The Fine Form Master Formula

[mjay]

formtheory people say it was Winners back Winners, but I could swear it was one of the later ones (not the ones where he went off into micro-angles about claimers etc)

If you take the distance and course aspects - they are actually vastly overrated and if you read Peter May's ATR articles he analyses this.
There are other points of entry if you want to use the two last wins formula - for example looking at age restrictions-



This is his first 3 in the forecast but I suspect this will direct away from the underbet opportunities that other less obvious digging may unearth

 

[Chesham]

Did not bet in the 2.10 but think I have found a good trend

 

[mjay]

You could also look at 3yos in all aged hcaps particularly in the summer months where the wfa is greatest and over the longer distances where the effect is most noticeable. The BHA attempts to address this with the revised scale in 2017 do not seem to have had much impact

 

[formtheory]

Cheers mjay

Not really for all the HRB stuff, I don't think you can measure something like Fineform as it's measuring every qualifier that's rated top etc.. It can't account for your own form reading and picking and choosing which you would actually be backing, if you know what I mean.

Like if you measured all favs you'd make a loss but you can profit by backing Favs by picking and choosing which to back and which to leave.

 

[mjay]

I know what you're saying, just like the VDW mechanical you are simply narrowing the field. I have to say that knowing what field you are looking at through can focus your attention - my final hrb screenshot for the fineform "13" rated

 

[formtheory]

Cheers for that mjay, I didn't mean I was against the HRB viewings or didn't want yo see them, just that they weren't for me personally.

It's definately useful in the ways you have shown above.

 

[Jackform]

The final classic and they say that winter rides in on the tail of the last horse home in the St Leger

. A non-hcap so not really my cup of tea.

Doncaster (going forecast g with some GF) RP Spotlight selects Pyle driver (6 pundits agree 7 oppose)
3.35 Market expected 09.10* no's 4, 5, 8, 9 indicating a win restricted to these.

1. 4 = 25/1 (33/1 mkt)
2. 7 = 14/1 (14/1)
4*. 13 = 7/1 (4/1) Galileo Chrome 2 tips. LTO 14 -4lbs cls? Nav 1/4 +5L ridden clear stayed on strongly easily. JP O'Bri4en 38% past 14 days.
5*. 17 = 5/1 (10/3) Hukum 4 tips. LTO 28 +6lbs =cls Nby 1/7 +2 1/2L pushed along to lead kept on strongly comfortably . C Burrows 5%
6. 2 = 50/1 (14/1)
7. 2 = 50/1 (66/1)
8*. 12 = 15/2 (7/2) (Pyledriver 7 tips)
9*.16 = 11/1 (7/2) Santiago 1 tip (D). LTO 46? -2lbs =cls Yor 1/8 +3 1/2L rapid headway shaken up led wandered clear kept on comfortably. AP O'Brien 22%.
10. 9 = 10/1 (20/1)
11. 6 = 16/1 (40/1)
12. 11 = 17/2 (50/1)

Comment: 1 pt each top 3 Fineform for interest (my personal fancy is Santiago

).

ATR form verdict in comparison.
PYLEDRIVER was a decisive winner of a very competitive renewal of the Great Voltigeur at York last month and that performance was only enhanced by the fact that he was carrying a 3lb penalty. William Muir's colt has to prove himself over this over longer trip but there is every chance that he will see out this afternoon. Santiago was far from disgraced when taking on older rivals in the Goodwood Cup last time and the Irish Derby winner is an obvious threat to the selection. Hukum accounted for a decent field in the Geoffrey Freer last month and he is another with valid form claims, while Galileo Chrome and Mohican Heights complete the shortlist.

Top Tip: PYLEDRIVER (8)
Watch out for: SANTIAGO (9)

 

[Jackform]

Yarmouth (going forecast GF with some G) RP Spotlight selects Shamshon (14 pundits oppose)
3.00 Market expected 11.00* no's 1, 2, 4, 5 indicating an open contest. Theoretical strong fav 6/4, possible contender 3/1, not expected longer than 6/1.

