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Ones To Watch

tacker

Mare
because its only boosting form if they race over the sameish conditions Arigato has just won on soft ground, Maydanny beat it on firm ground but we don't know if Maydanny would beat Arigato on soft ground
Not sure if i agree but i do take your point.
 

Larry

Mare
T tacker taking your point to the nth degree Enable beat Waldgeist over 12f on good ground, also beat him on good to soft ground but she lost to him on very soft ground, your logic says Enable would never lose to Waldgeist regardless of ground conditions
 

tacker

Mare
everyone is allowed an opinion, & although you disagree can you say with certainty that MAYDANNY would beat ARIGATO on soft ground
Depends how soft but if you mean off level weights on raceable ground then very much so, i'll guess MAYDANNY will be dropped a pound to 89 and ARIGATO will get about 6lb so might be 85 either way DANNY will get better.
 

Bertie123

Yearling
MUMS TIPPLE tomorrow is top rated (130) weight adjusted to 10stone on my figures. My base time and ability rating for this horse is (116) OR (113).
it is a few lbs in front of PIERRE LAPPIN (126) and GOLDEN HORDE (128) and although GOLDEN HORDE was only Btn a neck in the MIDDLE PARK last year, MUMS TIPPLE was found lame. It was 3/1 for that race and GOLDEN HORDE was 16/1. On breeding it should act on soft. Forget his Guineas run as he didn’t like the undulations at Newmarket will be much happier back sprinting and also won at Ascot last year. Currently 15 on Betfair. It is of course a very competitive sprint but I am happy with this at the price.

Also couple of smart 2yr olds Joint top rated on my figures (88 ). EYE OF HEAVEN and THE LIR JET but half the field are smart so it will be a good watching race. Have a good day.
 

Bertie123

Yearling
everyone is allowed an opinion, & although you disagree can you say with certainty that MAYDANNY would beat ARIGATO on soft ground
Yes it would, It was beaten last year .75 length on Heavy ground and its Grandfather was Effissio a soft ground specialist. I will be amazed if the horse is dropped a lb as it “won” the race on the far side. I will have done my ratings by Saturday and It will be interesting to see my time/ability rating fir this race.
 

tacker

Mare
MUMS TIPPLE tomorrow is top rated (130) weight adjusted to 10stone on my figures. My base time and ability rating for this horse is (116) OR (113).
it is a few lbs in front of PIERRE LAPPIN (126) and GOLDEN HORDE (128) and although GOLDEN HORDE was only Btn a neck in the MIDDLE PARK last year, MUMS TIPPLE was found lame. It was 3/1 for that race and GOLDEN HORDE was 16/1. On breeding it should act on soft. Forget his Guineas run as he didn’t like the undulations at Newmarket will be much happier back sprinting and also won at Ascot last year. Currently 15 on Betfair. It is of course a very competitive sprint but I am happy with this at the price.

Also couple of smart 2yr olds Joint top rated on my figures (88 ). EYE OF HEAVEN and THE LIR JET but half the field are smart so it will be a good watching race. Have a good day.
I wonder now if the ground as gone against MUMS TIPPLE but you never know until they try, LOPE Y DE FENDADEZ brings classic form to the table after a week and adds to the iffs and buts about many horses running this week My fancy is PIEERE LAPPIN who might be top class based on 2 impressive wins at two, I seem to be always tipping varian horses but he is in good form.
gl
 

Bertie123

Yearling
I wonder now if the ground as gone against MUMS TIPPLE but you never know until they try, LOPE Y DE FENDADEZ brings classic form to the table after a week and adds to the iffs and buts about many horses running this week My fancy is PIEERE LAPPIN who might be top class based on 2 impressive wins at two, I seem to be always tipping varian horses but he is in good form.
gl
Yes I agree. I backed KHALOOSY at 9/1 last night and they backed it off the boards. Although I rarely bet in handicaps I have tried to find unexposed lightly raced 2 year olds running in a handicap for the first time at 3. HUKUM yesterday was selected like this. I am going to continue with this method as it seems quite productive at the mo.lol. I will still use my ratings for non handicaps. Have a good day tomorrow and PIERRE must go well it’s not too far off my top 3 or 4 and looks a smart sort. and the stable have come on with a bang. Have a peek at QAADER in the Coventry on Saturday. I have this top rated and it’s win was very impressive. Lots of smart ones in there though Not least Admiral Nelson.
 

Bertie123

Yearling
I wonder now if the ground as gone against MUMS TIPPLE but you never know until they try, LOPE Y DE FENDADEZ brings classic form to the table after a week and adds to the iffs and buts about many horses running this week My fancy is PIEERE LAPPIN who might be top class based on 2 impressive wins at two, I seem to be always tipping varian horses but he is in good form.
gl
I don't know about the ground re MUMS TIPPLE but what Sean Levy was doing going off at such a rate beggars belief. Its lucky it stayed 3 furlongs without collapsing in heap. Still my second top rated won. Golden Horde although I didn't have a saver on. I had a good day with DANDALLA clear top at 9/1 and The Lir Jet joint top at 5/1. I didn't do the double as I usually find it hard enough to get one winner never mind 2. Tomorrow I have already mentioned QAADER in the Coventry but on its AW rating TALBOT is top and is 12/1 at the mo. Of course the problem is that some of these 2yolds have had an "easy" FTO like ADMIRAL NELSON who coasted in and hasn't recorded a decent time, but there's no value to be had with it now. We'll see.
 

Bertie123

Yearling
Here are a couple of fliers for the notebook.

PURE BEAUTY 84 (.19) The first figure is a weight free time figure to a 100 base and the second figure is a Pace figure. This was a smart performance and with a top yard.
05Jun20Newmarket row C5MdF 4K 7f G/F 9-10 1/9 by 2L Lawahed 9-09/2P Cosgrave—

LYZBETH 94(.08) The first figure is a weight free time figure to 100 base and the second figure is a Pace figure. The lower the Pace figure the faster. This horse was in and out last year running mainly over 7f. This was also a good performance in a Listed race although the analysis suggested it was a weak Listed race . But the clock doesn’t lie, and it was run at a fast pace confirmed by the time and pace figures. Looks set for a good season.

14Jun20Goodwood C1L 17K 6f 9-0 1/9 by 1L Bungee Jump 9-04/1O Murphy
 

Bertie123

Yearling
One to watch for the future and certainly tomorrow is PURE BEAUTY. 4 yr old but only raced once and hacked up in a very good time. I have it rated as (87) on time and ability and runs off (89) for tomorrows race with weight adjustments including a 7lb penalty for his win. It is running at Newmarket 4:25 taking on 3 year olds and I would think they have a fair old task to beat this. However with the 3 year old WFA (10lbs) plus PURE BEAUTY'S penalty, AWARD SCHEME of William Haggas gets within 3 lbs on my ratings. (86) I don't know the price but with Frankie up it will be short but I will be disappointed if it doesn't do the business.
Interestingly DREAMLOPER is running in the 2:55 at Doncaster today, and was beaten 3.75 lengths by PURE BEAUTY at Newmarket so this will give us some idea of the value of the form for the Newmarket race.
 
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Bertie123

Yearling
DREAMLOPER ran very well finishing a very close up 3rd. Btn .75 and a nk behind The winner MAGICAL MORNING who I think could be pretty smart running off an OR of (92). Sort of franks the running of PURE BEAUTY . As predicted PURE BEAUTY is short tomorrow, 11/8 and although I think it is a smart horse it’s a bit too tight for me. Of course it’s great when you find one that gets overlooked in the market and I think that’s where the figures come into their own. They are few and far between though so sometimes patience is the game. I will probably do a brief post in the morning after going through the cards to see if we can find one at a decent price tomorrow.
 

Bertie123

Yearling
2:40 Newmarket Criterion Stakes Grp 3. Vale of Kent has been well backed after its very good run in the Hunt Cup (97.04) and Limato (97.02) obvious chance after winning last year but I think there is a possible improver in the field Varians TURJOMAAN this ran a very good race against Duke of Hazzard last year earning a fast (96.02) in an 8 furlong Grp 3. It has won twice over 7f and its first run this year was a no no in the Queen Anne Grp 1 so would forget that. This is more it’s level. At 11/1 it has to be overpriced As long as the ground doesn’t change too much at Newmarket
 

Bertie123

Yearling
FAMILLE ROSE (105) my rating. is entered up Friday at Haydock and Chepstow. I would think Haydock will be the call as Andrea Atzeni has been booked for the Haydock race, She could well have won the maiden she ran in being blocked just before the final furlong but quickened up well. Beaten 1/2 length behind ISABELLA GILES (106) a Clive Cox 2Yold. The fourth horse Chicca Bella has come out and won a maiden by 6.5 lengths although probably didn’t beat much it has sort of franked the form. The time of the Leicester race was pretty good. My ratings would have a Grp 1 performer around the (120+ ) mark and listed anywhere upwards of (110) so I am expecting a big run from FAMILLE ROSE Although it looks like a pretty good maiden with entries from Hannon Cox Beckett Charlton and Godolphin but the final decs will be another couple of days. We will see. Hope you are all well. Post again soon.
 

Bertie123

Yearling
I don't usually bet in races of 12 furlongs , as I feel my time and ability ratings are better suited to distances up to 8f. However because its Derby day tomorrow, here are the top 4 .
KAMEKO 111
ENGLISH KING 108
HIGHLAND CHIEF 106
RUSSIAN EMPEROR 100
The first two are the first and second favourites, so nothing new there but the interesting one is HIGHLAND CHIEF who ran and won a handicap first time out this season at Ascot. Acts on soft and ran PINATUBO to 4.5 lengths last year when PINATUBO was at his peak. It's 13.00 on Betfair. It looks like the winner will come from the first two probably, and although KAMEKO's Guineas was only average it is still Grp 1 form. Of course there could well be a rapidly improving underexposed one, but it is always a great race to watch anyway.
 

Outlander

Gelding
O Outlander Firstly your humility is to be admired. None of us has the answer as this rating business is subjective apart from time which I guess is the absolute. I experimented with my Raw time figures but a raw time figure doesn't tell you anything more than how fast the race was run, which in itself lacks that very important factor : class. I have gone back to my time and ability ratings and they are now showing positive returns.
As I said, I rarely bet in handicaps as finding one "well in" doesn't happen all that often as the Official Handicapper who I have the greatest respect for, don't usually make many mistakes. Its difficult for them to assess whether a horse has run to its ability or waiting for another day. This doesn't happen too much in non handicap races but might do if a trainer is looking for a lowly mark. They run it over the wrong trip, unsuitable going etc. Did I say Sir Mark Prescott? Well, you know what I mean. Handicap genius?

By confining my betting to mainly non handicaps the weight ranges are negligible and the race is usually won by the horse with the best ability. If I can tie in an ability rating with a time figure it gives me a good basis from which to start.

So. As you quite rightly say, Weight is a factor, but I look at it like this. If a horse is rated say 80, it will be assessed by the official handicapper as an 80 rated horse no matter what race it competes in. Its weight will be allocated by the conditions of the race. Higher class, lower weight and vice versa. In a handicap , when its mark is re-assesed it will be re handicapped from that figure of 80 and NOT the weight it was carrying. The weights may have been raised overnight by 7lbs but the horse is still an 80 rated horse. If it won well by say 2 lengths in a 6f race it might be raised say 6 or 7 lbs. so its new rating would be 86. But if it carried 9:10 it's rating wouldn't be 96 , which is what speed handicappers have to do when using weight in their ratings as they are usually working to a base of a horse rated 100 carrying 9stone. The official handicapper will then rate the rest of the field behind the winner with weight adjustments from the winners new rating and subjective opinion from the handicapper. I am sure you are aware of this but it leads me on to my reasoning behind my ratings.

I know Time handicappers who are way more experienced than me say that speed figures and official figures are not comparable as obviously speed figures are based on time. But then if thats the case why do they use say 3.5lbs per length for 5 furlongs, 3lbs for 6f etc. They should be calculating their ratings on lengths per second and weight shouldn't have anything to do with it. Admittedly there needs to be some adjustment on the lengths per second as a horse can't run 5 f speed for 8f. But there are many ways of calculating this. Some Speed handicappers adjust everything to 8f and some to 5f which I believe Timeform do.

Now, if you rate a race purely on time it is misleading, as I have found out to my cost, as this 80 rated horse may well run within a few fifths of a second to standard, in a very poor race, but its final time doesn't reflect the Class of the race. So do you take that at face value? I did for years without success. Class is of course extremely important. So I always wanted to be able to calculate a rating that was comparable to the OR if I could. I could then look at my figures and see if a horse was improving or running to its Official Rating

A few years ago I read an article somewhere by a previous employee of Timeform who stated that pure time figures by themselves were really of limited use and it was very important and essential to have an ability/form rating which would reflect "class". (Hence Time-Form)

I could have subscribed to Timeform, but where's the fun in that !

So I set about trying to come up with something of my own that would give me this combination. It is a very simple formula and no doubt the purists will think it doesn't make sense but it works for me. My base rating is not 100 but an ability rating I use based on "form" and "class". This is not the Official Rating . My speed rating is based purely on lengths per second with adjustments for different distances , GA, and deducted or added to my ability rating depending if the time the horse ran either was fast or slow. The figure for the winner is put into My Ratings page and calculated automatically although I change the lbs per length to coincide with the official scale. I do not make any adjustment for weight from the winner once I have my rating. It is what it is, whether it carried 9 stone or 10 stone. I understand that there will be a lot of disagreement suggesting it is illogical and doesn't make sense and has to be weight adjusted but I am only doing what the Official Handicapper does. Initialy. The rest of the field are rated with weight adjustment from the winners RATING and weight carried. There will be little weight adjustment as the races are all non handicaps.

I also only rate up to 8f and do not bother with NH. To me any race over 8f is more about stamina and ability rather than "time". I don't get involved with NH for various reasons, and of course you are going to get fast times at big meetings like Cheltenham but egg and spoon races at somewhere like Market Rasen are a waste of time for Speed rating assessment, but thats only my opinion and I am sure there are many speed handicappers who love NH.

