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Tissue prices

AustinDillon75

Yearling
looking at your figures I would widen the odds range a touch if you were going to use exchanges, seems about right for bookmaker odds.
I've designed them against bookies odds, so that's how they would work best. The only reason they are decimals is because I've not created a lookup via excel that will convert the decimal to a fractional odds line.

The 100% book ought not to be far out for an exchange tissue
 

AustinDillon75

Yearling
Royal Big Night 10.21 bfsp wins, top 2 first and second, nice tissue there
Yes not too bad, if its getting a bit closer with the order right but the odds are still a bit long we can look again at adjusting a bit.

Strictly, Royal Big Night was about the price it should have been. The last couple of tries do look a bit stronger.

Party Planner last as the tissue suggested. Missed the break which was highlighted beforehand. It'll probably sluice home somewhere else.
 
There is a guy trying to make an tissue out of his ratings and also has a decent excel sheet with all his speed ratings, might want to check out his site
Also this site similar approach again an interesting enough site

both have been free to use since I’ve been looking at them
 

AustinDillon75

Yearling
Corrected an anomaly in my RPR ratings. I was rewarding inconsistent performance by inflating poor averages rather than making deductions and already this feels a bit more accurate - much closer to HRB now.

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AustinDillon75

Yearling
Sorry - these calculations are all over the place. I've not properly weighed the HRB/RPR ratings for the final tissue so its threw the numbers out. Mr Kiki won the 1410 at Yarmouth and if the my odds are 4.17 and the HRB 35.87 there's no way it should be 25/1. It should have been around 15/2.1594821620512.png
 

AustinDillon75

Yearling
1594849451851.png
Just not had time today so a few after the event but this was an interesting one - Red Pike came in at 33s, was 6/1 on this tissue.

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The Dancing Poet wins. Be Perfect ran well to get 3rd.
I'll probably put the various odds into a fractional form now going forward apart from the 100% book which would be a bit closer I think to the Betfair SPs.
 

AustinDillon75

Yearling
Taking a bit of shape. The fractional odds and market odds side by side, the 100% book maintained in decimal form.
The +/- is the discrepancy between my tissue and the market's feelings on its chances. So I have Be Perfect as having an 8% better chance than the market suggests.

I don't really see the RPR/HRB columns add anything for now so they are scrapped, and I've added a column for where the horse finished when the result is known. I am still making use of O Outlander's tissue sheet as well, with some adjustments, and in some ways its quite good to combine the opinions provided by RPR and HRB to try and get some assessment of price.

The Tissue/Market percentages are the relationship of the markets to final outcome. My tissue had an 82% correlation so could be said to have been more accurate than the market at 64.8% on this occasion. I suspect if you can consistently get better correlation to the positions than the final market, you will generally be finding some horses at a wrong price with a good chance.

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This is still open to an awful lot of tweaks. We aren't factoring in the going, preferred track and distance, and the RPR calculation is not giving greater weight to the more recent performances, which it could do going forward.
 

Attachments

AustinDillon75

Yearling
Some attempts at the handicaps at Hamilton today. These will be the only races today with work commitments etc. Even as I've been doing them I've spotted anomalies with my formulas so have been adjusting them meaning the 16:00 is not quite based on the same calcs as the 13:00.

What I'm noticing is that the tissue isn't doing is getting too close to some of the shorter priced horses.

The main point of interest is those which are red or green '+/-' in the last column. This is an indication that the market is seeing something not obvious within the ratings themselves. So for instance in the 13:00 Somewhere Secret may well be short on the basis of 'inside info', which could actually inform a bet itself. In other words I'm not really of the view that you always want value from the tissue - there could be hidden information somewhere that might make it a reasonably good bet, provided you can get the price early enough. As both market leaders are a fair bit under their suggested tissue price you could either consider putting them in a reverse 1-2, or simply swerve the race altogether if you don't really have the confidence to seperate them.

The current odds are only significant to the calculation in so far that if the HRB calculation correlates better than RPR to odds on offer, and vice versa, greater weight will be given in the tissue to one calculation or the other.

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Watching brief and probably, on balance, one to leave alone.
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You could go with Ey Up Its Mick with reasonable confidence here, but maybe a small save on Final Frontier as well.
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This one could see you choosing to lay Meraas. Admiralty looks a decent price and two others may well shape better than their previous ratings imply.

Typo below the next is the 1430
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You are looking to see why Imperial Focus is 14/1. Dropping in trip if nothing else. Probably one to leave.
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Amber Storm looks short enough, its whether you fancy taking 6/4 in a 10 runner race, when your own work tells you its 3/1, maybe worth a try with the two green horses here each way. Must be a chance of one of them running into a place at least.

1594883650014.png
This goes completely the other way to most, instead of a bigger price on the favourite the tissue makes Sir Havelock odds on. With a 30% better chance than the market suggests it seems irresistible with others clearly having a bit to find on the ratings.

When we get the results there will be some learning and reflection. I don't think it helps just to post tissues and have no analysis of them. If we find a load of the red horses are working at the best prices we can get, then we've achieved something.
 

