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The Fine Form Master Formula

Jackform

Gelding
Leodis Leodis , re. your query I will try and keep it short.

The true mathematical odds for a race are one point less than the number of runners e.g. 10 runners is 9/1. Runners longer than 9/1 are 'not expected'. Horses do win outside this range but not often in my experience.

Further to that a race expected to be 'restricted' to the short odds division is where not more than half the field are within the true mathematical odds range e.g. 10 runners no more than 5 of them up to 9/1 (a forum member who used to post conducted a survey and found 86% of restricted races were won by runners within the short odds division, but I do not know how big the survey was).
 

Jackform

Gelding
Tinkering again I have returned to the two most recent results for the form rating.

Redcar (going forecast G with some GF watered showers) RP Spotlight selects Tricolore (2 pundits agree 11 oppose)
5.00 Market expected 09.15* no's 1, 2, 4, 7 indicating a win restricted to these. Theoretical strong fav 7/4, possible contender 7/2, not expected longer than 7/1.

1*. 8 = 17/2 fair (15/4 mkt) Impulsive One 5 tips. Has potential. W Haggas rates 20
2*. 10 = 13/2 (6/1) Encounter Order 1 tip. Needs to improve?
3. 10 = 13/2 (14/1)
4*. 13 = 9/2 (5/2) Tricolore 3 tips. Career best win 31 days ago. Botti rates 13
5. 7 = 10/1 (10/1)
6. 5 = 14/1 (15/2)
7*. 11 = 11/2 (4/1) Realist 5 tips (D). Career best win 27 days ago. May go better.
8. 10 = 13/2 (251)

Comment: Could be closer than I credit it, however, dutching Tricolore and Realist could be a bet.

ATR form verdict in comparison.
In an open contest the marginal preference is for REALIST, who won impressively on his handicap debut over 1m2f at Chelmsford earlier in the month. That was his first start since a gelding operation and the unexposed three-year-old can defy a 9lb rise in the ratings today. Encounter Order chased home two useful rivals when finishing second in a pair of maidens last autumn and he should not be underestimated on his handicap debut. Tricolore and Impulsive One are the pick of the remainder.
Top Tip: REALIST (7)
Watch out for: ENCOUNTER ORDER (2)
 

Jackform

Gelding
I compiled a basic Fineform master formula chart plus an increment for time off track, weight-change and overall proven ability for the 2,000 Gns. Obviously the O'Briens constitute a threat, but:

3. Chindit 1 tip. 22 = 15/2 Fineform fair odds (9/1 mkt 09.35)
7. Master Of The Seas 3 tips (C&D). 22 = 15/2 (8/1)
8. Mutasaabeq 4 tips (C2). 21 = 8/1 (9/2)

Comment: Dutch the three.

ATR for verdict in comparison.
A wide-open renewal of this Classic and a lot of these are closely matched based on juvenile form and so a chance can be taken with MUTASAABEQ. The son of Invincible Spirit is out of a 1000 Guineas winner in Ghanaati and he won his sole start as a juvenile in a novice contest over 7f here in October. He then created a big impression when making all to win a conditions event over the same C&D at the Craven meeting. That form may be underestimated due to a perceived pace/rail bias that day, but it was a top-class performance and while this race is competitive it also lacks a superstar based on all known form. Wembley was second in the Dewhurst here in October and he appears to be the pick of the Ballydoyle trio, although Battleground should not be underestimated. Master Of The Seas should be able to settle off a decent pace today and it would be no surprise to see him in the mix, while Poetic Flare could go well at a decent price.
Top Tip: MUTASAABEQ (8)
Watch out for: WEMBLEY (15)
 
Last edited:

Jackform

Gelding
Beaten on the nod yesterday, story of my life - but today's another day :) .Post all the chart info today and then you can make up your own mind. This is a basic Fineform master formula rating plus an increment for time off track, weight-change and overall proven ability (a max for this represents about a third of a max basic Fineform)

Newmarket (going forecast GF watered) RP Spotlight selects Santa Barbara (1 pundit agrees 13 oppose) 1,000 Gns.
3.40 Early market 09.35* no's 1, 4, 5, 6, 7, 10 indicates an open contest.

