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The Fine Form Master Formula

Jackform

Gelding
Wizardry7 Wizardry7, we keep returning to this as it is sensible IMO :prankster: . I normally make a pen-and-paper chart and convert the ratings into odds to compare with the early betting market. This is an example of a top-class stakes rated with Fineform master formula criteria using online RP data.

The simple arithmetic to convert the ratings to fair odds that I use is to add the ratings, divide the total into 100, and note the result to three figures of decimals. In this case it was 105, which gave .952. The multiply each individual rating by the .952 to give a percentage. convert the percentage to odds using the field money table. I just use the result to compare with the early betting market noting any major difference.

Doncaster (going forecast S) RP Spotlight selects Anna Nerium (2 pundits agree 11 oppose)
2.05 Market expected 2.05* no's 1, 3, 5, 7, 8, 11, 13, 14 indicating an open contest. Theoretical strong fav 3/1, possible contender 6/1, not expected longer than 12/1.

1*. 17 = 5/1 Fineform (4/1 mkt) Anna Nerium 3 tips (D). LTO 29, +2lbs< = class, Nmk
2. 6 = 16/1 (22/1)
3*. 16 = 11/2 (7/2) Freyja 1 tip (D). LTO 7, +7lbs, =cls, Nmk
4. 5 = 20/1 (22/1)
5*. 1 = 100/1 (12/1)
6. 0 = ? (14/1)
7*. 11 = 17/2 (10/1)
8*. 8 = 12/1 (10/1)
10. 10 = 10/1 (16/1)
11*. 5 = 20/1 (12/1)
12. 12 = 8/1 25/1) Salsada (D2). LTO 51? +3 class? Ayr
13*. 4 = 25/1 (13/2)
14*. 10 = 10/1 (11/1)

Comment: This is just an example and I'm not playing but if you follow the crowd dutch Anna Nerium and Freyja, where Freyja come s out the class/form horse IMO.

ATR form verdict in comparison.

Born With Pride has lost her way this year but would be interesting if first-time cheekpieces galvanised her. However, preference is for ANNA NERIUM, who lost little in defeat when second in a Group 3 at Newmarket last time, with Trefoil back in fourth, and is entitled to improve for this drop in grade. The thriving Freyja battled on well to land a Listed heat at Newmarket last time and is another expected to take a hand.
Top Tip: ANNA NERIUM (1)
Watch out for: FREYJA (3)
 

Jackform

Gelding
Yesterday the race preamble got it right - it was an open contest. Today it's the vets with another open contest indicator to consider?

To digress; talking about old-timers my wife said to me earlier, 'Did you know you are 7 years older than Joe Biden?', I said 'Thank you for telling me that, dear!' :(

Sandown (going forecast S?GS mixture) RP Spotlight elects Singlefarmpayment (1 pundit agrees 11 oppose)
3.30 Market expected 10.50* no's 1, 3, 4, 5, 6, 7 indicating an open contest. Theoretical strong fav 9/4, possible contender 9/2, not expected longer than 9/1.

1*. 9/1 fair (11/2 mkt)
2. 9/1 (30/1)
3*. 11/1 (11/2)
4*. 17/2 (7/2) Step Back 5 tips (CD5). LTO 14 +4lbs, =1cls? Wcn. 1/3 +3L faced strong challenge kept on strongly from last (Dowst 33/58)
5*. 15/2 (3/1) Sametegal 3 tips (BF). LTO 14 =lbs, =cls, Ain. 3/12 _14 1/2L? Briefly went 2nd weakened. (Dowst 23/80)
6*. 10/1 (5/1
7*. 17/2 (9/1) Jepeck (C&D). LTO 238? +4lbs, =cls, Crl. 4/6 -15L? Ridden before 2 out weakened. (Dowst 19/66)
8. 15/2 (10/1) Brother Tedd 1 tip (C). LTO 36o? -11lbs*, +1cls? 2/8 -nk. Sustained battle with winner no extra finish just held on. (Dowst 24/66)
9. 10/1 (35/1)
10. 12/1 (30/1)

Comment: The fair odds shown are from the RTR predictor that often differs from the more well known. Step Back looks the early market selection on paper. Would Brother Tedd be a reasonable each-way bet with the weight-drop, R Johnson up.
 