AustinDillon75

Yearling
Weeeeeeeeeeellllllllllllll.....a bit tragic. But these things don't work off the back of just a handful of tries, it takes time and learning.
No red or green winners in there and the first four races producing winners who went in lower than their actual tissue price.
Will try a few more tomorrow and see if any other patterns start to emerge because its difficult to know what to make of some of those outcomes.
 

AustinDillon75

Yearling
With a bit of free time I've run a couple of further ones. With knowing the results I can put the positions in and the columns to the extreme right are the correlation between the positions and the relative odds. In this first example the tissue has, overall, slightly outperformed the market. A value winner and Indian Raj flops.

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An 18 runner handicap.
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Quite nice getting the first two below.
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1594936947545.png

I'm repeatedly tweaking the figures and formulas to try and get consistently closer to the true market prices. 3 of the 4 races here are identifying the winners, 1 at value and 2 not, I'd still hope that generally those highlighted red and greed should be more closely looked at.
 

Graeme

Dam
Hi AustinDillon75 AustinDillon75

Forgive the intrusion and I would say up front that whenever I have tried to create a tissue I have failed so I tend to leave that to others so please feel free to take what I am about to say with a pinch of salt - but I am curious as to why you would want to tweak your tissue to be nearer the market odds as replicating the market is the very opposite of what tissue prices are for as I understand it - they should be an indication of the price/probability of winning that the horse has when applying your criterion so where you have a horse priced shorter than the market it has value and considered for a bet?

All the best
 

AustinDillon75

Yearling
Graeme Graeme
Thanks and I appreciate your thoughts. I've looked back through the thread to see if there's actually been a real aim from the start, and essentially its just been to try and get a realistic tissue for handicap races. If I am somewhere close to what the actual market thinks, I'm at peace with that, because it suggests I am likely to be factoring in what is really needed to get an accurate price. From there, its then finding the odd one that stands out like a sore thumb, either way, and investigating further to see if something might be amiss.

At present, I'm using the last 6 RPR figures and my own HRB ratings, which are fed into an adjusted version of @Outlanders tissue sheet. I then look at the current market, and if the RPR figures place the tissue a bit closer, it simply means that tissue created with RPRs will have with more confidence than the HRB one, and vice versa. The true market does not have anything to do with the final tissue price whatsoever, at least in terms of using it as an inherent part of the calculations.

I've seen tissues elsewhere and it can be said for my own, if my price is suggesting a 15% greater chance than the market, its possibly a load of flannel, because it could be completely changing distance, it could be on an unsuitable track, or is just weighted out of it. There will be a reason that isn't obvious from the ratings.

Same as if the chance is 15% less - if its say, 11/10 and I've made it 9/4, there'll be a reason for the difference somewhere, and it might smart money from those in the know, or the horse could just be on an upward curve that previous figures are not taking into account. None of this is factored in at present but who knows, we may get there in time.

The hope is where both RPR and HRB (mine is called HRB+Speed) is suggesting a short price and the market doesn't fancy it, or vice versa. What we currently have is just a starter for 10 at best but I think its much better now than when we first started, not least as I've fished out some hooky calculations, and I don't really want to give up easily on it because there is some good RPR data available to me going back 11 years to inform the books being created.

I looked at O Outlander's link to the other site, and far be it for me to criticise the other efforts, but he had three winners in two days at big prices, and puts in big letters "X won at 43 BSP, Y won at 29 BSP". What you don't see is how many other overpriced horses would have needed backing in order to avoid a massive loss being incurred. What about the 80 or 90 overpriced horses he's offered that don't win? This is partly why I'm cautious over blanket bombing anything over and above my odds because they are easy enough to find but possibly, not so easy to win with.

That said, I will now look at the tissues presented thus far and see if the over-priced horses might have profited to SP and to BSP.

I hope you'll keep looking in, its about just finding a spare hour here and there to try and cobble some together. I will try some for Haydock and Leicester now I'm done with work for the day. 👍
 

AustinDillon75

Yearling
Looking back to the best of my calcs backing the non-value horses produces a total 37pt loss, but the "value horses" have delivered a 7pt profit and that is from about 120 odd horses. They do include 33/1 and 28/1 winners so in reality its difficult to expect over a larger sample that's going to continue. Still, we'll keep putting some sheets out there and something somewhere may click. I'll start keeping a proper score of them now but its probably going to be based on prices available at a point in time, or the SP if I've no choice but to do the calculation post race.
 

AustinDillon75

Yearling
Interesting. Four greens and two reds. Taking Mochalov, looking at the HRB profiler its 2/11 over this trip (0/12 other trips), both its wins in this class, but its only had 3 turf runs amounting to little. Maybe an EW try with 4 places, as it does seem to place reasonably consistently and has run fairly reasonably, when you consider he is 8lb lower than his AW mark.

1595001182140.png
 

AustinDillon75

Yearling
1595002260340.png
The market has this as a wide open affair, to say the least. I've got a different spread altogether. Different conditions all together, but Treacherous managed an AW RPR of 92 last time out, and is off an OR of 78. The question is whether that RPR in different conditions slightly flatters him at my prices - maybe it does. Quite like the idea of putting the top 4 into a combined exotic of some sort but we'll probably now see the red horses coming sweeping home instead.
 

AustinDillon75

Yearling
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Quite encouraging to see its picked the winner again - its after the race I know - I'm trying to keep up and am feeling tired after a long run this afternoon...
 
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