1*. 26 = 4/1 fair (9/2 mkt) Alcohol Free. 1 tip (C). A Balding rates 28.
2. 8 =15/1 (14/1)
4*. 6 = 20/1 (17/2)
5*. 21 = 5/1 (15/2) Sacred. 4 tips (C). W Haggas rates 20.
6*. 14 = 8/1 (10/1) Saffron Beach. 3 tips (C2).
7*. 11 = 10/1 (15/8)
8. 5 = 25/1 (100/1)
9. 6 = 20/1 (80/1)
10*. 12 = 10/1 (8/1)
11. 5 = 25/1 (12/1)
12. 12 = 10/1 (16/1)

Comment: Dutch the three is the best I can offer :prankster:. Being speculative 12. Vadream 16/1 'not expected' may be of interest.

ATR form verdict in comparison.
Santa Barbara is an incredibly short price for a horse who has only had one run, but she did the job very easily in that Curragh maiden and has been the subject of some unusually bullish reports from her trainer, who feels that no horse can live with her on the Ballydoyle gallops. Inexperience could be an issue, though, so this might be the time to take her on. Her stablemate Mother Earth has plenty of top-level experience, but this could be a chance for SACRED to show her Nell Gwyn success was no fluke. A number of near-misses in Group races last term ended with a heavy defeat in the Cheveley Park Stakes, but she returned to action with a good win despite finding all sorts of problems here last month and she shaped as though this longer trip would suit. Alcohol Free won the Cheveley Park and struck at Newbury on her return, but the suspicion is that she might find this stretches her stamina too far. Lullaby Moon and Fev Rover also have claims, but look much better on soft ground.
Top Tip: SACRED (5)
Watch out for: SANTA BARBARA (7)
 

Jackform

Gelding
OK! So I am on my own here - old Billy No-mates :( .

Kempton (going forecast G with some GF watering showers) RP Spotlight selects Fidelio Vallis (8 pundits agree 5 oppose.
4.10 Market expected 10.00* no's 2, 5, 6 indicating a win restricted to these. Theoretical strong fav 6/4, possible contender 3/1, not expected longer than 6/1.

2*. 23 = 3/1 Fineform (7/5 mkt ) Fidelio Vallis 9 tips (D). Hcap debut. P Nicholls/Byrony Frost
3. 15 = 5/1 (22/1)
4. 10 = 8/1 (11/1)
5*. 17 = 9/2 (5/2) Numitor 2 tips (BF) T Scudamore up
6*. 17 = 9/2 (9/2) Shut The Box 1 tip
7. 10 = 8/1 (7/1)

Comment: Small interest in Fedelio Vallis for me.

AtR form verdict in comparison.
FIDELIO VALLIS makes his handicap debut off what looks a useful mark. Paul Nicholls' gelding was placed in Listed company over timber at this track and has arguably improved for the switch to fences, winning races at Fontwell and Southwell by wide margins. Topofthecotswolds reverts to chasing after some useful displays over timber, while Shut The Box won nicely enough at Newbury last time and could make an impact in this.
Top Tip: FIDELIO VALLIS (2)
Watch out for: TOPOFTHECOTSWOLDS (4)
 

hedgehog

Mare
You're not on your own Jackform Jackform , I read your evaluations with interest it's just you pick different races to me so I don't feel I can comment. Keep going and I'll keep reading!

Good luck and stay well
 

hedgehog

Mare
I read this thread Chesham Chesham , well done with your 5/7 yet again another impressive stay.

I read that Mtoto has passed over which I think is very sad. He once said I'd never get it, I hope I can prove to his spirit that I have learned and will eventually get it. A loss to the forum.

Stay well and good luck
 

Chesham

Sire
I read this thread Chesham Chesham , well done with your 5/7 yet again another impressive stay.

I read that Mtoto has passed over which I think is very sad. He once said I'd never get it, I hope I can prove to his spirit that I have learned and will eventually get it. A loss to the forum.