Jackform

Gelding
hedgehog hedgehog, that's kind of you, although I'm not sure about excellent more trying for an in depth systematic look. :prankster:

Kempton (going forecast G with some GF showers) RP Spotlight selects Storm Goddess (2 pundits agree 11 oppose)
2.48 Market expected 09.35* no's 1, 2, 3, 7 indicating aw in restricted to these. Theoretical strong fav 7/4, possible contender 7/2, not expected longer than 7/1. Not considered 8 and 9 as out of the long hcap.

1*. 6 = 12/1 Fineform fair (10/3 mkt)
2*. 11 = 6/1 (5/1) The Cashell Man 2 tips (D). LTO 31, +5lbs, +1cls? Chp. 4/4 -37L? Headed blundered weakened. (Dowst 21/53)
3*. 16 = 4/1 (15/4) Flash Glance 4 tips (CD). LTO 23, -12lbs*, +1cls? Mar. 1/9 +1 1/2L. Made all ridden edged left ran on gamley. Dowst 21/53)
4. 14 = 9/2 (9/1) Enniscoffey Oscar (D). LTO 105? +4lbs, +1cls? Mar. 1/12, +1 1/2L*. Chased switched went 2nd led stayed on. (Dowst 26/46)
5. 3 = 25/1 (14/1)
6. 9 = 8/1 (11/1)
7*. 10 = 7/1 (4/1) Storm Goddess 3 tips. LTO 17, -15lbs*, +1cls? Chl. 4/19, -3L. Ridden headway kept on strongly went 4th no match with winner. (Dowst 13/53)
8. 8 = 9/1 (20/1)
9. 2 = 40/1 (12/1)
10. 0 = ? (33/1)

Comment: I go with the crowd and Flash Glance after two career best runs then Storm Goddess with a good run at Cheltenham last time.

ATR form verdict in comparison.

THE CASHEL MAN did not take to fences when well beaten at Chepstow last month but the eight-year-old was second in the Challow Hurdle last year and he should be capable of making his mark off his current rating. Flashing Glance is an obvious threat having won twice in recent months but he now has to defy a career-high mark. Younevercall has been off the track for a long time now but he was a Grade 2 winner when last seen over hurdles and he should not be written off.
Top Tip: THE CASHEL MAN (2)
Watch out for: FLASHING GLANCE (3)
 

Jackform

Gelding
This is the Technotipsters 'common race' today so I am rather out of my league with my two-pennerth :eek:

Huntingdon (going forecast G) RP Spotlight selects Rowland Ward (1 pundit agrees 13 oppose)
1.45 Market expected 10.25* no's 2, 3, 7, 9 indicating a win restricted to these. Theoretical strong fav 2/1, possible contender 4/1, not expected longer than 8/1.

1. 6 = 11/1 Fineform fair (38/1 mkt)
2*. 9 = 13/2 (4/1) Blacko 4 tips (D2). LTO 32, +6lbs, -1cls*, Chp. 5/12 -9 1/4L? Headway weakening when hit last. (Dowst 33/50)
3*. 11 = 11/2 (9/4) Wild Max 3 tips (D2). LTO 18, +8lbs, =cls, Chl. 4/17 -15L? badly hampered lost 3rd not recover. (Dowst 40/60) P Nicholls last 14 days 31%.
4. 2 = 33/1 (9/1)
5. 7 = 9/1 (66/1)
6. 2 = 33/1 (22/1)
7*. 17 = 33/1 (6/1) Contancio 3 tips (D). LTO 22, -9lbs, +1cls? Plu. 1/6 +1 3/4L*. Made all clear from 2nd ridden ran on well. (Dowst 20/56) D McCain last 14 days 21%.
8. 0 = ? (66/1)
9*. 15 = 7/2 (9/4) Namib Dancer 1 tip (D). LTO 16, =lbs, +1cls? Wcn. 1/8 +9 1/2L*. Headway went 2nd hung right led kept on well (Dowst 16/66)

Comment: This for me is one of those 'modern' hcaps with top weights officially favoured in which case the selection is Wild Max. Constancio looks a reasonable each-way chance on paper IMO.

