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The Fine Form Master Formula

brumbie

Yearling
Excel produced no runners today from either Australian Meetings or UK. Yesterday of course was predictable, not only because if you put your ratings up on the web they will invariably lose but also a strike rate of 61% is impossible to maintain as every statistician/punter knows.
I suspect this will turn into another "couldvbeen" but as I'm isolating and bored I hope you don't mind me indulging you too much.
 

brumbie

Yearling
Nothing again today.
I'll put these up on this thread when there is. If they were to lose then I think this is just a system with a lucky start so to speak and we will leave it at that. If they win then I should realy make a separate thread for them as this thread is famous for other matters and I don't want to add to it.
 

Jackform

Colt
No faffing about today just a straightforward Fineform master formula rating converted to odds, looks like better going too
:)
.

Bath (going forecast G with some GS showers) RP Spotlight selects Sri Sene Power (2 pundits agree 12 oppose)
4.00 Market expected 09.40* no's 3, 4, 6, 7, 8 indicating a win restricted to these. Theoretical strong fav 2/1, possible contender 4/1, not expected longer than 8/1.

1. 5 = 16/1 Fineform fair odds (11/1 mkt)
2. 8 = 10/1 (18/1)
3. 15 = 9/2 (15/2) By My Side 2 tips. Lto 20 +20lbs? -2cls* Sal 2/6 -5L out paced kept on no match with winner (Dowst% 16/66)
4. 17 = 4/1 (7/2) Rosa Gold. 3 tips. LTO 47? +3lbs +1cls? Chp 1/10 +2L hampered switched right led soon clear comfortably. (Dowst% 50/50)
5. 3 = c28/1 (9/1)
6. 13 = 11/2 (11/4) Sri Sene Power 3 tips. LTO 16 +1lb +1cls? Wdr 1/11 +1/2L headway drifted left shaken up ran on well led cosily. (Dowst% 33/33)
7. 6 = 13/1 (11/2)
8. 10 = 15/2 (8/1)
9. 7 = 11/1 (12/1)

Comment: Dutch Rosa Gold and Sri Sene Power. Studying my chart it may not be so straightforward as just 1 and 2 have won at the D and Time form goes 9, 4 and 6. Also these are fillies and it's their mindset on the day that is unknown to us?

ATR form verdict in comparison.
ROSA GOLD hasn't looked back since beginning life in handicap company in June, having won her last three outings, and the manner of her latest success at Chepstow suggested the step up in trip could unlock further progression. By My Side finished second at Salisbury last month when proving no match for the winner but she has to be respected along with Tronada, who was unable to land the hat-trick at Doncaster in July but is of interest still.

Top Tip: ROSA GOLD (4)
Watch out for: BY MY SIDE (3)
 

brumbie

Yearling
1 Australian runner today:
MeetingTab NosHorseRace NosCH RatingCH RankCrse RankDist RankDays Rank
Northam Races
3​
PERFECT HARMONY
3​
3​
1​
1​
1​
1​
Will check UK around 10am(gmt).
 

brumbie

Yearling
PERFECT HARMONY lost today...If this keeps up I may of found a good laying system..
MeetingRace NosHorseTab NosCH RatingCH RankCrse RankDist RankDays Rank
Haydock-Park Races
1​
DAYSAN
1​
2​
1​
1​
1​
1​
Newcastle Races
3​
FIVETHOUSANDTOONE
4​
3​
1​
1​
1​
1​
Newcastle Races
5​
RHOSCOLYN
1​
5​
1​
1​
1​
1​
Just a quick edit, CH ratings = Clive Holt. The rating is 1st=5, 2nd=3, 3rd=2, 4th=1 only and no D or C involved. Thus the maximum would be 10. Then I use a different approach for distance and course to find the best ranked horse for those. Also the days. Putting this altogether with a top ranked horse from other ratings on the web which I then calculate their true odds and weigh up any edge. All a bit long winded...and if this keeps up a complete waste of time. Either way, I don't want to intrude on someone elses thread so I will have a look at these tomorrow and see if they are worth putting up on their own thread or not..thanks guys.:)
 
Last edited:

Jackform

Colt
Try another Fineform. Yesterday's race went pear-shaped with the absence of Rosa Gold and we are with the fillies again today.

Salisbury (going forecast G with some GS showers) RP Spotlight selects Chil Chil ( 7 pundits agree 6 oppose)
3.40 market expected 10.00* no's 2, 7, 9, 13 indicating a win restricted to these. Theoretical strong fav 11/4, possible contender 11/2, not expected longer than 11/1.

1. 8 = 12/1 (28/1 mkt)
2*. 17 = 5/1 (15/8) Chil Chil 8 tips D4. LTO 26 +11lbs? =cls Asc 1/10 +1 3/4L smooth headway quickened clear readily (Dowst% 44/77) A Balding/O Murphy
3. 2 = 50/1 (22/1)
4. 2 = 50/1 (40/1)
6. 9 = 10/1 (12/1)
7*. 3 = 33/1 (17/2)
8. 7 = 13/1 (18/1)
9*. 16 = 11/2 (6/1) Theotherside D3. LTO 26 +3lbs = cls Asc 3/10 -2 3/4L to Chil Chil ridden went 3rd kept on (Dowst % 50/100) R Hannon/PDobbs
10. 7 = 13/1 (20/1
11. 7 = 13/1 (22/1)
12. 7 = 13/1 (16/1)
13*. 15 = 11/2 (10/3) Bimble D. LTO 80? -4lbs +3cls? Goo 1/7 +3 3/4L not clear run switched left led soon clear readily (Dowst% 50/50)

Comment: Chil Chil is forecast the strong fav and short opposite the risk. Is the weight increase enough for Theotherside to prevail or can Bimble up her game in this class? Spring Of Love from the powerful Appleby yard is fancied but not being supported early?

