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Tissue prices

AustinDillon75

Yearling
Probably threads everywhere discussing this my first post since I don't know when, but after years of trying speed ratings, handicap ratings, pace etc, it dawns that I'm probably better trying to forecast prices and seeing where it goes from there. So I've done a spreadsheet which has given me a formula for calculating prices, based around 11 years of flat/AW Racing Post RPRs.

In essence, I put in an RPR of my own for how they might run today and when all in place, it calculates a price for me. The general calculation is I think it to be 6 RPR pts ahead of the average for a 10 horse race, it would be around 9/2. If its bang on the average, it'd be 9/1.

The table below was for the 1200 at Bath and my odds are on the left, with the morning odds on the right. I've also put a HRB rating to the right of that and essentially its to try and corroborate some of my thinking, if I see a big price one near the top and HRB says the same it has to be worth a closer look. This race was actually won by Indian Sounds, shorter than my tissue price and top HRB rated.

Zulu Zander was 9th ofthe 10 on my rating but top tissue price - he ran second as it turns out at 18/1. I might have done a small ew but its RPR for me was inflated by its 5th and 6th last runs respectively so going forward I might have assigned it a higher price than what is effectively 9/2 below.

1200 BATHHRBFULL
Zulu Zander
5.71​
10​
9​
Able Kane
6.60​
15​
6​
Autumn Trail
6.66​
7​
3​
Indian Sounds
6.81​
3.25​
1​
Giovanni Tiepolo
8.71​
8​
4​
Chasanda
9.26​
34​
7​
Bezzas Lad
10.13​
12​
8​
Bluebell Time
10.44​
12​
5​
Spurofthemoment
10.67​
7​
2​
Lady Fanditha
15.37​
8​
4​

The first four in my tissue were all the same the first four home so its an interesting start. I might never get the first four again!
Here's the one for the 1305

1305 BATHHRBFULL
A Go Go
5.45​
21​
5​
Cappananty Con
5.70​
3.5​
1​
Gherkin
7.08​
4.5​
4​
Vincenzo Coccotti
7.14​
15​
2​
Port Noir
7.61​
13​
9​
Kingmans Spirit
8.24​
8.5​
6​
Leo Minor
10.01​
6.5​
3​
Peggotty
13.52​
26​
10​
Tomahawk Ridge
18.59​
21​
11​
Sugar Plum Fairy
19.47​
34​
8​
Lethal Blast
22.75​
15​
7​
Numinous
41.40​
15​
12​

This isn't about winners its about having some sort of price and then working backwards/forwards from there. Still in infancy this. Comments and questions welcomed.
 

mick

Sire
AustinDillon75 AustinDillon75 I like to see anyone attempting to create there own tissue so best of for yours. The professional odds compilers do a difficult job well enough but early doors its all down to opinion and theirs can be wrong. Personally i am not interested in value wherever it is identified but only when it relates to a horse i already think will or could win and maybe interested in backing. When one is found i create a minimum value price only for that horse as opposed to attempting a whole race tissue.
 

AustinDillon75

Yearling
Tissue for 1335 below so as to actually add one before a race.

Should have said, I'm looking primarily at handicaps where the form is generally more widely known. Again its all over the place compared to HRB Full which is my own customised rating but that's not a problem for now, the task is then to look for reasons why a horse is priced so differently and once the reasons become clearer, work on a race from that point.

Glenamoy Lad comes out top but his best RPRs have been on all weather. I see he has a tongue tie and visor on today so perhaps he'll out run his odds. Hopefully this table is a bit better - my decimal odds on the left and current odds to the right with the HRB Full ranking in the final column.

1594729318765.png
 

Jackform

Colt
AustinDillon75 AustinDillon75, I have been compiling my own tissue for thirty years or more.

Could I just comment that if your first column is the percentage chance of a runner then in total they do not add up to a tissue of 1 or 100%. The figure is actually 84.92.

I had to work with the Daily Mail tissue and deduct their theoretical overround, which was 118.8. The final figures as per your list to three decimal points (99.458% because of this) were:

5.612
24.069
6.475
5.612
9.531
21.044
9.531
6.475
12.029
 
Last edited:

AustinDillon75

Yearling
AustinDillon75 AustinDillon75, I have been compiling my own tissue for thirty years or more.

Could I just comment that if your first column is the percentage chance of a runner then in total they do not add up to a tissue of 1 or 100%. The figure is actually 84.92.

(back shortly with more data)
Thanks - I should also have said the sheet builds in an over-round of 2% per runner, so as this is a 9 runner race it assumes an over-round of 118%. Too many things to explain.

