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Tissue prices

AustinDillon75

Yearling
1595005050039.png
My lot for tonight. Will look at some performance figures later. If fellow members think there's anything particular to measure, but I was going to post
Value pts
Non-value points
Top 3 pts
Top 3 value points (after the 1755, that's pulled in 17pts from 12 selections)
Top 3 non value points
Green points
Red points
 
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View attachment 86313
My lot for tonight. Will look at some performance figures later. If fellow members think there's anything particular to measure, but I was going to post
Value pts
Non-value points
Top 3 pts
Top 3 value points (after the 1755, that's pulled in 17pts from 12 selections)
Top 3 non value points
Green points
Red points
I think quite impressive overall, bit more testing, early day but looks good
 

AustinDillon75

Yearling
1595012293318.png
The above is the earlier tissue made for Haydock which I did not have time to get online. The totals for today are these:

Value pts (everything +0%) +0.33 pts
Non-value points (everything -0%) -34.37 pts
Top 3 pts +14.08 pts
Top 3 value points (in top 3 +0%) +20.33 pts
Top 3 non value points (in top 3 - 0%) -6.25 pts
Green points (% marked green) +15.33 pts
Red points (% marked red) -6.12 pts

Please note this is just based on the posted odds in the tissues, not necessarily SPs and no rule 4s so if not quite accurate sorry about that but we'll try a couple more tomorrow and see what outcome results. I will try and automate the counting of these as I've had to do it a little bit by hand. No hiding the unsuccessful ones here. Today would have worked pretty well if just going for Greens as there were 7 of those in total.
 
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AustinDillon75

Yearling
Value pts (everything +0%) -23.25 pts -22.92 pts
Non-value points (everything -0%) -25.00 pts -59.37 pts
Top 3 pts -0.75 pts +13.33 pts
Top 3 value points (in top 3 +0%) +2.00 pts +22.33 pts
Top 3 non value points (in top 3 - 0%) -2.75 pts -9.00 pts
Green points (% marked green) 3.00pts +18.33 pts
Red points (% marked red) -10.25 pts -16.37 pts

After two days of counting. There were 25 greens today and 22 in the top 3 showing value and each of those achieving between 9-15% ROI respectively, again I stress based on prices available when tissues were issued (or SPs if in the case a one or two races, it had already been run). The totals are less important to me than large pluses or large minuses. Molly Mai (Green Points) counts here at 9s and returned 6s but I could also argue that Qaysar (Green points, Top 3 pts, Top 3 value pts) returned 12s when priced here at 10s so these things do even out to a certain degree.

After significant testing, if non-value points are getting quickly into the 1000s and the ROI is in a substantial minus, it might get to the stage where we can throw out a fair number of horses which are shorter than the prices we identify.

No kidding myself. This won't work on the back of 2 days testing. It needs hundreds, thousands or races, and in all honesty, time is an issue with getting to the machine to do it. I'll try and maybe do 3 or 4 races later today - just handicaps, at least for now.
 

AustinDillon75

Yearling
We've said Handicaps only, but I couldn't resist a quick go at the Super Sprint today. We won't count this for figures but how about these prices for a 25 runner cavalry charge?

1595144959152.png
 

AustinDillon75

Yearling
First few handicap races today.

First race RP comment on Harry's Bar (3/1 my book 16s generally)
"Useful on AW; not comparable form on turf yet but he's better now than when last on grass"

1595152445668.png
 
AustinDillon75 AustinDillon75
Trying to understand this thread leads me to ask for example how did you arrive at a tissue price of 66/1 for SINJAARI 2.30 york, saturday ?
You will occasionally get massive prices on live horses some that win if you are creating tissue from ratings, you managed to find the worst example in all the tissues he has put up, I think the thread and the approach is very promising albeit early days , the positive correlation between profit for greens and losses for reds is all that matters. At the moment it’s just testing out if he can highlight value from building his own tissue, this is the holy grail of betting, if you can make tissues more accurate than the market most of the time, no other approach will ever be more useful in betting.
Its incredibly difficult to achieve and I can see a lot promise in the limited evidence so far.
 

tacker

Gelding
You will occasionally get massive prices on live horses some that win if you are creating tissue from ratings, you managed to find the worst example in all the tissues he has put up, I think the thread and the approach is very promising albeit early days , the positive correlation between profit for greens and losses for reds is all that matters. At the moment it’s just testing out if he can highlight value from building his own tissue, this is the holy grail of betting, if you can make tissues more accurate than the market most of the time, no other approach will ever be more useful in betting.
Its incredibly difficult to achieve and I can see a lot promise in the limited evidence so far.
O Outlander
Having given it a little thought and not had anything from AustinDillon75 AustinDillon75 I came to the conclusion it might simply be a mistake and the tissue was 16/1. Also worth me mentioning that i wasn't just looking for the "worst" example here just that i was particularly interested in this race and this horse. It is the case that if the greens profit over the reds then everything will be hunky dory but as you say very early days.
 
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AustinDillon75

Yearling
T tacker The answer to the question is exactly the same as it would have been had your question been "how was Qaysar 9/4 in your tissue but came home at 12s (10s SP)?"

