The 2.5 goal market trial...
- Thread starter paulb164
- Start date
paulb164
Colt
The 2 Sunday games (as with a lot of games for me on Sunday !) bombed. Anderlecht got themselves a red card at 1-1 and shut up shop... Schalke v Frankfurt only managed a single goal.
There are 2 games in the Bundesliga tonight... the Belgian league didn't highlight any qualifiers at all for their next full round of games;
There are 2 games in the Bundesliga tonight... the Belgian league didn't highlight any qualifiers at all for their next full round of games;
paulb164
Colt
Just 1 winner from the 2 Bundesliga games... Bayern just failing to get the last goal needed in their 2-0 win.
The P/L chart looks like this;
I think I can now draw a line under this trial which was started almost 6 months ago. I have checked the best part of 1000 games to pick qualifiers using the system detailed in the first post of this thread, with the following breakdown on results;
As you can see, of those 1000-odd games checked, there were only 96 qualifiers (even less when employing an odds filter to improve profitability). Both streams produced a profit, but it's a labour-intensive affair for too little reward considering the amount of regular checking that's needed.
If anyone wants to use this system, then the 1000 game test has proved it's profitability, and if you can automate the process in any way, then it's worth doing. I would suggest just concentrating on either high or low scoring leagues, as when I trialled an average scoring one (Sweden Allsvenskan) the results were not good.
The P/L chart looks like this;
I think I can now draw a line under this trial which was started almost 6 months ago. I have checked the best part of 1000 games to pick qualifiers using the system detailed in the first post of this thread, with the following breakdown on results;
As you can see, of those 1000-odd games checked, there were only 96 qualifiers (even less when employing an odds filter to improve profitability). Both streams produced a profit, but it's a labour-intensive affair for too little reward considering the amount of regular checking that's needed.
If anyone wants to use this system, then the 1000 game test has proved it's profitability, and if you can automate the process in any way, then it's worth doing. I would suggest just concentrating on either high or low scoring leagues, as when I trialled an average scoring one (Sweden Allsvenskan) the results were not good.
spreadsheetbettor
Yearling
paulb164. Hi just had a read of this thread. Would you mind clarifying the system a little. I understand when to make the bet but am unsure of how to calculate the + -. Is it to do with how many goals above or below a game was U O 2.5? So for example a 3 goal game would be+0.5. a 1 goal game would be -2.5
Delboy99
Sire
..... you might have a little wait to get an answer as
paulb164 has not been around since April 14th and does not currently seem to be posting. 
paulb164
Colt
Aha !!!
I'll try to dig out the link to the source which will tell you all about the plan in the next day or so.
There are tons of these systems out there if you look... a lot in my opinion are based in some fact, but I always think a trial and exploring the system through the trial itself often yields various methods to make it profitable, as I found with this one with a simple odds filter.
I'll try to dig out the link to the source which will tell you all about the plan in the next day or so.
There are tons of these systems out there if you look... a lot in my opinion are based in some fact, but I always think a trial and exploring the system through the trial itself often yields various methods to make it profitable, as I found with this one with a simple odds filter.
legsdiamond5
Yearling
I just read this thread took me ages(I'm old with bins) TOP DRAW stuff Paulb164 as I'm sure everyone knows the premier league starts and there average to date is 2.72 19/20 I been thinking after the weird(no fans?) home advantage results in Germany and NO form to go on goals is only way to go for me, your little system looks perfecto cos La Liga starts ain't got anyone else's G.A yet as I only bet on the top 5 + our 3 leagues Italy coming back as well with mostly all players being back I had 2 bets since Germany started both at HT 0-0 Dortmund 1W 1L (still angry that the keeper making that mental save at 1-0 grrrr how he got across I don't kin no must of watched Banksy against Pele) the 10 games we have left looks good for trading goals and your format cheers for the read
Shauno
Yearling
Mark O'Haire did a comparison of MD1-MD25 in Bundesliga & MD26-MD30 & although there's only a small set of stats to go on, Home wins are down nearly 50% since the restart. Also, this doesn't take into account how many were home favs, but is does make you second guess any selections.
I think you are right in concentrating on goals markets, as from the stats so far, these have stayed almost the same.
Although I will be taking them easy. As seasons grow to a close & the important places are settled, teams lose the incentive.
Also, once important final positions are confirmed (i.e. Liverpool), what's to stop teams from resting players ready for the probable short break before the start of next season.
Hope this makes sense
paulb164
Colt
I have avoided betting on the football games after the covid restart as the leagues have essentially reverted to as if it is the start of the new season again. I mean that all team players have had that time off to recover fatigue, injuries, etc and are starting from a level start-of-the-season playing field again. In my opinion, this will affect home advantage (if there is such a thing in a ground without supporters ?) and the ability for favourites to take advantage of strength in depth as the season progresses. I still would expect that the good teams to do well with their better quality players, but also that they are playing rested, full squad opposition so don't expect the faves to get their own way as much as before the covid break.
As a personal rule of thumb, I never bet on games unless I have 25% of the league immediately played beforehand to get any meaningful stats from, so I'll be taking a break from football betting it looks like until the new season is here (or just in-play betting using the playing stats to influence my betting decisions when I can be bothered at the mo - which nearly always will be goal-based betting)
paulb164
Colt
Original link for the internet system is;
www.online-betting.me.uk
When I first saw it I thought it had potential as a base system, and was reasonably certain it was a system I could tinker with to improve it
online-betting.me.uk - online betting Resources and Information.
online-betting.me.uk is your first and best source for all of the information you’re looking for. From general topics to more of what you would expect to find here, online-betting.me.uk has it all. We hope you find what you are searching for!
www.online-betting.me.uk
When I first saw it I thought it had potential as a base system, and was reasonably certain it was a system I could tinker with to improve it
spreadsheetbettor
Yearling
paulb164 . Thank you for taking the time to respond to this and to look up the link.One of the reasons I asked was because I wanted to see how well I could automate the selections... The attached is my attempt at that. The system is semi automated as you will still have to enter the fixtures for forthcoming matches but everything is calculated automatically for you. In Overview column AN represents the point score for the last 4 games, AO represents the point score for the last 6 games. If you use this to backtest, fixtures are already inputted along with everything else.
I backtested the data for L1 and L2 18 and 19. Whilst the strategy wasn't profitable for these leagues it was close enough that I am going to examine it further, combining with different variables, across more leagues and looking at different angles.
If anybody wants to use the file--> sheet data- allows you to choose the league and the year. If you want to use if for future fixtures go to overview and type in 1000 in cell A1. Otherwise A1 represents the matchday number for the season.
To quickly backtest (takes 1- 2min). Ensure that rows 1-7 are identical on overview and Backtested data and then run the macro "copyfromoverview". This macro will copy the overview page for the entire season from A to DZ, the seasons data will appear in the sheet Backtested data.
The data is automatically downloaded from Football Betting | Football Results | Free Bets | Betting Odds
EDIT For future fixtures, in overview Make A1 a 1000 and then put the fixtures in column C andD on the fixtures list.
EDIT Now attached is a picture of this weekends German Bundesliga 1
Attachments
Last edited: