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My V.D.W betting Journey!

mick

Sire
formtheory formtheory your above a good post and best of. Nothing for myself today and perhaps just as well.! I note you use the prize money as part of your class appraisal how do you find this in comparison to the OR and race grading. I use the latter but do still take note of both.
 
I believe it works well but I'm using it to really measure the Horse itself.

I do look at the official gradings and believe it would be foolish not too, but my way of thinking is to measure if the horse is in form I need a level to measure against.

If Zhui Feng had been running in races that were much lower than his Ability suggested and performing badly then I'd be thinking his form is questionable.

Zhui Feng has ability level of 519, his LTO was a 930. Usually I'd like improved ratings to back the performance up also but I feel horses that lead at a decent pace and drop back are missed by conventional ratings.

The numbers I use simply flag up the Horse.

The Class of Horse (Ability rating) Class of race (prize money) work together to show me those Horses.

You néed to look into the form of all in the race of course.

This is just what I look for I'm not saying I'm right.

If anyone looks at Lee's selections they will see the same thing though.
 
In regards to the above mick mick I've posted this on the forum before:


For instance looking at the winners of the races Lee seemed to have selected a horse to follow:

Seebald had an Ability level of 50, LTO had won a class 102 (above his Ability rating) then on the day had improved again winning a class 180 (Again above his Ability rating) so the form means something as he has shown form above his Ability level.

Zafrabad had a Ability level of 85, LTO had finished 3rd in a class 139 ( Above his Ability rating) then on the day won a class 112, dropped slightly but still good form and above his Ability level.


Xenophon had an Ability Rating of 283, LTO had won a class 510 (above his Ability) on the day won a class 435, lower but stepped up in trip.


Manawanui had an Ability rating of 27, LTO won class 27 ( first win, Ability rating going into race was 0, but for ease I am using the Ability rating on the day- makes no difference to my point) then on day won a class 57. Again above his ability.


These seems to be a common theme in Lee's selections, the other traits are there in these races too.

In the Roushayd Examples, the horses chosen had shown form above their Ability ratings,V.D.W even said about Billet, stepping up in class and showing good form.

P.king beaten by Drumagora, who had an Ability rating of 14 , who LTO had shown form in a class 118 (I think!)
 
Forgot to say I've covered my two selections in a half a point place only double at 9/4 and 3/1 with a return of around 13/1.

I prefer to do that than back horses E.W
 
The horses today at Ascot who are closest to my normal horses are.

Green Power
Billy Ray
Original choice
Never Do Nothing
 

Chesham

Sire
In the 2.5o the Goodwood Mile has seen 5 past winners of today’s rce come from the Goodwood Mile

There a few in today’s running that have come from the Goodwood Mile

These are the head to heads form
1246361C-0022-4AD2-9A76-88DC6955BE9D.png


The Class Ratings

C1B873C4-B226-4F7B-873C-2EED3D4A33A0.jpeg
 
Catterick 3:45 📝

MEDAHIM is the Class/Form horse🐴 in this race, LTO ran a big race finishing 2nd in a better race at York (7F Soft)✔️

A sharp track looks likely to suit with good performances at Goodwood in the past, in is on a winnable mark✔️

Daniel Tudhope is back on board and he will run a big race tomorrow,✔️although his trainer could be in better form🤔

Currently 3.25 on the Exchange (9/4)
 
Windsor 19:00📝

MORDRED produced a good effort LTO at Goodwood in a £16,000 class 3, at 11F. Staying on well and didn't get a clear run✔️

The 2nd in that race Sapa Inca has franked the form since, winning on Sat at Ascot✔️

Richard Hannon has now moved MORDRED into a 3 year old plus race and on these terms I believe he has the Class/Form to take this✔️

Currently 4.6 on the Exchange ✔️
 
For a bit of fun I thought I'd run a system I've come up with on here. It is based on VDW, we will see how it goes.

All will be backed 1pt win at BSP

Nottingham 4:10: NOT SO SLEEPY
4:45 RED HOT

Newmarket 7:55 ENIGMATIC / MR TOP HAT
 

rave154

Filly
formtheory formtheory

I like this thread and your thinking re:- ability compared to class & performance,

i have a question,

given the following data...and assuming all other factors equal, which horse would you pick? ( if any ? )

horse-A :-

Ability (BEFORE lto) = 200, lto won class 250

Horse B :-

Ability (BEFORE lto) = 110, lto won class 210

the notion im trying to convey here is.....when we compare ability to Class, another piece/s of data
springs up, the "improvement" ( ie....horse B went improved from 110 to 210, you could argue that is
about a 100% improvement, give or take )

or..the RAW ( if i can phrase it that way ) ability...ie....horse A..HAS an ability of 250 which is BETTER
than horse B.....and even though horse A has still improved ( 200 to 250 ) this is less than the improvement of horse B

your thoughts?

Regards,

David.

p.s Hedge, i havent forgotten you, i will get the data to you !
 
