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Ones To Watch

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Bertie123

Yearling
GOOD EFFORT is a rapidly improving sprinter. My last three time ratings are :

Lingfield 1st Feb 6 F. 106
Newcastle 8th January 5 F. 101
Deauville 14th December 6.5 F. 102

KACHY was withdrawn from the Lingfield race and was an odds on hot pot as he won the race the previous year. (109) He went on to win the Final of the series, the Champion AW Sprint in April. I rated him (118) for that. This high rating was confirmed when KACHY went on to record a (117 ) when beaten 2.5 lengths by BLUE POINT (125) in the Grp 1 Golden Jubilee Stakes at Ascot last June (Turf ) Whether KACHY will run again this year is not known at this stage but if he is in the same form as last year he will take some beating , particularly at Lingfield.

Definitely one to follow is also a rapidly improving 4 year old sprinter called ROULSTON STAR. This horse was sold to Simon Chrisford for £110,000 Guineas last year from Kevin Ryan, and first ran for Simon Chrisford at Meydan on January 20th in a very high class 16 runner Handicap worth 61K. I had it top rated in that race and rarely bet in Handicaps but I thought it had a very good chance of running a big race. It won quite easily, 7/1, (smug me!) and I now have it rated at (103) Its official mark is (98) at the moment but not sure when it will be re-assessed by the Official Handicapper. I am convinced this is a Stakes horse and possibly a Gap 3 performer by the way it travelled and quickened up. James Doyle gave it a peach of a ride. My Time ratings are pretty much comparable to the OR which I find helps me to confirm I am not too far out with my ratings.

It will be interesting to see how these two progress and I will post more as and when.
Good luck
Bertie 123
 
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Bertie123

Yearling
Don’t particularly like “tipping” or betting in Handicaps but on Thursday at Chelmsford 2:40. STORM OVER might well win this. He won last time out at Chelmsford easing up after a smart turn of foot. He was running off an OR rating of 83 and I rated that performance on time as 87+. His new OR is 87 but he has run well and won off higher ratings than this in the past.( April 16th 2019 ran to a (97) btn 1.25 lengths to CORINTHIAN KNIGHT (101) in a Class 3 Conditions event at Wolverhampton.) It’s generally better though to look at recent ratings although horses do have a tendency to suddenly produce a blast from the past! I have no idea what price it will be, probably Favourite but hopeful of
maybe 3/1 as it is a tight and quite competitive Handicap. Here are my weight adjusted ratings for the race.
STORM OVER. 103+
PRINCE OF ROME. 102
COMMANDER HAN 100
GRACIOUS JOHN. 100
ROCK ON BAILEYS. 100
WITH CAUTION. 100
MOHAAREB. 98
FIZZY FEET. 96
GAMGOOM. 93

Good luck
Bertie123
 
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Bertie123

Yearling
ROULSTON SCAR is running tomorrow at Meydan 4.15. It is a highly competitive Listed Handicap and has some smart performers running. Not least ANGEL ALEXANDER who recorded a very fast (111) in the Ayr Gold Cup last year which was a career best and 7lbs better than he had ever run before. Whether he will be up to that first time out I'm not sure but I am hopeful ROULSTON SCAR will have improved by at least 5lbs after his last race where he ran (103). Likely Favourite EKHTIYAAR I have at (111) from his latest winning race but the Going Allowance was a bit of a guessimate although his OR is 110 . I am expecting a big run from ROULSTON SCAR as he will be receiving 9lbs from EKHTIYAAR
 
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Bertie123

Yearling
ROULSTON SCAR Ran very well and looked the winner half a furlong out but got swamped. Still when it comes back to the UK it will be worth keeping a close eye out. STORM OVER was disappointing and I feel was probably outclassed by the winner who I found difficult to get a handle on a 9 year old coming over from Germany !, I will post some more horses over the next week or two and let’s hope we can find a winner at a good price.
 
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Bertie123

Yearling
ALMUFTI ran to a figure of (91+) according to my time ratings when it won a Class 2 Handicap at Lingfield on February 8th quickening up well. It’s official rating was 87. It has been re-assessed to 91 by the Official Handicapper so that confirms my Rating. Looks to be improving and it will be interesting to see where it goes next.
 