ATR form verdict in comparison.
NAMIB DANCER created a taking impression when landing a Wincanton novice hurdle by nine and a half lengths recently and Emma Lavelle's six-year-old is of real interest joining the handicap ranks off a mark that could prove extremely lenient. Constancio made all to score at Plumpton last time and the in-form seven-year-old could figure again following a 4lb rise. Rowland Ward accounted for Thyme White (second) on his penultimate start and with the form of that victory well advertised by the runner-up since, Stuart Edmunds' four-year-old can't be ignored here.
Top Tip: NAMIB DANCER (9)
Watch out for: CONSTANCIO (7)
 

Jackform

Gelding
Struggling with race selection today and this 'hybrid' Fineform master formula is just to keep my hand in :prankster:

Sedgefield (going forecast GS) RP Spotlight selects Mah Mate Bob (2 pundits agree10 oppose)
2.50 Market expected 09.40* no's 4, 5 indicating a win restricted to these. Theoretical strong fav 6/4, possible contender 3/1, not expected longer than 6/1.

1. 66 = 6/1 (14/1 mkt) 1 tip
3. 48 =17/2 (15/2)
4*. 48 =17/2 (11/8) Oscar Wilde 9 tips (C)
5*. 116 = 3/1 (10/3) Mah Mate Bob 3 tips (C2). LTO 34, -6lbs,=cls,Ayr. 4/6 -16 1/2L? went 2nd then lost shoe. Chase Dowst% 37/62
6. 78 = 5/1 (13/2)
7. 99 = 7/2 (12/1)
8. 9 = 50/1 (15/2)

Comment: As recent form isn't worth considering IMO I rated overall career Chase performance. In which case a Ma Mate Bob is a contender to oppose the forecast strong fav Oscar Wilde.

ATR form verdict in comparison.
OSCAR WILDE improved from his first run of the season when fifth at Leicester and Sue Smith's gelding is only 1lb higher than his last win, which came here over a shorter distance in January. France De Reve shaped better than the bare result suggests when last on her chasing bow at Hexham and she commands respect dropping back in trip. Cherokee Bill, fourth on his debut for Henry Oliver, and Scottish Accent appear best of the remainder.
Top Tip: OSCAR WILDE (4)
Watch out for: FRANCE DE REVE (1)
 
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Chesham

Sire
As no one seems to post on this Thread I will be posting future Selections for this method on The Blog

4/6 so far
 
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Jackform

Gelding
I'm still posting :handgestures-thumbup:basic Fineform master formula when I find something suitable IMO.

Wincanton (going forecast GS with some S) RP Spotlight selects Take Your Time (43pundits agree 10 oppose)
1.30 Market expected 10.05* no's 1, 2, 6, 8, 10, 12, 13 indicating an open contest.

1*. 11 = 9/1 Fineform fair (4/1 mkt) Take Your Time. 4 tips. LTO 35 (BF), +10lbs? +1cls? Chp. 2/11 -9.5L. Poor jumping well held went 2nd. Dowst 33/100
2*. 12 = 8/1 (11/4) Sizable Sam. 4 tips (C). LTO 25, +14lbs? +1cls? Wcn. 1/14 +1 3/4L. Not fluent ridden always doing enough. Dowst 50/100
3. 2 = 80/1 (16/1)
4. 5 = 22/1 (35/1)
5. 6 = 18/1 (25/1)
6*. 8 =18/1 (15/2)
7. 6 = 18/1 (22/1)
8*. 3 = 35/1 (8/1)
9. 4 = 28/1 (20/1)
10*. 13 = 15/2 (9/2) Keep Rolling 1 tip. LTO 23, =lbs, =1cls? Her. 1/12 +17L*, Not fluent unchallenged. Dowst 25/50.
11. 0 = ? (100/1)
12*. 6 = 18/1 (11/1)
13*. 19 = 5/1 (9/1) Just So Cool. 2 tips (D). LTO 65? -11lbs*, +1cls? Mar. 1/12 +3/4L . clear 2 out ridden stayed on. Dowst 14/25

Comment: Looks difficult for punters on paper with class and D? A quick glance says nos 1 & 2. Just So Cool each-way could be the one for me?

