My V.D.W betting Journey!
- Thread starter formtheory
- Start date
formtheory
Stallion
Understudy rubbish , crap day !
Chesham
Sire
don’t be hard on yourself
My only bet today . unexposed are always difficult to rule out
Spirited Style runs in the Newmrket 4.55
see
https://www.theukbettingforum.co.uk/XenForo/threads/sectional-times.183153/post-776834
Pedigree
Spirited Style (GB) is a bay filly foaled on March 25, 2022, bred by Godolphin (GB). She is trained by Charlie Appleby and owned by Godolphin. She has a Timeform Rating of 97P and an Adjusted Timeform Rating of 106P.
Pedigree Analysis
- Sire: Sea The Stars (IRE)
- Dam: Wild Illusion (GB)
- Broodmare Sire: Dubawi (IRE)
Dosage Profile: The Dosage Profile is 1-5-12-6-0, giving a Dosage Index of 1.00 and a Center of Distribution of +0.04.
- Dosage Profile:This profile indicates a good balance between speed and stamina. The "1-5-12-6-0" suggests a distribution of chefs-de-race that leans slightly towards stamina.
- 1 is the number of "Brilliant" chefs-de-race (speed).
- 5 is the number of "Intermediate" chefs-de-race (speed/stamina mix).
- 12 is the number of "Classic" chefs-de-race (stamina).
- 6 is the number of "Solid" chefs-de-race (stamina/staying).
- 0 is the number of "Professional" chefs-de-race (extreme stamina).
- Dosage Index (DI): A DI of 1.00 is considered balanced, with equal influence from speed and stamina-oriented ancestors.
- Center of Distribution (CD): A CD of +0.04 is very close to zero, which also points to a balanced pedigree in terms of speed versus stamina.
Nicking Analysis
The "nicking" of Sea The Stars (IRE) and Dubawi (IRE) mares is a highly successful cross.
- Total Foals: The combination of Sea The Stars and Dubawi mares has produced 59 foals of racing age.
- Starters: 40 (68%) of these foals have started in a race.
- Winners: 26 (44%) have won.
- Black-Type Winners (BW): 5 (8%) have been Black-Type winners, which is a strong percentage, indicating the cross produces high-quality racehorses.
- Average Earnings Index (AEI): The AEI for this cross is 1.88, which is well above the average of 1.00. This suggests that the foals from this cross earn significantly more than the average horse.
Female Tail Line
The female tail line, or "distaff line," of Spirited Style is notable.
- Dam: Wild Illusion (GB), a Group 1 winner at distances up to 1¼m, including the Nassau Stakes, Prix Marcel Boussac, and Prix de l'Opera. She stayed 1½m.
- Dam's Sibling: Wild Illusion is a sister to the high-class winner Yibir, who won up to 2m, including the Breeders' Cup Turf.
- Maternal Granddam: Rumh (GER), a Group 2 winner.
- Further back: The line traces to influential mares like Allegretta and Urban Sea, a prolific producer and the dam of both Galileo and Sea The Stars, making this a powerful and successful female family.
Race History and Timeform Comments
- May 9, 2025, Ascot: In her debut, Spirited Style finished 2nd of 10 in a C4 Maiden Stakes over 10f. She was slow out of the gate and ran green but finished strongly, taking second place late. The Timeform comment noted her potential, stating she "seems sure to progress and win races." Her TFR was 81+.
- May 22, 2025, Haydock: Spirited Style won her second start, a C4 Maiden Stakes over 10.2f. She led over 2f out and "stayed on well to draw clear final 1f," winning by 3½ lengths. The Timeform comment highlighted her confirmed promise and future potential, stating she "could well have put herself in the Ribblesdale picture now, likely to be suited by 1½m and having the scope for a lot better still." Her TFR improved to 105+.
formtheory
Stallion
DuckandDive
Mare
formtheoryDo you like using excel?
Reason I ask, is that I'm working on a basic excel input sheet that incorporates the VDW method. By using the Racing Post website data. It can cover AR/CR/Betting Forecast and produced a rating/tissue.
It would also include, what I call indicators, that look for confirmation of a good recent run looking at the TS and RPR in a similar way Pat Power used to.
It's not the holy grail, but could help laser focus in on key selections for further study.
One area I'm looking to include is how the AR is viewed. The main AR is still the same, but when looking at the LR. LBOR, LBTR (Last 3), I'm considering a way of assessing each run (in simple form) that gives an AR that looks at the placing and prize money in that specific race.
Example: In a race where all 6 runners ran in a six runner race in a £25,000 race, would score as follows.
