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Ones To Watch

Outlander

Gelding
Are you saying that going up a grade or class slows a horse down ?
No I’m saying it is what it is but it’s now racing against better horses, if in the same form it will run just as fast but there are much increased chances that an opponent will run faster.
A horse can win a race get raised 14lb be raised in class and actually carry less physical weight in its next races, a horse can go up 50 lb in 5 races but carry exactly 9st in each race, that’s entirely possible so that 50lb isn’t a 50lb burden on its back, it’s the continual raise in class that it has to contend with until it reaches its limit.
 

tacker

Mare
No I’m saying it is what it is but it’s now racing against better horses, if in the same form it will run just as fast but there are much increased chances that an opponent will run faster.
A horse can win a race get raised 14lb be raised in class and actually carry less physical weight in its next races, a horse can go up 50 lb in 5 races but carry exactly 9st in each race, that’s entirely possible so that 50lb isn’t a 50lb burden on its back, it’s the continual raise in class that it has to contend with until it reaches its limit.
Basically i agree with that and it will be interesting to see how things go.
 

Bertie123

Yearling
I know we have discussed "weights and times" before on here but i'm unable to get past what ratings and handicapping is all about, if a horse bolts up in a dcent time stick another stone on it's back to slow it down, if that simple logic is wrong then the whole handicapping system is wrong and has been for a very long time.
Well of course an extra stone must slow it down I guess. But by how much ? And does it slow it down as much over 5f as it would over 12 f. Probably not. Depending on the class of race it runs in the extra stone might not slow it down enough? Weight Must eventually slow a horse down. I have no argument with that. But by how much? How much weight will slow it down by how many lengths ? And what about WFA. A 2 year old can have a rating of 60 and suddenly become a 94 rated horse early in the season. There would be a better way to “ handicap” horses by prize money for instance. A horse can’t compete at a higher level until its won a certain amount of money. Perhaps then horses would run more consistently ,as they would have to be trying , whereas in current handicaps at least half the field are there to get their handicap mark reduced. But there wouldn’t be a race called a Handicap . Also note that BHA officials and Trainers refer to a horses “mark” and not the weight it has to carry. It could carry 9:10 and be well in or 8:7 and have no chance.
well it’s an interesting subject and we all have differing opinions which is what Forums are all about. We can all take something from all the posts and even if we disregard them all at least they may have made us think differently which has to be a good thing.
 
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Bertie123

Yearling
B Bertie123


i mean in comparison to the weighted ratings I’ve been compiling, they just seem to have more correlation to the results and the market. They just make more sense looking at them before and after the race. I don’t think a gateway to untold riches but they have steered me in the right direction .



I think the standards make a massive difference to the ratings you can put different sets of standards and get completely different ratings out the other end, i‘m 100% convinced if you get your standards right(more permutations than winning the lottery and just as difficult) and your calculations right you will make money from speed figures.
There are lots of races where speed figures are never going to find the winner such as first time out winners, horses that have been tailed off on there first run then turn inside out there are plenty of them every week.
Sometimes a course bias can give a result your ratings are not going to come close to predicting.
But in general if you get everything right you will have a guide you can be confident in.
Ive been trying over a year and still not saying I’ve got there yet it feel a bit closer after ignoring weight.
Yes I agree and I also think if you concentrate on limited races and age groups and class of race you will have a better chance of the figures actually becoming very useful. Royal Ascot non handicaps up to a mile for 2 and 3 year olds proved quite lucrative for me. Interestingly The Lir Jet was joint top on my ability and time ratings but on raw speed it was well clear. I know Timeform suggest an ability rating is important to use with a time rating but I have come to the conclusion that an ability rating must give a false rating if you are looking at a performance based on Time. For instance on time and ability KAMEKO earned a massive 122 for its Guineas win yet on weight free speed to a base of 100 was a 97. One would have thought for a Guineas it should at least have been 100+ . Battaash was 111 weight free. Awesome.
 
