• Hi Guest Just in case you were not aware I wanted to highlight that you can now get a free 7 day trial of Horseracebase here.
    We have a lot of members who are existing users of Horseracebase so help is always available if needed, as well as dedicated section of the fourm here.
    Best Wishes
    AR

My V.D.W betting Journey!

formtheory

formtheory

Stallion
Hi Everyone !

I have decided to begin a blog, posting my bets and thoughts regarding the races I will look at.

This will hopefully motivate me, and push me forward.

The Betting Bank start will be 130 pts, I shall bet 3% each bet.

I know there are mixed views when it comes to V.D.W but I have seen a genuine improvement in my betting since I took an interest in his writings, there is still along way to go for me but it is a hobby at the moment but I would love to take it a bit further in the future.

Waiting and betting in the correct races is my current downfall!

A bet comes along that I know has a great chance, I bet it, it wins! Great but I will then place a small rushed bet for the sake of it and lose the profits I have gained.

This Blog is to counter that, I am going to only bet the horses I post up on this blog.

Cheers,
Paul.
 
Best of Luck Paul,
As we all know VDW's big mantra was temperament, and I reckon that was one thing that no one can argue against!

All the Best
AR
 
OK...... from someone who has not a clue who VDW is nor his methods or lifestyle or drink preferences I am really interested in the tactics about to ensue :)
An explanation with the bets might help newbies like myself who have no other talent than a love of horse racing :)

What I am saying is if poss could you give some direction (like you once received perhaps) to myself and others as to the methods involved ie. not just selections?

I know it is asking a lot to share methods as I have read in Mtotos blog such practise is sometimes a bit of an issue.... so pretty please .... I have been interested in racing for less than a year and have been trying to learn hand over fist by reading Mordin on time and Well Handicapped Horses... but really need help from experienced punters
 
Poz said:
OK...... from someone who has not a clue who VDW is nor his methods or lifestyle or drink preferences I am really interested in the tactics about to ensue :)
An explanation with the bets might help newbies like myself who have no other talent than a love of horse racing :)

What I am saying is if poss could you give some direction (like you once received perhaps) to myself and others as to the methods involved ie. not just selections?

I know it is asking a lot to share methods as I have read in Mtotos blog such practise is sometimes a bit of an issue.... so pretty please .... I have been interested in racing for less than a year and have been trying to learn hand over fist by reading Mordin on time and Well Handicapped Horses... but really need help from experienced punters
Click to expand...

Screen Shot 2014-07-21 at 23.33.24.png

Screen Shot 2014-07-21 at 23.34.02.png

Screen Shot 2014-07-21 at 23.34.16.png

Screen Shot 2014-07-21 at 23.34.24.png
 
Chesham or Formtheory may answer this question...

Is there a particular class or level of race that has proved easier and more accurate to apply this method to?
ie. does it work equally well with a seller or claimer as it does to Group 1 or Listed for instance??
What I would like to do is narrow the racecard down each day for study purposes.... on another note what is a sensible sized field to analyse? (I would hate to try the method for the National or the Ceasarawitch :eek: )
 
Looking forward to the selections and working back to see how they were arrived at ... in fact quite excited :)
 
I wouldn't get too excited! Ha ha!

V.D.W recommended using the method on the top 2 prized races at the principal meeting of the day, then the highest prize from each of the other meetings.

The point is that trainers aim horses at prizes, so the form tends to be more reliable in the higher prizes at a meeting.
 
OK trying my first run at this... in the 20.10 at Carlisle (the best race there) I have divided the last 3 race values by 10 added them together and shared by 3
My top 4 are:
Toto Skyllachy 103
Lazarus Bell 77
True Pleasure 58
Skytrain 56

Now the last 3 form figures are:
Toto - 404
True - 110
Sky - 585
Laz - 605
Nao - 212
Hard - 314
Jac - 201

Is there a scoring system I should know about to assess the worth of these form figures please... I won't continue until advised :)
 
:oops:

this is embarrassing ... how do you quantify a 0 ? I mean what would 201 be compared to 404 achieved in hugely better class?
 
formtheory said:
Hi Everyone !

I have decided to begin a blog, posting my bets and thoughts regarding the races I will look at.

This will hopefully motivate me, and push me forward.

The Betting Bank start will be 130 pts, I shall bet 3% each bet.

I know there are mixed views when it comes to V.D.W but I have seen a genuine improvement in my betting since I took an interest in his writings, there is still along way to go for me but it is a hobby at the moment but I would love to take it a bit further in the future.

Waiting and betting in the correct races is my current downfall!

A bet comes along that I know has a great chance, I bet it, it wins! Great but I will then place a small rushed bet for the sake of it and lose the profits I have gained.

This Blog is to counter that, I am going to only bet the horses I post up on this blog.

Cheers,
Paul.
Click to expand...

I think i explained this to another the other week about this problem, what i use to do when was pro just have little bets on probables just to past the time and mayb even won a little, i remember when in London i use to just play no 31 for about 60 spins taking rests and also changng the casino a few times even, and even done in excess of 20.000 spins and also won i use to keep records and hit at around one in 30 for just pound stakes.

You should have no trouble though if still at work, i only use to back the ones i thought were good and my job kept my mind off betting i found, and built up my betting bank fairly quick.

Is just discipline though which every pro has i think, mayb is natural in them to an extent, it use to scare me to death watching some of the gamblers in the casinos and i suppose is the same with most punters also.
 
Poz said:
Now the last 3 form figures are:
Toto - 404
True - 110
Sky - 585
Laz - 605
Nao - 212
Hard - 314
Jac - 201

Is there a scoring system I should know about to assess the worth of these form figures please... I won't continue until advised :)
Click to expand...

You could add the numbers together for the 3 races, but make a 0 equal to 10 so:
Toto - 404= 18
True - 110 =12
Sky - 585=18
Laz - 605=21
Nao - 212=5
Hard - 314=8
Jac - 201=13
The lowest score being the best form or you could then take away the score from a 103 to end up with

Toto - 404= 85
True - 110 =91
Sky - 585=85
Laz - 605=82
Nao - 212=98
Hard - 314=95
Jac - 201=90
 
Thanks Ark... I had already realised upon the first method simply by finding nothing worse than a 9 in the horse form.
What is a bit of a puzzle though is that TOTO's 404 was in better class races than Jacob 201 which were maidens etc... so 18 v 13 might not be a straight forward picture :)

For what it's worth my dabble today has led me to:
20.10 Carlisle 1True Perfection 2Lazarus Bell / Skytrain
15.30 Muss 1 Geanie Mac 2 Hunting Ground
16.00 Muss 1 Flash City 2 Space Artist/ Perfect Blossom

Anyone out there confirm I have had a good or a bad first dabble :)
 
Poz said:
What is a bit of a puzzle though is that TOTO's 404 was in better class races than Jacob 201 which were maidens etc... so 18 v 13 might not be a straight forward picture.
Click to expand...
Isn't this where the class rating based on prize money won in the last three races would put the form rating into its correct context?

(Can't believe I'm contributing to a VDW thread. This forum has a lot to answer for...)

Ray
 
Close today Poz, keep it up!

Nothing for me today, tomorrow's racing is poor. Cruisetothelimelight could go well but the race is a bit of a mess and one I will leave alone!

Take care
Paul.
 
You must log in or register to reply here.
Back
Top