ATR form verdict in comparison.
CHIL CHIL produced a career-best effort when scoring in great style at Ascot last month and a 9lb rise for that success is unlikely to stop Andrew Balding's four-year-old from taking another step forward. Spring Of Love raced too keenly on her return at Haydock in Listed company and can leave that effort behind her as she drops in trip, while Silver Machine can enter the reckoning on her handicap bow.

Top Tip: CHIL CHIL (2)
Watch out for: SPRING OF LOVE (7)
 
Which book did Clive Holt show the "Master formula" in?

The book I have, the max rating is 13.


I have be a successful punter with Fineform as your guide.
 
Hi nicksar nicksar

I already know the rules but wanted to know what book it's from.

I use the original method, of 13 points and you'd be suprised how many are not favs.

It's a decent start point in my opinion alongside reading the form.
 
Hi nicksar nicksar

I already know the rules but wanted to know what book it's from.

I use the original method, of 13 points and you'd be suprised how many are not favs.

It's a decent start point in my opinion alongside reading the form.
I wouldn't be surprised how many top rated on the 13 max formula aren't favs Paul (first racing book i bought donkeys years ago)...but with the "master" formula you always end up with the Fav or a short priced runner :handgestures-thumbup:
 

Jackform

Colt
I see my name being taken in vain re. Fineform, but you already know the master formula variables. My comment is that I only use the formula to compile a chart for 'narrowing the field', hopefully to not more than three possibles and convert the ratings to odds to compare with the betting market. The three possibles are then 'subject to further consideration' to come to a final decision. Using different sources for the basic data can make a difference in particular the betting forecast and the handicap rating.

Goodwood 8 Sep (going forecast G) RP Spotlight selects Stag Horn (5 pundits agree 9 oppose)
4.40 Market expected 14.05* no's 5, 6, 7 indicating a win restricted to these. Theoretical strong fav 6/4, Possible contender 3/1, not expected longer than 6/1.

1. 7 = 17/2 Fineform (9/1 mkt)
2. 8 = 15/2 (17/2)
3. 4 = 16/1 (8/1)
4. 17 = 3/1 (11/1) (Seinesational 1 tip (CD) )
5*. 13 = 4/1 (3/1) Nuit St Georges 2 tips (C&D) D Menusier 29% past 14 days/30% past 5 years. (Dowst% 27/61)
6*. 9 = 13/2 (5/1)
7*. 10 = 6/1 (11/5) Stag Horn 6 tips (C) A Watson 17% past days/16% past 5 years. (Dowst% 28/71)

Comment: Nuit St George and Stag Horn for me, and Stag Horn is favoured over this D with the 3yo's weight allowance?

Using Formcast to replace RPR for a 4 rating alters the ratings as I said:

1. 3 = 25/1
2. 12 = 11/2
3. 8 = 9/1
4. 17 = 7/2
5. 17 = 7/2 Nuit St George
6. 9 = 8/1
7. 14 = 9/2 Stag Horn
 

Jackform

Colt
Here is one I have compiled for a mate who is having a punt on Aklam Express :prankster:

Doncaster (going forecast G with some GS) RP Spotlight selects Moss Gill ( 6 pundits agree 7 oppose)
2.10 Market expected 11.45* no's 1, 2, 5, 6, 8 indicating an open contest.

1*. 17 = 9/2 (3/1 mkt) Dakota Gold 3 tips (D6BF). +11lbs? C Beasley 10% past 14 days. Dowst% 28/57.
2*. 17 = 9/2 (11/4) Moss Gill 7 tips (C&DD4). +5lbs, D Tudhope 20% past 14. Dowst% 35/85)
3. 7 = 12/1 (9/1)
4. 5 = 18/1 (28/1)
5*. 12 = 13/2 (8/1)
6*. 12 = 13/2 (6/1)
7. 2 = 50/1 (50/1)
8*. 15 = 5/1 (9/2) Aklam Express 1 tip (D3). -6lbs, A Alzeni 14% past 14. Dowst% 75/100
9. 5 = 18/1 (18/1)

Comment: 5f so SF ought to be considered. My preference would be Moss Gill before Aklam Express.

ATR verdict in comparison.
MOSS GILL has stepped forward considerably on his last couple of starts, winning the City Walls at York before following that up with a fine third over the same C&D in the Nunthorpe to Battaash, and the four-year-old makes plenty of appeal dropping back down in class. Dakota Gold has bounced back on his most recent outings and is turned out quickly following his second at York on Sunday, while Makanah, who has been in consistent form this season, and progressive juvenile Acklam Express complete the shortlist.

Top Tip: MOSS GILL (2)
Watch out for: DAKOTA GOLD (1)

Timeform

A well-up-to-scratch renewal with the vote going to the likeable MOSS GILL, who grabbed some Group 1 place prize money in the Nunthorpe, an excellent effort considering he was held up in what became a real test of speed. Dakota Gold bumped into one with top-tier aspirations at York on Sunday and is a huge threat if turned out quickly, while Urban Beat brings Irish formlines to the table.

Timeform 1-2-3
MOSS GILL (2)DAKOTA GOLD (1)URBAN BEAT (6)
 
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