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Outlander

Gelding
No I’m saying it is what it is but it’s now racing against better horses, if in the same form it will run just as fast but there are much increased chances that an opponent will run faster.
A horse can win a race get raised 14lb be raised in class and actually carry less physical weight in its next races, a horse can go up 50 lb in 5 races but carry exactly 9st in each race, that’s entirely possible so that 50lb isn’t a 50lb burden on its back, it’s the continual raise in class that it has to contend with until it reaches its limit.
I don’t mean all this class2 class4 stuff that’s just a guide , there are class 2 horses running Is class 4 races all the time, I mean class as in a combination of factors such as the ratings of the participants the class of the typical race of that nature over a certain course, not easy to put a number on there are novice races class4 that can contain real class 1 horses just starting off there careers, it’s hard to quantify the class of a race it has a lot of factors but that I believe it is the key not the weights and measures, but to be honest I would have scoffed at anyone saying this a month ago.
Well of course an extra stone must slow it down I guess. But by how much ? And does it slow it down as much over 5f as it would over 12 f. Probably not. Depending on the class of race it runs in the extra stone might not slow it down enough? Weight Must eventually slow a horse down. I have no argument with that. But by how much? How much weight will slow it down by how many lengths ? And what about WFA. A 2 year old can have a rating of 60 and suddenly become a 94 rated horse early in the season. There would be a better way to “ handicap” horses by prize money for instance. A horse can’t compete at a higher level until its won a certain amount of money. Perhaps then horses would run more consistently ,as they would have to be trying , whereas in current handicaps at least half the field are there to get their handicap mark reduced. But there wouldn’t be a race called a Handicap . Also note that BHA officials and Trainers refer to a horses “mark” and not the weight it has to carry. It could carry 9:10 and be well in or 8:7 and have no chance.
well it’s an interesting subject and we all have differing opinions which is what Forums are all about. We can all take something from all the posts and even if we disregard them all at least they may have made us think differently which has to be a good thing.
we must stop thinking of a horse going up 14lb in the handicap as going up 14lb in weight, look at Montatham today he won off BHA 89 off 132lb weight at Newmarket. I remember saying on the compiling speed figures thread that he should go up to 103 for that performance, he went up to 97 at Ascot and I pressed the back button with confidence, Although going up 8 lb in the long handicap he actually carried only 124lb at Ascot because the class of the race was higher, he was beat probably the draw rather than the class rise that beat him, today he runs off even higher BHA of 100 and wins against the horse that beat him at Ascot , so he loses off 97 but wins off 100 he carried 129lbs this time so it could be argued the race was a lower class than Ascot.
So he’s gone up 11lb but no weight has stopped him in fact hes carried less weight than he did at Newmarket, it’s just he’s moving up in class so far he’s proved up to it.
Next time he runs it could be off 105 in a better race, he might carry less weight than today the weight won’t slow him down nothing will slow him down if he’s in the same form, he will either win because he can handle the class of the opposition or it will be a step too far up the class ladder, either way what has weight got to do with it,
 

tacker

Mare
I'm thinking this is getting very confusing but lets try another scenario, you run a horse over a mile at wolves solo at an even pace etc .
A week later you do the same thing but this time he's carrying another 2 stone, regardless of what the times actually are you have believe that he will run slower carrying the extra weight or logic goes out of the window.
 

Outlander

Gelding
I'm thinking this is getting very confusing but lets try another scenario, you run a horse over a mile at wolves solo at an even pace etc .
A week later you do the same thing but this time he's carrying another 2 stone, regardless of what the times actually are you have believe that he will run slower carrying the extra weight or logic goes out of the window.
Yes probably but these horse are not carrying extra weight, this is the point they get raised 14lb by the BHA but the weight doesn’t necessarily go up at all infact in most races the weights are roughly the same so nothing very much is slowing the horse down at all , the only thing that is changing by raising a horse 14lb in the handicap is the class of its next race, because it might very well be carrying less physical weight and why would it be slowed down,
 

Outlander

Gelding
Yes probably but these horse are not carrying extra weight, this is the point they get raised 14lb by the BHA but the weight doesn’t necessarily go up at all infact in most races the weights are roughly the same so nothing very much is slowing the horse down at all , the only thing that is changing by raising a horse 14lb in the handicap is the class of its next race, because it might very well be carrying less physical weight and why would it be slowed down,
Montatham raised 8lb from Newmarket to Ascot but carried 8lb less , how is weight going to slow the horse down how is the 8lb the BHA raised it possibly going to slow it down when it is carrying less physical weight, it’s not going to slow it down at all but it’s going to be running in a better race almost certainly and with that comes opposition that could be just as fast or faster.
 