Now, if you have different form-lines with different places for differing prize money, the AR could look summat like this. It can then be measured against the days race class too.
It's just a VDW simplistic way of assessing ability (AR).
I'll post up a race or two from yesterday (in true VDW style) and see how it measures up.
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formtheory
Stallion
Sounds very interesting
DuckandDive !
DuckandDive !
formtheory
Stallion
16:00 Redcar
I’m going to give Penfolds grange a chance after a great run at Chester from stall 15. The favourite is an obvious danger but 6/1 looks a good price.
Curragh 13:55 Empress Artemis comes out best 5/2 win.
Stratford 15:13 Sir Tivo 7/1 & Malystic 17/2
Both win
Good Luck today !
I’m going to give Penfolds grange a chance after a great run at Chester from stall 15. The favourite is an obvious danger but 6/1 looks a good price.
Curragh 13:55 Empress Artemis comes out best 5/2 win.
Stratford 15:13 Sir Tivo 7/1 & Malystic 17/2
Both win
Good Luck today !
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DuckandDive
Mare
Here's that pesky race from yesterday.
The reason one appeared on the short-list was due to the combination Ability/Consistency/Market when compared with the other runners. It then looked at the TS & RPR as Pat Power had done. Race Class wise it would have been a leap of faith.
A couple of runners looked up to Race Class, but failed due to their inconsistency and lack of confirmations elsewhere.
The rating is very basic. It's the total of the ranking of AR/CR/Betting Forecast. It can serve a purpose, but value is in the eye of the beholder...
The only other VDW related aspect not included is the use of a Speed Rating alongside for comparison.
The reason one appeared on the short-list was due to the combination Ability/Consistency/Market when compared with the other runners. It then looked at the TS & RPR as Pat Power had done. Race Class wise it would have been a leap of faith.
A couple of runners looked up to Race Class, but failed due to their inconsistency and lack of confirmations elsewhere.
The rating is very basic. It's the total of the ranking of AR/CR/Betting Forecast. It can serve a purpose, but value is in the eye of the beholder...
The only other VDW related aspect not included is the use of a Speed Rating alongside for comparison.
formtheory
Stallion
Looks good 
DuckandDive
Just looking at the 14:30 Curragh and feel Higher Leaves is interesting at the current price of 9/1.
Dropping in class and weight has proven G3 form at 10F, not been disgraced in two group ones last two starts.
Win
DuckandDive Just looking at the 14:30 Curragh and feel Higher Leaves is interesting at the current price of 9/1.
Dropping in class and weight has proven G3 form at 10F, not been disgraced in two group ones last two starts.
Win
DuckandDive
Mare
Looks good
Just looking at the 14:30 Curragh and feel Higher Leaves is interesting at the current price of 9/1.
Dropping in class and weight has proven G3 form at 10F, not been disgraced in two group ones last two starts.
Win
Good luck with the selections today.
Strapped for time, but did run the 4.00 Redcar race.
No short-lister. Penfolds was close, but the CR total, compared to others in the race just fell short. (in accordance with the sheet)
None of them have achieved Race Class, so there's some flexibility decision wise.
formtheory
Stallion
Couldn’t pick a bogey lol 
Oh well looks like I’m a bit rusty !
Does anyone know the stats regarding beaten Faves LTO , particularly short priced and running in a similar class/trip etc … ?
Noticed quite a few gone in today.
Would appreciate any info on this ! Cheers
Oh well looks like I’m a bit rusty !
Does anyone know the stats regarding beaten Faves LTO , particularly short priced and running in a similar class/trip etc … ?
Noticed quite a few gone in today.
Would appreciate any info on this ! Cheers
Chesham
Sire
Couldn’t pick a bogey lol
Oh well looks like I’m a bit rusty !
Does anyone know the stats regarding beaten Faves LTO , particularly short priced and running in a similar class/trip etc … ?
Noticed quite a few gone in today.
Would appreciate any info on this ! Cheers
formtheory
Stallion
DuckandDive
Mare
Might give food for thought.
Improve Your Punting - Part 5 - Backing Beaten Favourites - On Course Profits
I also remember looking at runners that were BF and then their OR had increased for their new run. Could imagine that would have pissed off the trainer/connections, but I would view if more as a positive. The assessor has seen something in the run, or collateral form, to find a reason to increase the mark. It's then up to the connections to decide whether or not to game the system (John Butler-esque), or place it in a race with the right conditions, to win a race.
DuckandDive
Mare
I realise it's VDW thread, just following on from the last post about BF's.