1594731280655.png

It could all just as easily be converted to a 100% book and I can add another column in but I tend to think converting to somewhere near a bookmakers price is giving me a better vision of what odds should be, but if you've been doing it for 30 years I'll certainly welcome a different perspective.

1594731462898.png
 

AustinDillon75

Yearling
I create one for the races I rate - Flat book no over round

View attachment 86123
That tissue makes for a wide open race, everything priced between 7/2 and a shade over 8/1, in theory you'd possibly consider backing anything over 9/1, or at least examining it more closely?

I'm looking to get a tissue that reasonable resembles widely available odds, then trying to work out reasons why something might be much shorter or longer, then using HRB ratings.

So if its 40/1, but 4/1 on my tissue and HRB also rates it highly, it may figure there's something in it. To be honest, in the three races so far its debatable as to whether the tissues would really have highlighted anything really worth backing. But the tissues are fun and easy to compile, its about developing them as time progresses.
 
That tissue makes for a wide open race, everything priced between 7/2 and a shade over 8/1, in theory you'd possibly consider backing anything over 9/1, or at least examining it more closely?

I'm looking to get a tissue that reasonable resembles widely available odds, then trying to work out reasons why something might be much shorter or longer, then using HRB ratings.

So if its 40/1, but 4/1 on my tissue and HRB also rates it highly, it may figure there's something in it. To be honest, in the three races so far its debatable as to whether the tissues would really have highlighted anything really worth backing. But the tissues are fun and easy to compile, its about developing them as time progresses.
years ago i made a few spreadsheets that converted various rating sets into odds then I set up an automated excel betting sheet to bet all horses with 25% or more value betdaq compared to the sheet, I trialled it for about 30 days and in those 30 days the results were fantastic I think maybe only 3 or 4 losing days that were mostly marginal , then I went live and switched it all on , you guessed it I did my absolute nads for 7 days straight until I couldn’t cope with it anymore.
I might still have the sheet , will try and dig it out.
 

AustinDillon75

Yearling
years ago i made a few spreadsheets that converted various rating sets into odds then I set up an automated excel betting sheet to bet all horses with 25% or more value betdaq compared to the sheet, I trialled it for about 30 days and in those 30 days the results were fantastic I think maybe only 3 or 4 losing days that were mostly marginal , then I went live and switched it all on , you guessed it I did my absolute nads for 7 days straight until I couldn’t cope with it anymore.
I might still have the sheet , will try and dig it out.
Been there, almost everything I've done over the years either starts well and fails in the end, or just fails altogether and you don't then bother persisting never finding out if it would have turned out well.

Will be interested in your sheet.
 

markfinn

Sire
That tissue makes for a wide open race, everything priced between 7/2 and a shade over 8/1, in theory you'd possibly consider backing anything over 9/1, or at least examining it more closely?

I'm looking to get a tissue that reasonable resembles widely available odds, then trying to work out reasons why something might be much shorter or longer, then using HRB ratings.

So if its 40/1, but 4/1 on my tissue and HRB also rates it highly, it may figure there's something in it. To be honest, in the three races so far its debatable as to whether the tissues would really have highlighted anything really worth backing. But the tissues are fun and easy to compile, its about developing them as time progresses.
I am only backing what I consider my my best 2 horses so looking for a profit from the 2 if either should win - we have to be realistic every horse in the race should have some chance - using two horses II would my horses at any price over 11/4 - only backing one which is rare 9/4 - betfair 2%
 

AustinDillon75

Yearling
1594742566265.png
Now with a 100% book added - with 11 runners a 122% over-round built in. I could just as easily take the over-round from the available odds but it just seems simpler to have 100% plus 2% for each runner.

Market seems to say Poets Magic will reverse the placings from LTO with The Big House, 3lb better off compared to last time.
The tissue suggests a couple of others possibly under rated but not really any correlation here between my odds and the HRB ratings so really watching and seeing if any patterns emerge after races are run.
 

AustinDillon75

Yearling
So that's four races today and if I'd put 1pt on everything where real odds greater than the tissue I'd be 23pts up but that last race had a 28/1 winner (returned 25s). No way in the world would that be how I'd play though. If you had that winner fair play.
 
