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Tissue prices

AustinDillon75

Yearling
These again obviously after the event but without labouring it, its about the time. All prices were this morning's market prices. We had Forge Valley Lad returned at 11s but was 40s on this morning's market. Running totals to follow.

1595276093267.png
 

AustinDillon75

Yearling
Results today with running total in bold.

Value pts (everything +0%) +5.75 pts (ROI 6.1%) -29.42 pts (ROI -10.7%)
Non-value points (everything -0%) -15.25 pts (ROI -19.3%) -74.62 pts (ROI -39.1%)

Top 3 pts 0 pts (ROI 0.0%) +32.08 pts (ROI 27.0%)
Top 3 value points (in top 3 +0%) -2.25 pts (ROI -6.3%) +35.08 pts (ROI 45.0%)
Top 3 non value points (in top 3 - 0%) +2.25 pts (ROI 16.1%) -3.00 pts (ROI -7.3%)

Green points (% marked green) -9.75 pts (ROI -37.5%) +1.58 pts (ROI 2.3%)
Red points (% marked red) -7.00 pts -36.92 pts (ROI -53.5%)

A couple of things to note. I did not have any RPR or meaningful HRB figure for Belgoprince in the 18:15 at Ballinrobe, so just put a figure in to match his 16/1 market price. Usually in handicaps there is form to go off. As mentioned I am looking at my own leveller for HRB figures, and am working on trying to convert these to RPR figures to help with the tissue. However that will probably end up being a seperate attempt to this - for now I'm continuing this one, subject to time. I don't want to overly change and refine it either otherwise it won't help with keeping figures such as those above - if there are radical changes I'll start counting again.

I also deduct 35pts from any RPR figure earned over hurdles, as can be the case with Irish racing a few dual purpose - so I wouldn't say Shumaker (20:15 Ballinrobe) is in any way flattered by my suggested price and he did go on to win that race as well.

We got the first three home in the 19:45 Ballinrobe as well. A nice tricast and trifecta there.

1595276767293.png
It was quite clearly a tissue posted after the event, but the ones posted prior were more profitable than some of the later ones, so you'll just have to take my word on this. Its of zerointerest to me to try and manipulate tissues to get the best results - its a waste of my time and everyone elses.

Only two flat meetings tomorrow so will try and just do them in the morning.
 

AustinDillon75

Yearling
Value pts (everything +0%) +15.50 pts (ROI 22.1%) -13.92 pts (ROI -4.0%)
Non-value points (everything -0%) -20.83 pts (ROI -33.1%) -95.45 pts (ROI -37.6%)

Top 3 pts 1.92 pts (ROI 5.1%) +34.00 pts (ROI 21.7%)
Top 3 value points (in top 3 +0%) -0.50 pts (ROI -1.8%) +34.58 pts (ROI 32.6%)
Top 3 non value points (in top 3 -0%) +2.42 pts (ROI 24.2%) -0.58 pts (ROI -1.1%)

Green points (% marked green) -8.50 pts (ROI -47.2%) -6.92 pts (ROI -8.0%)
Red points (% marked red) -3.33 pts -40.25 pts (ROI -43.8%)

I'm actually thinking of parking this for the time being, I'm working on some slightly different calculations and finding a way of better automating as the data input needed is a little bit tedious, to be honest. All the same that's not a bad return on top 3s, with 157 bets yielding 34.58 pts.
 

dave58

Administrator
Hi AustinDillon75 AustinDillon75, I have to admit that I haven't followed this thread religiously, so apologies if I have missed something obvious, but depending on your criteria is it worth thinking whether it might be more relevant to certain types of races, then looking back at previous results?
Having said that your returns so far are pretty impressive, so well done and thanks for sharing.
 

AustinDillon75

Yearling
dave58 dave58 its a really good point. The tissues are all handicap races and I just about managed one for every handicap over the last three days. As I've mentioned the reason for using handicaps is simply because generally there is much more form to go from. I am interrogating HRB at the minute to see if I can improve on Chris's leveller figures, the issue is when the horse hasn't had a run you find its bottom rated with no leveller, whereas we could estimate a likely figure from the jockey/trainer/stallion/today figures.

We could look at whether this works better with say 9 or fewer runners, for example, whether all weather handicaps are a bit easier, and bin off the apprentice handicaps (the one in Ballinrobe the other day gave us a 50/1 winner). I wonder how else we could categorise them. Maybe we could take the view that higher level handicaps are so well bet that the market is impossible to beat. But I still want to create something that will give a good acount with those bigger races, thinking of the John Smith's the other day for example. It could also be that the underlying ratings might give consideration to a device lowering the tissue price by a certain degree if there's evidence that the horse in question is improving in its last two races, and looks likely to continue on that curve. We'd have to work out the duff performances to throw out, we could also give less weight to the lower figures over the course of 6 races as well, rather than just the most recent being the main basis (around 35% of the figure is based on last performance).

My other line of thought is that so far, we've established a 21.7% ROI figure on top 3s for instance, so we might take the view that in all those instances, we would "expect" that 21.7% is delivered across those horses so, on the assumption that this simply can't continue, we "rein in" the tissue prices by that exact figure and see what it might do the tissue price of other horses. We might also push the tissue on green horses out and bring the red horses tissue price in too . We may then have some interesting looking markets. It may mean less reds and greens, but when a green appears, it may then really warrant a look.

I appreciate the feedback on returns. This isn't dead, its just mothballed for a short while and there's something "in the can" that we can come back to later , even if there's no evidence whatsoever of continued profit.
 
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