1*. 13 = 9/2 (4/1 mkt) Colonel Frank 3 tips (CD). LTO 18 +6lbs =cls Nmk 2/11 -1/2l ridden every chance kept on well, held
2*. 15 = 14/1 (3/1) Spirited Guest 4 tips (CD2). LTO 16 -4lbs +1cls? Yor 1/11 +ns challenged led edged right just prevailed.
3. 7 = 7/1 (8/1)
4*. 10 = 9/2 (4/1)
5*. 12 = 7/2 (11/2) Haveoneyerself 2 tips (C&D2D2). LTO 18 +8lbs =cls Nmk 7/11 -4 1/2L? ridden no extra weakened.
6. 9 = 7/1 (9/1)
7. 6 = 11/1 (8/1)

Comment: Fineform top Spirited guest is an improver and gets the call.

ATR form verdict in comparison.
Spirited Guest got back on the winning trail on soft ground over 6f here 16 days ago, but a 2lb rise and step back up in class make this a tougher test and preference is for COLONEL FRANK. After a busy summer, Mick Quinn's gelding showed the benefit of a 44-day break when a half-length second in a 5f handicap at Newmarket last month and he is 3lb lower than his victory here a couple of years ago. C&D winner Grandfather Tom has slipped back down to fair mark and can have his say.

Top Tip: COLONEL FRANK (1)
Watch out for: GRANDFATHER TOM (4)

 

[markfinn]

mick agrees with Grandpa Tom. Good luck with both

 

[Jackform]

Just a basic Fineform master formula rating assessment.

Haydock (going forecast GS showers) RP Spotlight selects Midnights Legacy. (1 pundit agrees 13 oppose)
4.35 Market expected 09.40* no's 1, 2, 6 indicating a win restricted to these. Theoretical strong fav 7/4, possible contender 7/2, not expected longer than 7/1. Splinter not considered asout of the long hcap.

1*. 13 = 4/1 Fineform fair (5/1 mkt) Midnights Legacy 2 tips (C2). LTO 34? +9lbs -1 cls* Yor 9/14 -27L? ridden soon beaten.
2*. 15 = 7/2 10/3) Boss Power 3 tips (D). LTO 16 -3lbs +1cls? Wol AW 1/6 +2 3/4L ridden kept on strongly comfortably. M Stoute rates 21/S de Sousa
3. 10 = 11/2 (9/1)
4. 1 = 80/1 (9/1)
5. 5 = 12/1 (8/1)
6*. 17 = 3/1 (5/2) Prince Alex 8 tips. LTO 18 -5lbs +1cls? Lei 1/7 +1 1/4L chased leader led ran on comfortably. R Beckett rates 19/Rossa Ryan
7. 3 = 22/1 (16/1)
8. 1 = 80/1 (15/2)
9?. 2 = 33/1 (50/1)

Comment: Can't argue with the ATR verdict so the bet is to dutch Boss Power and Prince Alex.

ATR form verdict in comparison.
BOSS POWER appeared to benefit from the step up to this trip when scoring comfortably at Wolverhampton last time and a 6lb rise might not be enough to anchor him on his turf return. Prince Alex has impressively rattled off three wins in a row and won't give up on the four-timer without a fight, while Midnights Legacy could bounce back from a lacklustre York performance with his sights lowered.

Top Tip: BOSS POWER (2)
Watch out for: PRINCE ALEX (6)

 

[Jackform]

Try something basic today but with it being hay and feed time for yards have to be a little cautious.

Ayr (going forecast G with some GS) RP Spotlight selects Redarna (2 pundits agree 11 oppose)
3.15 market expected 09.05* no's 2, 3, 4, 5, 6 indicating an open contest. Theoretical strong fav 2/1, possible contender 4/1, not expected longer than 8/1.