Its what the combined ratings are telling me should be the price, nothing more, nothing less. See how my own custom HRB rating sorted the horses out in the first instance. As you can see, Sinjaari is 20th out of the 22 here. Additionally on RPRs he ran a 69 last time out in the Rowley Cup, a crap performance, and when the numbers are crunched taking account of RPRs and the HRB ordering, that's the reason why he's 66/1. He was never 16/1 by any calculation.

1595164056065.png

So when the market says he's 14/1, what's behind that? Well I've seen he was gelded after his Rowley Cup run, but do I need to spend a whole heap of time delving into all that, do I just take the view the market is about right and any reds or greens that result, just take them out and adjust the rest of the field, or do I just adjust his likely price and risk throwing everything else all the further out. I could also just say any horse who is gelded is 5% underestimated automatically by the numbers, but that will also knacker up a lot of other calculations and could inflate them unnecessarily. If 100 horses are gelded and I'm wrong every time we'll end up finding something to work with.

As I've said at the beginning of the thread, and in other posts since, we are just testing things right now and no real money is going into it (and may never actually do, because I am not that bothered about betting, the numbers are what offer me the fun and if I did it would be a quid here and there if not at the track). I don't need to throw the baby out with the bathwater over one race (itself a 22 runner handicap where, in fairness, the top in the tissue did actually come third), and as Outlander points to, we might suddenly hit a barrage of red horses winning, and the greens just not lifting a hoof - because we got it wrong. We've just had a <20% red winning easily on the first tissue today.

Once we know where we are getting it wrong, and why, maybe that's the time to start making some adjustments along the lines of the above. It'll get some wrong, it'll get some right and in other cases, it will be a complete mess.

It may well be that the ratings could throw out his Sinjarri's Newmarket run 69, but as you'll appreciate I could also throw out a 69 by something else and a real outsider then suddenly has a chance far less realistic than my price might suggest. We will look at whether adjusting the ratings a bit could accommodate that and I have ideas on how to do significantly better with HRB ratings through the various available tools but that's another thread, possibly.

I'm hoping this forum isn't one of those that expects posters just to be sitting about to reply immediately. It would have been nice to have the opportunity to answer; after all, I've waited pretty patiently for others to comment on this thread as its progressed. O Outlander has of course given a large part of the answer.

More Handicaps to follow shortly.
 

tacker

Gelding
AustinDillon75 AustinDillon75
I thought my question was fairly basic and was happy for you to answer in your own time, no problem there and you've now explained it's based on ratings found through hrb (hope thats correct) so let me wish you well with the trial.
 

AustinDillon75

Yearling
T tacker it was a bit frustrating that you fired in on the worst example all the same after quite a number of tissues and in some respects, a profitable series of outcomes. It was also the "he hasn't responded" tone of the second one but I take your latter on board - thank you.

Its all due to go horribly wrong but if we don't ever get anything wrong we won't get anything right either.
 

tacker

Gelding
T tacker it was a bit frustrating that you fired in on the worst example all the same after quite a number of tissues and in some respects, a profitable series of outcomes. It was also the "he hasn't responded" tone of the second one but I take your latter on board - thank you.

Its all due to go horribly wrong but if we don't ever get anything wrong we won't get anything right either.
I was interested because having spoke yesterday about haggas being in form at the moment and having a saver on sinjaari took an interest in the race, nothing to do with choosing the "worst" example and my saying to O Outlander that you hadn't yet answered was a statement of fact, not a criticism.
In trying to move on i will predict you will get plenty of interest and support from members of this forum over the next few weeks but ratings go over my head so best to leave you to it, good luck.
 

AustinDillon75

Yearling
We've just had the first two home in the 16:00 Newbury, £83.45 CSF, but of course over time we could pick 300 straight forecasts in a row without winning. True Destiny was third and in the red according to my market.

Also a bit cheeky but some may have noted that yesterday's 12:45 at York gave out the Trifecta of £228.40.

Exciting to think about, if nothing else.

1595172413096.png
1595172354106.png
 

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AustinDillon75

Yearling
Results today with running total in bold.

Value pts (everything +0%) -18.00 pts (ROI -21.2%) -35.17 pts (ROI -19.5%)
Non-value points (everything -0%) -12.25 pts (ROI -23.1%) -59.37 pts (ROI -63.9%)

Top 3 pts 18.75 pts (ROI 60.5%) +32.08 pts (ROI 46.5%)
Top 3 value points (in top 3 +0%) +15.00 pts (ROI 75%) +37.33 pts (ROI 88.9%)
Top 3 non value points (in top 3 - 0%) 3.75 pts (ROI 34.1%) -5.25 pts (ROI -19.4%)

Green points (% marked green) -7.00pts (ROI -38.9%) +11.33 pts (ROI 26.3%)
Red points (% marked red) -12.25 pts -29.92 pts (ROI -60.9%)

Some decent top rated winners there. Just to mention I call the Top 3 points for ease, its based on the number or horses that would pay out each way. For example, in the 16:30 Newbury Dubious Affair was a Top 3 horse but as only winner and runner up pay out I've disregarded it for the purpose of counting Top 3 horses. It just counts as a winning non-value horse only.

To note on the fun tissue we had the top rated with Happy Romance and an honourable run from Soldierpoy, who came third at 22/1 and was a value top 3 horse. We will sooner or later get a levelling off and if normal service prevails its probable we can expect some poorer performances shortly. But we'll keep boxing on while the going is good.
 
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