Stay well and good luck
Mtoto stuck To his guns. Not even Lee could persuade him any differently. He always posted his selections pre race at a time when many could only after time after the event.
I was on the Peach Forum with his late son Danny (Stone) Not being a member of Gummy I did not know that Mtoto existed , but Danny often referred to “The old man says” Years later I learned that “The Old Man“ was Danny, when Mtoto emailed to say that his so. Danny knew me.
 

markfinn

Sire
OK! So I am on my own here - old Billy No-mates :( .

Kempton (going forecast G with some GF watering showers) RP Spotlight selects Fidelio Vallis (8 pundits agree 5 oppose.
4.10 Market expected 10.00* no's 2, 5, 6 indicating a win restricted to these. Theoretical strong fav 6/4, possible contender 3/1, not expected longer than 6/1.

2*. 23 = 3/1 Fineform (7/5 mkt ) Fidelio Vallis 9 tips (D). Hcap debut. P Nicholls/Byrony Frost
3. 15 = 5/1 (22/1)
4. 10 = 8/1 (11/1)
5*. 17 = 9/2 (5/2) Numitor 2 tips (BF) T Scudamore up
6*. 17 = 9/2 (9/2) Shut The Box 1 tip
7. 10 = 8/1 (7/1)

Comment: Small interest in Fedelio Vallis for me.

AtR form verdict in comparison.
FIDELIO VALLIS makes his handicap debut off what looks a useful mark. Paul Nicholls' gelding was placed in Listed company over timber at this track and has arguably improved for the switch to fences, winning races at Fontwell and Southwell by wide margins. Topofthecotswolds reverts to chasing after some useful displays over timber, while Shut The Box won nicely enough at Newbury last time and could make an impact in this.
Top Tip: FIDELIO VALLIS (2)
Watch out for: TOPOFTHECOTSWOLDS (4)
1620057514887.png

cannot ask for more
 

Chesham

Sire
My Clive Holt system seems to have good results and the Strike Rate improves with a little extra study. Today I used an idea from a Malcolm Howard book which examined Paths

The Winning Trail 1995: How One Race Gives the Clue to Another Paperback – 9 Mar 1995



677E0396-5BE6-4FE2-A4B4-B8FC4C644077.jpeg
 

markfinn

Sire
God there are quite some experts on Google - and many have disparaged Holt in the past - but cannot argue with success

1620059462670.png

He was how ever a bit of a mystery and info about the man is scarce.
 

eeyore

Yearling
hi all work getting in the way at the moment just a question anybody using all the other systems fineform publish
 

Jackform

Gelding
I'm sticking with the jumpers established form for now although the Flat is well under way.

Newton Abbot (going forecast G watered) RP Spotlight selects Lalor (5 pundits agree 9 oppose)
2.30 Market expected 09.15* no's 1, 3, 4, 6, 7, 9 indicates an open contest. Theoretical strong fav 2/1, possible contender 4/1, not expected longer than 8/1.

1. 9 = 8/1 Fineform (9/2 mkt)
2. 6 = 12/1 (18/1)
3. 5 = 15/1 (11/2)
4. 13 = 5/1 (10/3) Eritage 5 tips (C&D). Comfortable C&D winner a month ago. P Nicholls/Byrony Frost
5. 7 = 11/1 (9/1)
6. 5 = 15/1 (13/2)
7. 15 = 9/2 (15/2) Marracudja 1 tip (CD). 2nd 7 ruuner race Ascot March. D Skelton/Bridget Andrews
8. 9 = 8/1 (18/1)
9. 12 = 6/1 (6/1) Kauto The King. Won last two outings Wincanton and Chepstow.

Comment: I think my betters the pundits prefer Lalor and Huntsman's Son but I will go with the big yards Eritage and Marracudja(The Skelton runner e.w. could be a bet to nothing at the current market odds IMO).

ATR form verdict in comparison.
HUNTSMAN SON unseated his rider in the Topham at Aintree last month, but he previously put in a solid effort when sixth in the Paddy Power Plate at Cheltenham in March and is 4lb lower in this weaker contest. Eritage beat a decent yardstick over C&D 32 days ago and might not have done improving yet at the age of just seven, while Lalor and Marracudja have been around for a few years now but would be dangerous if close to their peak form.
Top Tip: HUNTSMAN SON (3)
Watch out for: ERITAGE (4)
 
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