I am pretty confident now that if I rate a horse to be 75 it won't be too far away from the OR. If the OR for that same horse is 69. it will be certainly worth looking at for betting purposes. I have a pure speed figure adjusted for distance plus a good ability rating. I hope you enjoy the read but of course this is only my way of rating a race. There are countless others, many better and lots worse.
B Bertie123 on the subject of our brief discussion on factoring weight into speed figures or not I have done a study of my ratings with and without weight over the last 3 weeks or so and I am now 100% in the no weight camp, I will never factor in weight into my figures ever again , the results are noticeably better, the no weight ratings throw up many many more winners , the best results I’ve had since I started over a year ago . I still don’t understand why ignoring weight is the best approach it makes no sense to me.
 

Bertie123

Yearling
O Outlander
You might need to tell me how you calculate your figures!! 😆 if you are getting all these winners!!

I think as you suggested in an earlier post or someone did, that working out lbs per length or seconds per length you get a different length for the horse.
I used to bet a lot in Handicaps and would always go for the top weighted horse if I was after a decider. Class is always at the top of handicaps and how can anyone be so precise as to say well, it can’t give that other one 7lbs. Well most of the time they can. I would like to see a scientific study that categorically states that over 8f, 2 lbs slows a horse down by a length.
Pure time figures based on 5 Lengths per second and using 3.5 points per length over 5f 3 lengths per second over 6f etc to me seems logical. A second has to count for more at shorter distances and these figures are basically what the BHA handicapper uses. However they use these figures as lbs, and I use them as points per length.

I know that most standard times are based on a horse rated 100 carrying 9 stone. I wouldn’t have the energy to start trying to set about formulating my own standards. I use the RP . I am sure that you and lots of posters may well do their own standard times but how much more accurate and how much difference do they make to final ratings. A fast time is a fast time. I understand why It would seem correct to adjust for weight as the standards are supposed to be this 100 rated horse carrying 9 stone And therefore the calculations are turned into lbs. The problem you have with this method is that because you have turned the figure into lbs if the horse carries 9:7 you have to add 7 (lbs) to its rating. Or if it carries 8:7 you deduct 7lbs. This has to be an assumption. How do you know it would have run 7 lbs faster because it carried 7 lbs more Or 7lbs slower if it carried less weight. I understand you have to do this to bring all horses to 9 Stone
Its really interesting to take a horse and calculate its speed ratings with and without weight and see how more evenly spread the weight free figures are.( I note you have done this with positive results)

I am not for once stating that how I calculate my figures are the light the way and the truth but, for the little impact I believe weight has on a horse I am happy to forego the weight adjustments. In NH I would think it would be more meaningful that weight would tell given the distances they run .

At the end of the day though we are all seeking something that will give us an “edge” to try and make our racing pay. As there is no such thing as a certainty we are all dedicated to believing that speed is the answer.


















per second ov

x
 

Outlander

Gelding
B Bertie123
You might need to tell me how you calculate your figures!! 😆 if you are getting all these winners!!

i mean in comparison to the weighted ratings I’ve been compiling, they just seem to have more correlation to the results and the market. They just make more sense looking at them before and after the race. I don’t think a gateway to untold riches but they have steered me in the right direction .

I am sure that you and lots of posters may well do their own standard times but how much more accurate and how much difference do they make to final ratings.

I think the standards make a massive difference to the ratings you can put different sets of standards and get completely different ratings out the other end, i‘m 100% convinced if you get your standards right(more permutations than winning the lottery and just as difficult) and your calculations right you will make money from speed figures.
There are lots of races where speed figures are never going to find the winner such as first time out winners, horses that have been tailed off on there first run then turn inside out there are plenty of them every week.
Sometimes a course bias can give a result your ratings are not going to come close to predicting.
But in general if you get everything right you will have a guide you can be confident in.
Ive been trying over a year and still not saying I’ve got there yet it feel a bit closer after ignoring weight.
 

tacker

Mare
I know we have discussed "weights and times" before on here but i'm unable to get past what ratings and handicapping is all about, if a horse bolts up in a dcent time stick another stone on it's back to slow it down, if that simple logic is wrong then the whole handicapping system is wrong and has been for a very long time.
 

Outlander

Gelding
I know we have discussed "weights and times" before on here but i'm unable to get past what ratings and handicapping is all about, if a horse bolts up in a dcent time stick another stone on it's back to slow it down, if that simple logic is wrong then the whole handicapping system is wrong and has been for a very long time.
I totally agree but judging by the fact there are regular odds on shots and 100/1 shots in handicaps every day and those races most of the time the camera man can’t get more than a couple of horses in the finish because they are strung out over 50 lengths down the course, when they are all theoretically supposed to have equal chance of winning and be weighted to finish together. Then you could make an argument that the whole handicap system is wrong quite easily.
 
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