AustinDillon75 AustinDillon75
This is the sheet I made to convert a rating set in HRB into tissue prices for automated betting.
Like I said earlier I lost my nuts after an amazing run when paper trading.
If you have a rating set in HRB or you can just use one of the in house sets like HRB Standard.
HRB - Daily Tools>One Day Rating>Download as XLS/CSV
In Drop Down Menus - Choose Ratings Settings - Make your choice of which rating set you require
-Choose Columns Shown - select Standard
Download
copy all cells in downloaded sheet and paste into B5 of my HRB ratings to odds sheet
Cell AP1 is important you might need to play around with this to get the range of the odds correct
My rating on the sheet as an example have quite a wide range so I put 0.9925 in cell AP1
if you were using say HRB Standard ratings set then the range is much tighter so would have to change AP1 to about 0.95 i'm not sure trial and error until the odds look right.
Obviously maiden races and such wont really work well because of newcomers etc
If you delete a row with a non-runner it automatically recalculates.
It sounds like you already have something similar but have a play around with it see if you find it helpful in any way.
 

Attachments

AustinDillon75

Yearling
Another one 18:35 Ripon. Probably barrel scraping stuff here but Fair Warning is 2nd HRB and 3rd tissue. Last two runs over 1m2f at Chelmsford didn't suit but now dropped in trip and may fare better on the turf. If nothing else some order between my odds and the bottom end of the market.

1594747586298.png
 

AustinDillon75

Yearling
AustinDillon75 AustinDillon75
This is the sheet I made to convert a rating set in HRB into tissue prices for automated betting.
Like I said earlier I lost my nuts after an amazing run when paper trading.
If you have a rating set in HRB or you can just use one of the in house sets like HRB Standard.
HRB - Daily Tools>One Day Rating>Download as XLS/CSV
In Drop Down Menus - Choose Ratings Settings - Make your choice of which rating set you require
-Choose Columns Shown - select Standard
Download
copy all cells in downloaded sheet and paste into B5 of my HRB ratings to odds sheet
Cell AP1 is important you might need to play around with this to get the range of the odds correct
My rating on the sheet as an example have quite a wide range so I put 0.9925 in cell AP1
if you were using say HRB Standard ratings set then the range is much tighter so would have to change AP1 to about 0.95 i'm not sure trial and error until the odds look right.
Obviously maiden races and such wont really work well because of newcomers etc
If you delete a row with a non-runner it automatically recalculates.
It sounds like you already have something similar but have a play around with it see if you find it helpful in any way.
O Outlander Cheers I will definitely have a good look at that. As you mention using maiden races I'm also just using handicap races for now but my sheet can function with little form too its just harder with less form to work off.
 

AustinDillon75

Yearling
Later at Ripon. I've got the first three very tight and would be opposing Party Planner on this tissue. Its 9/4 and this seems to be on the basis of some promise that you just wouldn't see reflected in an RPR. Its been noted in all three starts to be slowly away/dwelt.

1594748056061.png

I don't know if its better to do 3 or 4 in a single post or just one per post, wouldn't want to upset the general etiquette on the forum by just repeated posting.
 

AustinDillon75

Yearling
O Outlander thanks again, I tried your spreadsheet using my own HRB+Speed figures and for the 8:15 I adjusted the figure to 0.99 and got this, which does the same suggesting a three horse race and putting Party Planner very much on the outside of things (wait as it hoses up now, by a furlong).

1594748955413.png

The issue with the sheet is exactly as you said earlier, where there's little or no form and the leveller fails to compensate. You could maybe try downloading 750 races etc then maybe get a formula to suggest an adjusted figure, maybe based on trainer/jockey/stallion rating alone, adding a further column, and though a bit artificial on one hand, it might just eliminate a couple where the figures are suggesting a price in the several thousands to one.

I'd be happy to look at a possible adjustment and post it on here when time allows. What you've produced is probably a better route than me just putting a HRB rank at the end, and I can always adapt it for the over-round as well so going forward I think I'll put a couple of tissues on and see how they compare. All time dependent, of course.

Good to see a few people encouraging a new poster and in my case, a very nervous one (at least for now). I've been lurking for a little while and have just been waiting for the opportunity to share something I thought might be worthwhile.
 

AustinDillon75

Yearling
I've now had a little further play and the columns are these
1 is the tissue price which has combined the RPR and HRB odds, on this occasion it gives greater weight to the HRB calculation as it more closely reflects the generally available odds
2 is the 100% book for 1
3 is the RPR odds
4 is the HRB odds
5 is the current odds available.

1594752923010.png
What this does is to a degree uses the market as it stands as well, but it still allows for us to see how our own prices/odds compare to the real market. The tissue price created seems to correlate reasonably well to the odds now.
 
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