ATR form verdict in comparison:
SIZABLE SAM showed plenty of ability when scoring here in novice company last month for Jeremy Scott and may have been let in lightly on handicap debut off an opening mark of 124. He beat Cadzand (now rated 138) in a Warwick bumper 11 months ago and has form figures at Wincanton of 221 from three outings. Take Your Time was a beaten favourite on testing ground at Chepstow 35 days ago and could prove the main threat, just ahead of recent Hereford scorer Keep Rolling.
Top Tip: SIZABLE SAM (2)
Watch out for: TAKE YOUR TIME (1)
 

Jackform

Gelding
Wolverhampton (going forecast standard -showers) RP Spotlight selects Athmad (3 pundits agree 10 oppose)
6.40 Market odds from around 10.30* no's 1, 2, 6, 8 indicating an open contest. Theoretical strong fav 6/4, contender 3/1, not expected longer than 6/1.

1*. 15 = 10/3 Fineform fair (10/3 mkt) Teston (D). LTO 17, +4lbs, =cls, Sth. 2/7 -3L. Dowst % 11/66
2*. 14 = 7/2 (11/4) Power Of States 3 tips. LTO 39, -3lbs, +1cls? Cfd. 3/6 -2 3/4L. Dowst % 66/100
3. 3 = 20/1 (9/1)
4. 7 = 10/1 (17/2)
6*. 10 = 11/2 (5/1)
7 . 0 = ? (11/1)
8*. 16 = 3/1 (3/1) Athmed (C&D4) 4 tips. LTO 14, -6lbs, +1cls? Wol. 1/7 +1L. Dowst % 44/46.

Comment: On paper Power Of States and Athmed look contenders with proven ability.

ATR form verdict in comparison.
Athmad has been in excellent form over this track and trip, winning two of his last four and finishing third in the two other races. He tackles much tougher company here, though, including POWER OF STATES. Hugo Palmer's gelding landed a hat-trick of victories at Chelmsford and though that winning run came to an end in Essex last time, he was far from disgraced in third and could fare well in this. Mythical Madness won two of his last three on the turf in the summer but might need this first outing since June, while Testan was a fair second over 7f at Southwell last time and could relish this sterner test.
Top Tip: POWER OF STATES (2)
Watch out for: ATHMAD (8)
 

Jackform

Gelding
Just bumping along to keep it going without a great deal of enthusiasm :( .

Newcastle (going forecast st to slw - sleet) RP Spotlight selects Tea Clipper ( 3 pundits agree 7 oppose)
3.55 Market expected 10.15* no's 2, 5, 8, 9, 10, 11 indicating an open contest.

9*. 12 = 7/1 Fineform fair (9/2 mkt) Nickolson 1 tip (D). LTO 59, =5lbs, -3 cls*, San. 6/10 -28L? Dowst% NHF 100/100.
10*. 14 = 11/2 (5/2) Tea Clipper 4 tips (BF). LTO 66, -7lbs, -2cls*, Nby. 5/12 -9L. Dowst% NHF Nil.
11*. 14 = 11/2 (10/1) Wise Eagle (C&D). LTO 13, +7lbs, =cls, Ncs. 1/13 +shd*. Dowst% NHF 100/100.

Comment: Tea Clipper f/cast a strong fav early. However, I might try Wise Eagle each-way :prankster:.

ATR form verdict in comparison.
Newtown Boy was always well placed before scoring here last month, while Proschema (15/2 Fineform, 3/1 mkt. 3 tips, C&D) came from well off the pace to score on the same card. Both have claims, though giving weight to some classy jumps horses might prove too much to bear. Forest Bihan (9 = 9/1 Fineform, 9/1 mkt 2 tips, C&D) certainly fits into that category as the Old Roan Chase winner attempts to overcome a couple of falls recently, but preference is for TEA CLIPPER. A Grade 3 winner over timber two starts ago, he was not disgraced off a mark of 141 in a handicap hurdle at Newbury last time and looks capable of landing the spoils here. Wise Eagle also scored at the jumpers' bumper meeting here last month and has to be of interest with his weight-for-age allowance.
Top Tip: TEA CLIPPER (10)
Watch out for: NEWTOWN BOY (1) (11 = 15/2 Fineform fair (16/1 mkt)
 

Jackform

Gelding
Strictly a Fineform master formula ratings example converted to fair odds.