Windsor 8.40
Gary Moore is a shrewd trainer. Hasn't won a race as yet, but appeared a tad unlucky last run and the comments indicate why it was a beaten favourite. The assessor has put it up 1lb from 57 to 58. Tom Queally takes the ride again. Top RPR rated @ 72 suggests well handicapped. York to Windsor on trackform is interesting too.
Is 9/2 value? Couldn't say for sure. Opened 11/4 LTO and ended up 4/1, so maybe about right.
Timeform top rates it with a + and is a horse in focus. Skybet only go 7/2, so aren't taking any chances.
-----
Not sure what the market was thinking of in that race. Big drifter 2nd @ 11/1! Not too far away though.
Windsor 8.40
Gary Moore is a shrewd trainer. Hasn't won a race as yet, but appeared a tad unlucky last run and the comments indicate why it was a beaten favourite. The assessor has put it up 1lb from 57 to 58. Tom Queally takes the ride again. Top RPR rated @ 72 suggests well handicapped. York to Windsor on trackform is interesting too.
Is 9/2 value? Couldn't say for sure. Opened 11/4 LTO and ended up 4/1, so maybe about right.
Timeform top rates it with a + and is a horse in focus. Skybet only go 7/2, so aren't taking any chances.
-----
Not sure what the market was thinking of in that race. Big drifter 2nd @ 11/1! Not too far away though.
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formtheory
Stallion
I noticed a few today that looked interesting
DuckandDive .
Classina in the 15:00 beaten fave last two runs , same course /distance / class . Has two competitive Topspeed figures from the last four runs. 4/1 looks pretty good today.
DuckandDive .Classina in the 15:00 beaten fave last two runs , same course /distance / class . Has two competitive Topspeed figures from the last four runs. 4/1 looks pretty good today.
gerry
Mare
Had a look today well last night to be fair and done my picks a little different today not sure they will help on the V D W. but i thought i will post them.
But what i done is picked them with one thought and that was a winner in the race and not of the race which was one of his theories so here they are.
The first race was the 2 30 Ayr where DANZAN has run well many times round here has only run once in class 6 in its life and that was little novice long time ago. But its the two runs last year where went close here that give hope it can run close today.
Its last run here was better race than this dropping two classes and could be winner in race type.
I then went to the 4 05 at Ayr where not as clear cut because mainly Michael Dods has two in the race first i thought HALE END was looking at winner in the race , won here last year in similar race again only run once poorly or not near finish in 5 runs and that was only time at Ayr tried 10fur but at this distance always runs close then i noticed also has BOY DOUGLAS in the race and again run three times here winning twice and on close look is also a winner in the race but surely you cant have two winners in a race well Michael Dods could have between them, And the first thing i noticed was where is Conner Beasley after seeing HALE END that's when i noticed he's on BOY DOUGLAS so although race was not as clear cut the Dods angle looks right.
I now went to Windsor the 7 10 and the horse that looked winner in race was clearly EXPERT AGENT. This one has a little more consistency runs winning last two at first glance it looks like might need find a little more on rating , But when you go back far enough it has won round here on higher mark and there is maybe just a little more added to its consistency to maybe help it find that more it needs from 2023 to win.
I still feel is winner in the race but i have stretched its form a little out but did win here last year to and not far of.
Jumping to the 8 40 at Windsor i again actually made a slight error not sure how just shows that we get tired and make mistakes but i had RIVAL down as my winner in the race and i knew was close with the trainers other runner in JUDGE FRANK i honestly think it was easy for me to let the draw be factor in swaying for RIVAL and Saffie back on it looked right but when i looked at form this morning as it still bothered me i noticed RIVAL form was both 0-55 races where as JUDGE FRANK won here on this class 0-62 and got me thinking am i wrong and JUDGE FRANK is the winner of race well any way the trainer seems to have it handled although i do feel he wished they where drawn other way round, Either way i could not really split them taking draw in to account and going with trainer is best way so bet both of these just like i did with Dods two.
I finally went to the 8 50 Beverley where i thought WHATACRACKER was the winner in the race i see the ground has went heavy and although i think this horse is better on softer ground heavy can make fool of form, But it wasn't that again i woke up and looking at tighter things i realized i got it wrong and actually failed to be winner in a race as the run when 3rd here just fails as winner in this race but had first time cheeks on that day and did get hampered 2 fur out and now trying visor first time , There is enough encouragement to say could go close so thought worth a mention .
Not saying these are VDW bets but just letting the thread know is the winner in the race as important as consistency and ability rating i am just not sure of how this is worked out yet as i don't think dividing winnings by 100 makes sense.
