• Hi Guest Just in case you were not aware I wanted to highlight that you can now get a free 7 day trial of Horseracebase here.
    We have a lot of members who are existing users of Horseracebase so help is always available if needed, as well as dedicated section of the fourm here.
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    AR

My V.D.W betting Journey!

formtheory formtheory the more I study this, the more I think the definition of "form horse" is essential. There I was, trundling through the 1986 Boxing Day card thinking yeah I get this form horse thing and then I looked at the Boxing Day '84 examples and you have winning favourites, ones with apparently good recent form and others that look like the '86 ones that are dismissed as non-form horses.

I would be interested in your take on this...
 
I've not researched them mate so cannot really say.

I believe it depends on whether the horse should have performed or not.
 
I thought that too, but it is interesting to note when winning horses, favourites even are discounted, some may have capability issues, others large weight increases, but some are just deeply puzzling. If you look at the Righthand Man / Lucky vane example this contains some such horses.
 
mjay
Re Righthand Man have a look at the odds which VDW time and time again referred to. I think Bob has said enough to put seekers on the right path.
Most of LEE's examples were based on odds compared to finishing position and he I think like VDW made lists. When I say that I mean if the first two or three favourites finish in the first three of the race then this becomes a matter of note.
Start by looking at his examples given in Systematic Betting in respect of Vague Shot and Bin Shaddad. If you have the form books consider Celtic Pleasure 433/78. There are many examples and as VDW and I think Lee also said go back as far as you like the answers are there.
 
formtheory said:
Hi Everyone !

I have decided to begin a blog, posting my bets and thoughts regarding the races I will look at.

This will hopefully motivate me, and push me forward.

The Betting Bank start will be 130 pts, I shall bet 3% each bet.

I know there are mixed views when it comes to V.D.W but I have seen a genuine improvement in my betting since I took an interest in his writings, there is still along way to go for me but it is a hobby at the moment but I would love to take it a bit further in the future.

Waiting and betting in the correct races is my current downfall!

A bet comes along that I know has a great chance, I bet it, it wins! Great but I will then place a small rushed bet for the sake of it and lose the profits I have gained.

This Blog is to counter that, I am going to only bet the horses I post up on this blog.

Cheers,
Paul.
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Hi formtheory formtheory

Firstly thank you for writing a blog that spoke to me on so many levels.
And I hope you don't mind me asking a few questions.

I was similar to you in that before I too felt I had to bet on most every other race, just for the sake of it sometimes.
A habit I have now left behind, thank goodness.

Did posting your bets and thoughts help you? Because it has me, greatly.
Is it something you still do?

You also said back then you had a lot to learn.
Do you feel you know sufficient about racing now to take it beyond the hobbie you once said it was?

Congratulations again on such a good blog, it is ashame (for me at least) that you no longer contribute to it.
 
Hi The Uncouth The Uncouth

Thank's for your kind post!

I've been posting on a thread on the Inner Sanctum.

I've changed my style to waiting for the "right bets" these tend to be Favs but I don't back below evens.

I'm finding this way very profitable, but have to be patient which to be honest isn't really a problem.

Tabbarak 2.0 1st
Desert Encounter 3.0. 1st
Getawaytoeurope 2.60 1st
Raffle Prize 2.25 2nd
Legends Gold 2.10 1st
Fort Myers 2.26 1st
Cape Byron 3.30 1st
Tango 2.02 1st
Magical 2.56 1st
Mighty Spirit 2.16 1st
The Bay Birch 2.32 4th
Fiddlerontheroof 2.0 2nd
Shattered Love 2.0. 1st
Documenting 2.0. 1st

79%

Here are my results as posted in advance on the thread.

Thank's again for your post!
 
Newbury 14:25 Artistic Star

Improved when raised in class penultimate race (9/1) showing improved form via beaten lengths and improved RPR +8 above todays O.R.

Upped in trip considerably LTO (66/1) and faded in the final furlong.

Now drops in class (prize money) and trip and now 9/2.

Beckett and Ryan both have a good record at Newbury.

2.5% win @9/2
 
formtheory said:
18:35 Newmarket SIAM FOX looks well handicapped, 11/2 looks worthwhile.

2.5% win
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Agreed.

Top on my ability ratings and good key-horse support and conditions suit.

The market is a bit compressed at the moment, which I view with caution. Maybe it will improve over the day.

Regards
 
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