Newbury (going forecast GS with some S and showers) RP Spotlight selects Cepage (13 pundits oppose)
2.25 Market expected 09.25* no's 1, 2 indicaitng a win restricted to these.

1*. 15 = 2/1 (Fineform fair) 1/1 (mkt) Clan Des Obeaux 10 tips (BF C2). LTO 57? -4lbs, -1cls* Kem 3/9 -8 1/2L? not fluent ridden no impression.
2*. 10 = 4/1 (9/2) Lostintranslation (C). LTO 57? -4lbs, -1cls* Kem PU
3. 6 = 11/1 (13/2) (Cepage)
4. 7 = 8/1 (12/1)
6. 4 = 35/1 (13/2)
7. 11 = 7/2 (10/1) Secret Investor (BF). LTO 85? -9lbs, -1cls* Nby 11/18 -53L? soon struggling weakening (lost shoe)
8. 4 = 35/1 (33/1)

Comment: Clan Des Obeaux apparently has only to turn up but looks short opposite the risk IMO.

ATR form verdict in comparison.
Paul Nicholls has won this nine times since the year 2000 and has a great chance of making that 10 with CLAN DES OBEAUX, who looks to add to his 2019 victory in this contest. The race was run at Ascot on that occasion, but the nine-year-old won here as a novice chaser and the course should play to the strengths of the dual King George winner. He was perhaps feeling the effects of a gruelling return in the Betfair Chase when having to settle for third at Kempton on Boxing Day, but has a decent record fresh and a 57-day break is long enough to have recharged the batteries. Colin Tizzard is another handler synonymous with recent success in this race and sends his Gold Cup third Lostintranslation on a recovery mission following two underwhelming appearances this season. He has undergone wind surgery in the interim and would have a great chance if back to his very best. Secret Investor chased home Native River in this 12 months ago and could fill a similar supporting role, while it will be interesting to see how Kalashnikov fares following a second in the Peterborough Chase.
Top Tip: CLAN DES OBEAUX (1)
Watch out for: LOSTINTRANSLATION (2)
 

Jackform

Gelding
Doncaster (going forecast GS) RP Spotlight selects Ami Desbois (3 pundits agree 7 oppose)
3.30 Market expected 10.15* no's 2, 3, 6, 7 indicating a win restricted to these. Theoretical strong fav 7/4, possible contender 7/2, not expected longer than 7/1.

1. 5 = 10/1 Fineform fair (15/2 mkt)
2*. 11 = 4/1 (4/1) Ami Desbois 4 tips. LTO 46? -2lbs, =cls, Kem. 2/11 -1 1/4L, mistake last stayed on (lst shoe), Dowst% 12/50.
3*. 15 = 5/2 (3/1) Rocky's Treaasure 5 tips (C&D2D2). LTO 25, +7lbs, -1cls*, Don. PU. Dowst% 35/57. K Bailey rates 14/D Bass.
5. 0 = ? (14/1)
6*. 8 = 6/1 (5/1) Flying Angel 1 tip. LTO 67? +9lbs, -1cls*, Asc. 5/10 -25L ridden soon weakened. Dowst% 14/22. N Twiston-Davies rates 15/J Nailor (3)
7*. 4 = 13/1 (9/2
8. 4 = 13/1 (11/1)
9. 7 = 7/1 (10/1)

Comment: Rocky's Treasure preferred to Ami Dubois but OK to dutch early market.

ATR for verdict in comparison.
Each of FAGAN's three efforts so far this season have been promising and he won impressively over an extended 2m7f at Newbury last time. The 11-year-old is clearly in good heart and, despite a 10lb hike in the ratings, looks sure to mount a bold bid. Ami Desbois ran a cracker on his return from a 343-day break at Kempton last month and must enter calculations, while Guitar Pete has a definite chance if none the worse for his fall in the same Kempton event.
Top Tip: FAGAN (4) (non-runner)
Watch out for: AMI DESBOIS (2)
 

Swarfiga

Yearling
My method based assessments have not been doing too well at the start of the Flat turf season leading me to consider reverting to a rigid system. The following snippet from the RacingSystemsBuilder e-book makes the case for doing so:

" We believe that the professional approach must be based on racing systems. The system is the cornerstone of rational punting. A system is an inflexible set of rules for making selections to back. For those with good punting temperament, this may merely constitute the framework for selection, providing potential qualifiers from amongst which final bets are drawn on the basis of gut feelings. Very difficult not to become irrational when things are running against you on this basis, though. This is where the inflexible system scores time and time again. Selections are automatically backed whatever the gut feelings, and it’s surprising how often the gut feelings prove wrong, especially if one is an inherently insecure or pessimistic punter."