Last edited:
Hi R rave154

I think I get what your saying, I suppose it depends on the situation, is the horse young and unexposed or an older exposed horse.

If a young horse with an ability of say 100 ran an improved race LTO in class 600 and that race was a consistent race then the improvement looks genuine and today carries 8.7

But there is a horse with Ability of 200 who LTO showed improvement in a class 600 and now carries 9-7 I'd probably go for the horse carrying 8-7 due to the fact that the figures show that he is likely well weighted and not yet shown his full class as a horse.

Hope this makes sense.
 
I'll try and find some examples for tomorrow's racing later on if I have time.

Last weekend I mentioned ZHUI FENG, who was beaten a length at 16/1 grrrrrrr 😂

It was that horses Ability rating that initially signalled him.

A simple way of thinking that I find can help is this:

VDW gave two areas of subsets, consistent horses and seemingly inconsistent horses that are dropping in class.

If you stick to the forecast area and start with the highest Ability rating.

Does the horse appear in the 3 most consistent?

OR does the horse appear in the top 3 class LTO?

If the answer is no to consistensy and class then what about capability issues such as distance? If none there's no reason why the horse doesn't show up well in either group then move to the next Ability rating.

Most winners I find will be flagged in one of the two groups and of course sometimes they are in both.

As Lee said on this forum look at the odds.

A horse I posted recently on Twitter shows a horse dropping in class :

Ripon 19:40 📝

JUST HUBERT looks the one to be on here, dropping in class after a good 3rd behind the impressive winner and 1/5F Logician✔️

The selection has been 25/1, 16/1 and 14/1 in his last three races in classes 0-100, 0-90, 0-90
tonorrow he's entered into a weak 0-80 at around 7/2✔️

His class/form is better than these, showing improved performance in his last race and now being dropped to collect✔️

Daniel Tudhope is a positive booking ( on board for last win)🥇

I think were going to see a big run! 👌


A horse that was consistent was Harvey Dent :

HARVEY DENT🐎 ran a decent race last time out when 2nd to the JT favourite of the race, City Wanderer who was a winner LTO, and recieved 16lbs in weight from the selection✔️

Turned out quickly and back into a 3 year old plus race, HARVEY DENT can take advantage of his weight allowance whilst in cracking form against his elders✔️

Loch Ness and Kuwait Station head the dangers but I feel on balance Harvey Dent could be difficult to beat✔️🤞

Currently 3.5 on the Exchange

Remember with VDW the betting /Forecast is the backbone of it all.

That's my thoughts anyway, I no many will disagree and I'm not fussed by that, I like bigger prices and enjoy handicaps so it's am not fussed about a lower strike rate.

Hope this helps people in some way.
 

rave154

Filly
I'll try and find some examples for tomorrow's racing later on if I have time.

Last weekend I mentioned ZHUI FENG, who was beaten a length at 16/1 grrrrrrr 😂

It was that horses Ability rating that initially signalled him.

A simple way of thinking that I find can help is this:

VDW gave two areas of subsets, consistent horses and seemingly inconsistent horses that are dropping in class.

If you stick to the forecast area and start with the highest Ability rating.

Does the horse appear in the 3 most consistent?

OR does the horse appear in the top 3 class LTO?

If the answer is no to consistensy and class then what about capability issues such as distance? If none there's no reason why the horse doesn't show up well in either group then move to the next Ability rating.

Most winners I find will be flagged in one of the two groups and of course sometimes they are in both.

As Lee said on this forum look at the odds.

A horse I posted recently on Twitter shows a horse dropping in class :

Ripon 19:40 📝

JUST HUBERT looks the one to be on here, dropping in class after a good 3rd behind the impressive winner and 1/5F Logician✔

The selection has been 25/1, 16/1 and 14/1 in his last three races in classes 0-100, 0-90, 0-90
tonorrow he's entered into a weak 0-80 at around 7/2✔

His class/form is better than these, showing improved performance in his last race and now being dropped to collect✔

Daniel Tudhope is a positive booking ( on board for last win)🥇

I think were going to see a big run! 👌


A horse that was consistent was Harvey Dent :

HARVEY DENT🐎 ran a decent race last time out when 2nd to the JT favourite of the race, City Wanderer who was a winner LTO, and recieved 16lbs in weight from the selection✔

Turned out quickly and back into a 3 year old plus race, HARVEY DENT can take advantage of his weight allowance whilst in cracking form against his elders✔

Loch Ness and Kuwait Station head the dangers but I feel on balance Harvey Dent could be difficult to beat✔🤞

Currently 3.5 on the Exchange

Remember with VDW the betting /Forecast is the backbone of it all.

That's my thoughts anyway, I no many will disagree and I'm not fussed by that, I like bigger prices and enjoy handicaps so it's am not fussed about a lower strike rate.

Hope this helps people in some way.

thanks FormTheory, a lot of info there !!

i'll nap.....and...take a look at tomorrows results ;-)
 
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