freak.”
The outcome for that owner?
Bankruptcy.
High hopes belong to a completely different tier of ownership owners who operate on another level entirely.
They are not meant for the majority of owners.If someone wants to have any hope at all in horse racing, the one thing they must not have is high hopes because the landing at the end is inevitable and brutal, whether you are a bettor or an owner.
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Dave
Gelding
Wolverhampton 13:22 COORAMOOK
She’s an Improving 4 year old filly. I believe she quite well handicapped. She last ran 34 days finishing 4th beaten by 2.35 lengths. That was at Lingfield in a Class 5 over 6 furlongs. Today she’s down in grade.
I’ve watch the race a couple of times now. It’s quite evident she just missed the break even though she had a pretty good draw. She was shuffled wide and stayed there for the duration of the race. On the bend she was forced very wide and had to make a charge from a very unfavourable position. She finished fairly strong and just missed out on the 3rd place.
The handicapper has kindly dropped her 1 lbs so today she runs off 62. This is her first run for Mark Loughnane and Paddy Bradley rides.
She went into my tracker for her 3rd at Wolves over 7F on 3/12/2025. That was a fairly strong race and she ran well just tiring towards the end. The drop to 6F today will suit her and she has a decent draw in 3. Normally, she breaks well and I’m looking at her LTO as an anomaly.
If she breaks well today she should get a good position and I believe she has a good EW chance at 20/1 or more.
E/W bet @ 20/1 BOG
Hoping to find time later to look at a tricky Newcastle card
She’s an Improving 4 year old filly. I believe she quite well handicapped. She last ran 34 days finishing 4th beaten by 2.35 lengths. That was at Lingfield in a Class 5 over 6 furlongs. Today she’s down in grade.
I’ve watch the race a couple of times now. It’s quite evident she just missed the break even though she had a pretty good draw. She was shuffled wide and stayed there for the duration of the race. On the bend she was forced very wide and had to make a charge from a very unfavourable position. She finished fairly strong and just missed out on the 3rd place.
The handicapper has kindly dropped her 1 lbs so today she runs off 62. This is her first run for Mark Loughnane and Paddy Bradley rides.
She went into my tracker for her 3rd at Wolves over 7F on 3/12/2025. That was a fairly strong race and she ran well just tiring towards the end. The drop to 6F today will suit her and she has a decent draw in 3. Normally, she breaks well and I’m looking at her LTO as an anomaly.
If she breaks well today she should get a good position and I believe she has a good EW chance at 20/1 or more.
E/W bet @ 20/1 BOG
Hoping to find time later to look at a tricky Newcastle card
Dave
Gelding
Newcastle 19:30
I have two selections in this race. This is something I’m quite happy to do if I feel the prices are still giving me what I perceive as Value.
DOSMAN
He’s a lightly raced unexposed 5 year old gelding. He last ran 21 days ago at Newcastle in a Class 2 over the mile and finished a good third beaten by 1.75 lengths having found traffics trouble. He went into my tracker from that race.
Today, he drops into a class 4 over the same trip. He should find this a bit calmer and If he gets his act together I believe he has the ability to win this race.
DOSMAN Win bet @ 4.3 BOG
My other selection in this race is another tracker horse CALLIANASSA
She’s an inform 5 year old mare that is a C& D winner. She last won 195 days ago and has raced twice since. LTO was 48 days ago over C& D where she finished third beaten by 1.55 lengths in a class 4 race. It was this race that she went into my tracker.
Her highest winning mark is 78 and she races off 82 today. I believe she can out run her mark .
She is too big a price at 14/1 and I’ve backed her each way.
CALLIANASSA EW bet @ 13.0 BOG
I have two selections in this race. This is something I’m quite happy to do if I feel the prices are still giving me what I perceive as Value.
DOSMAN
He’s a lightly raced unexposed 5 year old gelding. He last ran 21 days ago at Newcastle in a Class 2 over the mile and finished a good third beaten by 1.75 lengths having found traffics trouble. He went into my tracker from that race.
Today, he drops into a class 4 over the same trip. He should find this a bit calmer and If he gets his act together I believe he has the ability to win this race.
DOSMAN Win bet @ 4.3 BOG
My other selection in this race is another tracker horse CALLIANASSA
She’s an inform 5 year old mare that is a C& D winner. She last won 195 days ago and has raced twice since. LTO was 48 days ago over C& D where she finished third beaten by 1.55 lengths in a class 4 race. It was this race that she went into my tracker.
Her highest winning mark is 78 and she races off 82 today. I believe she can out run her mark .
She is too big a price at 14/1 and I’ve backed her each way.
CALLIANASSA EW bet @ 13.0 BOG