The Fine Form Master Formula is a rational system, followed by many I understand. Without disclosing all the rules it provides rating for any race from the first 3 in a betting forecast, the last 2 outings in the current season, course and distance winners, and the top 3 from a handicap rating. The top possible rating is 20, plus 1/2 and/or just a + for splitting joint rated. The only extra element I introduce is to avoid extreme going.

Ascot (early season the downside is the lack of two outings in the current season, which is the main plank of the system, so we will have to see how it goes).

Ascot (going forecast GS)
2.10 The Last Lion 19 1/2, Sterling Silva 19
2.45 Light Up Our World 13, Raaqy 7, Dawn Of Hope 6
3.20 Clever Cookie 13, Mizzou 10 1/2, Flying Officer 10
3.55 Gifted Master 19 1/2, C Note 19, Washington DC 18
4.30 CaptainCat 11, Arod 10 1/2, GM Hopkins 10+, Balty Boys 10
5.00 Pearll Spectre 11 1/2, Steal The Scene 11, Gannicus 8
Clive Holt's FineForm?
 

Jackform

Gelding
If you are going to be systematic you will not find better than the Fineform master formula as the basis to start evaluation, trust me I'm an old mug punter :prankster: . The feature race of the day on the UK mainland.

Kelso (going forecast GS) RP Spotlight selects Tommy's Oscar (2 pundits agree 11 oppose)
3.15 Market expected 10.55* no's 3, 4, 5, 6, 7, 10, 14 indicating a win restricted to these. Theoretical strong fav 3/1, possible contender 6/1, not expected longer than 12/1. (Orkin not considered as outside the long hcap).

1. 10 = 11/1 Fineform fair odds (16/1 mkt 10.55)
2. 12 = 9/1 (25/1) Voix Du Reve. 1 tip. LTO 28, -1lb, =cls, Mus. 2/10 -3 1/4L. headed not fluent ridden no extra run in. Dowst% 19/50
3*. 15 = 7/1 (13/2) Faivoir 4 tips (D3). LTO 42? +1lb, -1cls*, Hay. 1/5 +nk. Hung left ran on led final strides. Dowst% 60/30*
4*. 9 = 12/1 (11/2)
5*. 6 = 20/1 (8/1)
6*. 16 = 13/2 (9/4) The Shunter 2 tips (DBF). LTO 23, +1lb, =cls, Leo. 320 -3 3/4L. ridden rallied no match for first two. Dowst% 18/27
7*. 10 = 11/1 (13/2)
8. 7 = 16/1 (100/1)
9. 2 = 60/1 (20/1)
10*. 6 = 20/1 (9/1)
11. 8 = 14/1 (80/1)
12. 2 = 60/1 (33/1)
13. 7 = 16/1 (40/1)
14*. 12 = 9/1? (12/1)

Comment: The Shunter is currently forecast a very strong fav and is too short opposite the risk IMO. Faivoir at current odds looks a better bet each-way
ATR form verdict in comparison.
Christopher Wood finished second behind the talented Cadzand at Kempton over Christmas and confirmed the strength of that form when successful at Musselburgh in February. A 7lb rise makes life tougher for Paul Nicholls' charge, and perhaps THE SHUNTER still has a bit in hand. Emmet Mullins' Greatwood Hurdle winner finished third over fences in a valuable race at Leopardstown four weeks ago, and could relish this return to hurdles on better ground. Faivoir has won three of his last four and may also go close.
Top Tip: THE SHUNTER (6)
Watch out for: FAIVOIR (3)
 

Jackform

Gelding
Trying a variation of the factor weightings at the start of the season to see how it goes :) .