tacker

Mare
Yes probably but these horse are not carrying extra weight, this is the point they get raised 14lb by the BHA but the weight doesn’t necessarily go up at all infact in most races the weights are roughly the same so nothing very much is slowing the horse down at all , the only thing that is changing by raising a horse 14lb in the handicap is the class of its next race, because it might very well be carrying less physical weight and why would it be slowed down,
I thought we had established already that a horse can run at the same pace carrying the same weight regardless of class but obviously he will be racing against better horses , class6 handicaps must be slower than class 2.
 

tacker

Mare
Montatham raised 8lb from Newmarket to Ascot but carried 8lb less , how is weight going to slow the horse down how is the 8lb the BHA raised it possibly going to slow it down when it is carrying less physical weight, it’s not going to slow it down at all but it’s going to be running in a better race almost certainly and with that comes opposition that could be just as fast or faster.
You can't look at individual examples because so many different factors are involved , that's why i say it's the principle of the thing that matters, weight slows you down. Next time you go on a pub crawl try carrying a handbag full of bricks, nightmare.........i imagine.
 

Outlander

Gelding
I thought we had established already that a horse can run at the same pace carrying the same weight regardless of class but obviously he will be racing against better horses , class6 handicaps must be slower than class 2.
That’s exactly what I’m saying , forget this class 2 class 6 nonsense , each race has a class that is hard to quantify certain class 4 races could be many levels above other class 4 races, in all these races the weights are nearly all the same apart from amateur races so basically the only reason a horses will do well is if it’s in a class of race that is is comfortable in they could have 10st or 9st it doesn’t matter it’s who is the fastest horse in the field.
i now believe we should be looking for the fastest horse in the race that will be the horse that has the class to most likely win, I spent years looking for lower class horses that might win higher class races because they are getting a bit of weight off the classier horses in the race, but it doesn’t happen often , the classiest horse on the day usually wins, although it happens its not common for an inferior horse to win a race just because he is getting weight from a superior horse, horses do win with lower weights but this is usually horse that are moving through the classes and have more to give or in races where the superior horses are out of form and probably wouldn’t have won if they weren’t giving away weight anyway.
 

Outlander

Gelding
You can't look at individual examples because so many different factors are involved , that's why i say it's the principle of the thing that matters, weight slows you down. Next time you go on a pub crawl try carrying a handbag full of bricks, nightmare.........i imagine.
Yes but only physical weight will slow you down, not 14lb on a scale that doesn’t even mean you have to carry 14lb more at all in your next race in fact you may carry less
 

tacker

Mare
Yes but only physical weight will slow you down, not 14lb on a scale that doesn’t even mean you have to carry 14lb more at all in your next race in fact you may carry less
I think maybe you keep mixing up "slowing down" and "stop from winning" but i'm enjoying your enthusiasm, let me know how you get on.
good luck.
 

Bertie123

Yearling
Heres a few updates . According to my ratings based on time/class
Love recorded a 116 in the Guineas and a 115 in the Oaks
Serpantime 120 in the Derby. No fluke there. He rode the others to sleep I thought.
Art Power still performing well 92 113 112
A'Ali won the Grp 3 Sprint Stakes at Sandown recording a 112
Alpine Star 120 is going to take some beating this season.
Golden Horde 117 Smart sprinter
Some good races to come later this week and I will try and post some good ones on the figures the evening before the race.
 

Bertie123

Yearling
The Acomb Stakes at York 2:15 on Wednesday has some smart types as would be expected. Here are my adjusted time and ability ratings for the top 5

Fev Rover 109
Rhythm Master. 102
Jumby. 98
Cloudbridge. 94
Dhahabi. 92
Rhoscolyn. 91

These are not the final Decs but Fev Rover has already won in Listed class and has run against some smart types. Trained by Richard Fahey who won the race last year. I would think it might be around 5/2 which is a little short for such a race of unexposed 2 yr olds but sure to go well.
 
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