The reason i say that is say a horse A has won 1,000,000 and run five races and other horse B had won 3,000,000 in 12 races the second horse B would come out best but if the second horse B had run 16 races then first A would come out best.
But dividing by 100 second horse B would always be first so surely the amount of chances you have had to win that amount must be important.
Logic must be added to the principal same as consistency last three runs say it wins last three races with consistency of 3 and all where 5k races so that's consistency of 5k now horse 2 is 342 last three runs one 8k one 12k and one 9k this is consistency of 3.2k now we have horse 3 last three runs 122 one 12k two 18k three 17k this is consistency of 9.4k clearly horse 3 is best and just for matter although not likely you could have horse 4 last three runs 433 at 50k 27k 20k would be 9.7k so clearly class must come into the erin numbers too.
But what i done is picked them with one thought and that was a winner in the race and not of the race which was one of his theories so here they are.
The first race was the 2 30 Ayr where DANZAN has run well many times round here has only run once in class 6 in its life and that was little novice long time ago. But its the two runs last year where went close here that give hope it can run close today.
Its last run here was better race than this dropping two classes and could be winner in race type.
I then went to the 4 05 at Ayr where not as clear cut because mainly Michael Dods has two in the race first i thought HALE END was looking at winner in the race , won here last year in similar race again only run once poorly or not near finish in 5 runs and that was only time at Ayr tried 10fur but at this distance always runs close then i noticed also has BOY DOUGLAS in the race and again run three times here winning twice and on close look is also a winner in the race but surely you cant have two winners in a race well Michael Dods could have between them, And the first thing i noticed was where is Conner Beasley after seeing HALE END that's when i noticed he's on BOY DOUGLAS so although race was not as clear cut the Dods angle looks right.
I now went to Windsor the 7 10 and the horse that looked winner in race was clearly EXPERT AGENT. This one has a little more consistency runs winning last two at first glance it looks like might need find a little more on rating , But when you go back far enough it has won round here on higher mark and there is maybe just a little more added to its consistency to maybe help it find that more it needs from 2023 to win.
I still feel is winner in the race but i have stretched its form a little out but did win here last year to and not far of.
Jumping to the 8 40 at Windsor i again actually made a slight error not sure how just shows that we get tired and make mistakes but i had RIVAL down as my winner in the race and i knew was close with the trainers other runner in JUDGE FRANK i honestly think it was easy for me to let the draw be factor in swaying for RIVAL and Saffie back on it looked right but when i looked at form this morning as it still bothered me i noticed RIVAL form was both 0-55 races where as JUDGE FRANK won here on this class 0-62 and got me thinking am i wrong and JUDGE FRANK is the winner of race well any way the trainer seems to have it handled although i do feel he wished they where drawn other way round, Either way i could not really split them taking draw in to account and going with trainer is best way so bet both of these just like i did with Dods two.
I finally went to the 8 50 Beverley where i thought WHATACRACKER was the winner in the race i see the ground has went heavy and although i think this horse is better on softer ground heavy can make fool of form, But it wasn't that again i woke up and looking at tighter things i realized i got it wrong and actually failed to be winner in a race as the run when 3rd here just fails as winner in this race but had first time cheeks on that day and did get hampered 2 fur out and now trying visor first time , There is enough encouragement to say could go close so thought worth a mention .
Not saying these are VDW bets but just letting the thread know is the winner in the race as important as consistency and ability rating i am just not sure of how this is worked out yet as i don't think dividing winnings by 100 makes sense.
The reason i say that is say a horse A has won 1,000,000 and run five races and other horse B had won 3,000,000 in 12 races the second horse B would come out best but if the second horse B had run 16 races then first A would come out best.
But dividing by 100 second horse B would always be first so surely the amount of chances you have had to win that amount must be important.
Logic must be added to the principal same as consistency last three runs say it wins last three races with consistency of 3 and all where 5k races so that's consistency of 5k now horse 2 is 342 last three runs one 8k one 12k and one 9k this is consistency of 3.2k now we have horse 3 last three runs 122 one 12k two 18k three 17k this is consistency of 9.4k clearly horse 3 is best and just for matter although not likely you could have horse 4 last three runs 433 at 50k 27k 20k would be 9.7k so clearly class must come into the erin numbers too.
gerry
Mare
Sorry guys i got that lost in the moment and took me that long to write it out i didn't realize the Danzan race had run and won but i am sure you can see how they where picked was logical winner in a race and honestly was the most bizarre after timing done.
All good for me though so smiling as i type now.
All good for me though so smiling as i type now.