1. 3 = 22/1 (17/2 mkt)
2*. 17 = 3/1 (5/2) Harrison Point 5 tips (C&DD3). LTO 10 +4lbs =cls Ayr 3/8 -3 1/2L? short of room ridden no impression. Past 14 days A Watson 13%/H Doyle
3*. 7 = 17/2 15/2)
4*. 9 = 13/2 (4/1) Hajjam 4 tips (C&D2CD4). LTO 10 +6lbs =cls Ayr 2/8 (Harrison Point 3rd) -1 1/2L, short of room switched right chased kept on held.
5*. 11 = 5/1 (7/1) Byron's Choice (C&D2BF). LTO 12 -5lbs +1cls? Ayr 4/13 -2 1/4L, ridden rallied kept on. Past 14 days M Dods 16%/P Mulrennan
6*. 4 = 16/1 (13/2)
7. 6 = 10/1 (16/1)
8. 3 = 22/1 (12/1) (speculative long-odds punt Right Action 1 tip (D6) Past 14 days R Fahey 16%/P Hanagan)
9. 6 = 10/1 (11/1)

Comment: Looks open on paper where those at the longer odds of the market expected could be considered for dutching IMO, Redana 3 tips and Flying Pursuit 1 tip?

ATR form verdict in comparison.
In a wide-open event the marginal preference is for FLYING PURSUIT, who bounced back to form when a close fifth in the Ayr Bronze Cup 11 days ago. The seven-year-old is now 1lb lower in the ratings and he rarely runs poorly at this venue. Hajjam only found one too good over C&D recently and he could prove to be the main threat to the selection, ahead of Harrison Point and Get Knotted.

Top Tip: FLYING PURSUIT (6)
Watch out for: HAJJAM (4)

 

[Chesham]

Hexham 1.15 Millie Of Mayo

 

[Jackform]

Ascot (going forecast GS showers) RP Spotlight selects Cold Front (3 pundits agree 8 oppose)
4.50 Market expected 09.35* no's 2, 4, 5, 6, 8 indicating a win restricted to these. Theoretical strong fav 5/2, possible contender 5/1, not expected longer than 10/1.

1. 0 = ? (22/1 mkt)
2*. 11 = 6/1 Fineform (10/3) Society Lion 5 tips. LTO 27 +14lbs? =cls Asc 3/16 -3/4L ridden hug left headed lost 2nd. M Stoute 22% past 14 days. OK draw.
3. 9 = 13/1 (20/1)
4*. 14 = 9/2 (10/1) Musicality (D). LTO 21 +2lbs =cls Don 8/11 -6 3/4? ridden weakened. R Varian 23% Past 14. Good draw*.
5*. 6 = 12/1 (7/2) (Cold Front 4 tips W Haggas/T Marquand)
6*. 6 = 12/1 (5/1)
7. 0 = ? (25/1)
8*. 11 = 6/1 (9/1) Fresh 1 tip (DBF). LTO 22 -11lbs* +1cls? Don 4/14 -1 3/4L chased leader ridden kept on (was slow away), J Fanshawe 13% past 14. Draw?
9. 14 = 9/2 (14/1) Many A Star (D2). LTO 16 -11lbs* +2cls? Yor 1/6 +2L ridden led kept on strongly. J Given 20% past 14. Poor draw to overcome?
10. 5 = 15/1 (12/1)
12. 2 = 40/1 (66/1)

Comment: Try the Fineform top-rated Musicality and dutch with Society Lion.

ATR verdicts in comparison.
COLD FRONT ran well from the front for a long way when second over 7f at Doncaster last time and could be ready for a return to sprinting. Society Lion has been holding his form well over 7f too and makes plenty of appeal on his course third last time. Sir Michael Stoute's charge is another who could be keeping on well in the closing stages, while there may also be big runs on the cards from Fresh, who was left with plenty to do at Doncaster last time, and recent Yarmouth winner Many A Star.

Top Tip: COLD FRONT (5)
Watch out for: FRESH (8)

Timeform verdict
A strong 3-y-o handicap. KING'S LYNN had excuses for his run in the Ayr Silver Cup and is worth another chance as he remains well treated based on his second to a subsequent listed winner on his reappearance. Society Lion was headed only late on in a big-field 7f event here last time and rates a likely danger, while Cold Front is also respected for a yard that has won this twice in recent years.