Sandown (going forecast G with some GF watering) RP Spotlight select Tawreeq (1 pundit agrees 9 oppose)
1.55 Market expected 09.55* no's 4, 5 indicating a win restricted to these. Theoretical strong fav 6/4, possible contender 3/1, not expected longer than 6/1 (No's 9 & 10 not considered as out of the long hcap?)

1. 55 = 6/1 fair (13/2 mkt) Naamoos 1 tip (D) Extra required under top weight? M Johnston rates 30.
2. 34 = 10/1 (7/1)
4. 54 = 6/1 (5/2) Rifleman 2 tips, LTO 163? On a good mark could go well. J&T Gosden rate 20.
5*. 57 = 11/2 (11/4) Dingle 4 tips (D). Progressive with strong form prbably more to come? R Hannon rates 21
6*. 22 = 16/1 (7/1)
7. 24 =15/1 (28/1)
8. 34 = 10/1 (20/1)
9? 50 = 13/2 (12/1)
10? 49 = 13/2 (22/1)

Comment: My fair odds rated on past form are rather longer than the current market support for the fancied runners. I would dutch Dingle and Rifleman.

ATR form verdict in comparison.
This appears to be a very competitive renewal of this contest but the marginal preference is for ILZA'EEM, who created a big impression when getting off the mark easily on his seasonal return at Redcar earlier in the month. The Crisford's colt had chased home a pair of exciting prospects in his two juvenile starts at Kempton last November and it would be no surprise if an opening mark of 89 underestimated his ability. Rifleman improved with every start as a two-year-old and the son of The Gurkha should have more to offer this year. Dingle confirmed his well-being with a placed effort in a similar contest at Newbury a week ago and he should be thereabouts once again. Others to consider are Quintillus and Naamoos.
Top Tip: ILZA'EEM (3) (non-runner)
Watch out for: RIFLEMAN (4)
 

Jackform

Gelding
Satisfied with yesterday's trial and maybe Rifleman could have made it but for swerving :(, so more of the same today . Nothing too exciting for me with such small fields and the race I have opted for doesn't seem much of a class 2 IMO.

Haydock (going forecast GF watered) RP Spotlight selects Dreamloper (5 pundits agree 9 oppose)
2.50 Market expected 09.30* no's 1, 2, 4, 5, 7, 9, 10 indicating and open contest. Theoretical strong fav 3/1, possible contender 6/1, nor expected longer than 12/1.

1*.5 = 66/1 fair (11/2 mkt)
2*. 3 = 125/1 (10/1)
3. 14 = 25/1 (16/1)
4*. 30 =11/1 (13/2)
5*. 29 = 11/1 (15/2)
6. 34 = 9/1 (40/1)
7*. 64 = 9/2 (7/2) Dreamloper 6 tips (D) LTO 231? Progressive last season could be better to come? ED walker rates 9.
8. 8 = 40/1 (18/1)
9*. 51 = 6/1 (8/1) Marshal Dan 2 tips (C&DD6). Consistent and 2nd Mus 3 weeks ago.
10*. 54 = 11/2 (13/2) Gobi Sunset (D). 2nd LTO 4 days ago could go well. M Johnston rates 27
11. 2 = 150/1 (50/1)
12. 3 = 125/1 (20/1)
13. 50 = 6/1 (20/1) (Duesenburg (CD) LTO 39 ran well won now in a stronger contest. R Fahey rates 26)

Comment: Track fitness after time off is the problem for rating many of these? It may pay to wait for any market movers, other than that dutching Dreamloper and Gobi Sunset could be the bet. Anyone prepared to speculate might try Deusenburg e.w. If Another batt goes in it will confound me ?

ATR form verdict in comparison.
Dreamloper remains unexposed as a four-year-old and she merits the utmost respect having won her final start in 2020 over a mile at Ascot in September. That said, a chance can be taken with ANOTHER BATT, who was highly tried after making a winning seasonal/stable debut over 6f at Thirsk last August. David Barron's gelding should appreciate this ease in grade and he is only 1lb above that last winning mark. Firmament is a likeable veteran who is more than capable of going well, while Admirality and Persuasion complete the shortlist.
Top Tip: ANOTHER BATT (2)
Watch out for: DREAMLOPER (7)
 
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