Graeme
Thanks and I appreciate your thoughts. I've looked back through the thread to see if there's actually been a real aim from the start, and essentially its just been to try and get a realistic tissue for handicap races. If I am somewhere close to what the actual market thinks, I'm at peace with that, because it suggests I am likely to be factoring in what is really needed to get an accurate price. From there, its then finding the odd one that stands out like a sore thumb, either way, and investigating further to see if something might be amiss.
At present, I'm using the last 6 RPR figures and my own HRB ratings, which are fed into an adjusted version of @Outlanders tissue sheet. I then look at the current market, and if the RPR figures place the tissue a bit closer, it simply means that tissue created with RPRs will have with more confidence than the HRB one, and vice versa. The true market does not have anything to do with the final tissue price whatsoever, at least in terms of using it as an inherent part of the calculations.
I've seen tissues elsewhere and it can be said for my own, if my price is suggesting a 15% greater chance than the market, its possibly a load of flannel, because it could be completely changing distance, it could be on an unsuitable track, or is just weighted out of it. There will be a reason that isn't obvious from the ratings.
Same as if the chance is 15% less - if its say, 11/10 and I've made it 9/4, there'll be a reason for the difference somewhere, and it might smart money from those in the know, or the horse could just be on an upward curve that previous figures are not taking into account. None of this is factored in at present but who knows, we may get there in time.
The hope is where both RPR and HRB (mine is called HRB+Speed) is suggesting a short price and the market doesn't fancy it, or vice versa. What we currently have is just a starter for 10 at best but I think its much better now than when we first started, not least as I've fished out some hooky calculations, and I don't really want to give up easily on it because there is some good RPR data available to me going back 11 years to inform the books being created.
I looked at
O
Outlander's link to the other site, and far be it for me to criticise the other efforts, but he had three winners in two days at big prices, and puts in big letters "X won at 43 BSP, Y won at 29 BSP". What you don't see is how many other overpriced horses would have needed backing in order to avoid a massive loss being incurred. What about the 80 or 90 overpriced horses he's offered that don't win? This is partly why I'm cautious over blanket bombing anything over and above my odds because they are easy enough to find but possibly, not so easy to win with.
That said, I will now look at the tissues presented thus far and see if the over-priced horses might have profited to SP and to BSP.
I hope you'll keep looking in, its about just finding a spare hour here and there to try and cobble some together. I will try some for Haydock and Leicester now I'm done with work for the day.