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Bertie123

Yearling
Just bringing the ratings up to date as I have been diverted recently . YOUNG FIRE won a Class 3 Handicap over 7f on the 5th Feb. That was after a 67 day break. It seems to run well for a few runs after a break and it has won on re-appearance in the past. It’s official mark has been raised to (92) I have it as (94) and it could be reaching its peak as it is now 5 years old And this is the highest rating it has achieved. I would be hopeful of a big run next time out, whether that’s soon or after a break. Trained by David O’Meara who knows the time of day.
 
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Bertie123

Yearling
Disappointing yesterday and seemed to be struggling from the off. Ah well today is another day and I am slightly puzzled re the 2:35 at Lingfield. PLANTATION is the Even money Favourite and won last time out. However, it was the slowest time of the day and as I base all my selections on a Time and Ability rating I can't possibly have it, even if it wins doing handsprings. My weight adjusted ratings are :
MONYA. 69
EMRAAN 66
ZHUKOVSKY 65
PLANTADREAM. 51
THAT'S A SHAME. 47

MONYA ran over 7f FTO and ran to a figure of (50) and then ran to (30) when dropped in trip. Today I believe she has the right trip of 8f and with her weight allowance and is top rated. She cost £425,000 so it will be disappointing if she can't nearly win this. Currently 7/1 on Betfair and for me is the value bet in the race. We'll see, as horses and ratings often make us look idiots!
 
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Bertie123

Yearling
Sad news about KACHY. YOUNG FIRE has been entered for a Class2 Handicap at Newcastle on Wednesday but the Decs are not in yet. I hope it runs, as I have this down as an improver and ahead of its handicap mark.
 
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Bertie123

Yearling
SKY COMMANDER trained by James Tate won very easily at Kempton on 5th December and I recorded a good time figure of (85). He has it entered in the Derby?? Little early for that but obviously holds it in some regard. It should be worth noting its next run particularly if it is over 8f.
 
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Bertie123

Yearling
NATIONAL ANTHEM won for the third time over 5f at Southwell on 24th Feb and is now OR (80). I have (84) and I think this is a massive improver as he has improved his rating each time he has ran. Certainly one to note at Southwell. Richard Hughes who was my favourite jockey is now turning out some smart sorts as a trainer and MAORI KNIGHT is going the right way. I had him at a lowly (64) from his first run as a 2yold at Newbury but in the context of his latest race he was well clear on the ratings. He was 5/2 the night before and I thought it was a massive price as he opened 11/8 and was backed off the boards to 8/11. Hacked up by 5 lengths but I don't think he really beat anything of note. (27th Feb Chelmsford Class 4 Maiden) He has a Derby entry so Hughsie must think quite highly of him. It will be interesting to see where he goes next.
 
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Bertie123

Yearling
I now have MAORI KNIGHT on (71) for his easy maiden win but surely will be in the (90’s) before the season is over. There was another very good winner over the weekend in Marco Botti’s MALOTRU This ran to my figures of (94) and (95) last year and easily won the Spring Cup Stakes Listed race at Lingfield on Saturday. It ran a very good race in last years Gimcrack Grp 2 last year over 6 but the step up to 7 and down in grade saw it scoot in. Definitely one to follow On both turf and AW.
 
T

tacker

Stallion
MAORI VENTURE.....I would be very surprised if he got a mark of 71 B Bertie123 based on his last 2 runs.
His doncaster run shows him in the mix with horses in the high 70s followed by yesterdays easy 5L win at odds on.
My best guess would be around the 80 mark but if you are correct about a future mare of 90s then it will certainly be of interest.
Good post by the way, nice idea.
 
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Bertie123

Yearling
tacker said:
MAORI VENTURE.....I would be very surprised if he got a mark of 71 B Bertie123 based on his last 2 runs.
His doncaster run shows him in the mix with horses in the high 70s followed by yesterdays easy 5L win at odds on.
My best guess would be around the 80 mark but if you are correct about a future mare of 90s then it will certainly be of interest.
Good post by the way, nice idea.
Click to expand...
Thank you tracker. Yes I agree with you. The (71) is for that particular race and not an overall rating. It will be interesting to see what the official handicapper‘s assessment will be but as you suggest must surely start off in the (80’s)
 
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Bertie123

Yearling
Just a little info Chesham. MAORI VENTURE was a jumper for Andrew Turnell and was born in 1976. We are looking at MAORI KNIGHT. I was a little confused too. Easily done .
 
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