Timeform 1-2-3
KING'S LYNN (6)SOCIETY LION (2)COLD FRONT (5)

 

[Jackform]

Off to the emerald island because the going is good - I don't believe it

. A modified Fineform as I had to rate the past three runs.

Killarney (going forecast G to Y showers) RP Spotlight selects Weihnachts (4 pundits oppose)
5.05 Market expected 11.25* no's 2, 7, 8, 9, 12, 13 indicating a win restricted to these. Theoretical strong fav 3/1, possible contender 6/1, not expected longer than 12/1.

2*. 6 = 13/1 Fineform (10/1 mkt)
3. 2 = 40/1 (18/1)
4. 2 = 40/1 (14/1)
5. 3 = 20/1 14/1)
6. 3 = 20/1 (14/1)
7*. 15 = 9/2 (7/2) Weinhnachts 1 tip. LTO 28 +4lbs =cls 2/10 -14L? No impression on easy winner, kepr on 2nd
8*. 11 = 13/2 (11/2) Different Spot 2 tips. LTO 10 +3lbs =cls 3/10 -9.5L? not fluent no extra stayed on
9*. 10 = 15/2 (10/1) (Island Master LTO 52 -11lbs* +1cls? 5/13 -17L? stayed on no challenge)
10. 0 = ? (16/1)
11. 2 = 40/1 (18/1)
12*. 11 = 13/2 (6/1) Cluan Dara 1 tip. LTO 9 -16lbs* +1cls? Brought down.
13*. 18 = 7/2 (4/1) Railway Muice 1 tip. LTO 30 +6lbs =cls 2/10 -1L chased leader kepr ton well did nor reach winner.
14. 2 = 40/1 (38/1)

Comment: On the nose Railway Muice or dutch with Weinhnachts possibly.

ATR form verdict in comparison.
ISLAND MASTER won over slightly further at this venue last summer and the veteran can record a fourth career win over fences. He didn't run badly when staying on for fifth at Tramore when last seen in August, and his trainer has reported that he's best off a break, so he should be primed for this contest. Former point-to-point winner Different Spot was having his first race over fences in over a year when a creditable third at Listowel and he can come forward from that, while Railway Muice has been consistent in handicap chases over the summer and shouldn't be far away again. Weihnachts (declared to run at Tipperary on Sunday) ran well after a layoff at Galway and would have to be considered if taking up this engagement.

Top Tip: ISLAND MASTER (9)
Watch out for: DIFFERENT SPOT (8)

 

[Chesham]

Redcar 4.35 Ben Lilly

 

[Chesham]

 

[pete]

well done Chesham

 

[retriever]

.
My FINEFORM system - which is a little strict with regards to the selection criteria - has thrown up two bets today!!

Conceptualised on the 28th August, it has only had one runner since then, which won at 7/4.








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[Wizardry7]

Getting back to what Chesham & others said about a 5 points in a seller being the same as a 5 points in a group race, picking the bones out of this may work

The Superior Ratings System

We look at the best way to rate Flat Handicap races to find just one selection a day with the best chance of winning.

www.raceadvisor.co.uk

ArkRoyal & dave58 if this breaks forum rules please accept my apologies & delete

Surely anything that gives points for the first 4 or 5 in the betting forecast and for recent form figures will all end up selecting one of the fisrt 2 favs mostly?

 

[Wizardry7]

.... It's really all quite fascinating. So how do you go about converting ratings into fair odds? I would not have the fainest idea how to go about doing this. Is there a secret to this or to a horsey man it just comes naturally ?

I've had some success with this tissue tool. Choose your criteria and it calculates a tissue price and min bsp to back at. Had some big winners but losers too.

Betting Tissue Tool Home

Creating your own betting tissue is a way of pricing up a race to create your own odds for each horse.

www.informracing.com