Hong Kong Speed Figures

[desimal]

I backed Lucky McQueen earlier that was also hammered in the market but didn’t position well

Well with how Poon has been going, you were lucky to get at least one winner from him backing him twice.

There's a few jockeys really struggling at the Valley, for one Britney just can't get her horses moving, and you can see the odds on what are decent rides for her spiral out to absurd levels. I'm sure she can win on a one-dimensional front-runner, but anything else I think you can basically take out of the market. The drifts seem to imply she simply cannot win at the course and watching her, I don't disagree.

Chung is probably next worst then Poon. Bentley rarely puts in great ones I find as well.

 

[Outlander]

Well with how Poon has been going, you were lucky to get at least one winner from him backing him twice.

There's a few jockeys really struggling at the Valley, for one Britney just can't get her horses moving, and you can see the odds on what are decent rides for her spiral out to absurd levels. I'm sure she can win on a one-dimensional front-runner, but anything else I think you can basically take out of the market. The drifts seem to imply she simply cannot win at the course and watching her, I don't disagree.

Chung is probably next worst then Poon. Bentley rarely puts in great ones I find as well.

Teams deadly again, shooting from top, the auspicious and casa of honour, all went brown, lucky McQueen probably the only real miss in that department, they are light years ahead of anything I can come up with. Don’t know how they do it.

 

[desimal]

Lucky McQueen and The Auspicious were both brown lamped in previous recent starts too, so it's certainly not based off any 1 run or anything.

Likely the betting public cast them aside because of A. wide draws and B. a hype favourite or two in each of their races.

Shooting to Top I was surprised, I knew he had excuses and showed merit with his sects on debut (plus good trials), but didn't think he would plunge into $6, especially with Ethan Brown first time here (granted he has good form in Aus).

 

[woof43]

The first race should a good character building experience, Both the thousand cups and Nebraskan run best when they have a soft lead, maybe around the 23.9-24.1 mark would be their ideal range, My Mcsim have predicted a quicker time, because of Brilliant Fire if that happens then they are in a danger zone of overdoing it, So fast early pace then suits Team Happy and Concorde Star which is maybe the way I'll wager. If it is a soft pace early, it makes TC and N hard to outsprint although happy boys needs a Soft early pace and has a good turn of speed. Be interesting to watch the clock for S1

View attachment 166605

In the broadcast of the meeting last night, before the start, as they were behind the barriers, they showed the weather map, Jenny Chapman commented re the assistance, the wind direction indicators were all Yellow, I had the map up and was refreshed and at no stage did it show a Yellow for any point, Mine showed Blue, the first section 1200-1000 was with them 2kmh , down the back they were wind assisted 5-6kmh and in home straight it again was wind assisted 5kmh all Blue anyway just thought I'd mention it , the difference in the standard HK wind measure 5kmh/3.6)/10 = .138 wind assist per 200m but if it's yellow then it is at least double

 

[woof43]

been studying that race #442 the fastest v expectation st1000m race this season by some way, to the point where you would doubt the time, the winner turquoise velocity has won since, so has metro power , pi legend, we are hero, fast responder, patents love, and sight hermoso, casa of honour ran the final section better than anything and the final section was miles quicker v expectation than all the other races final 400m.
All that said mug like me had only £2.50 ew @40/1, when the money come for it I should have known it was a live one.

again well picked, I was just looking at that race you said, #442, plus i just punched in the raw numbers and did a simple race comparisons to my Model time and all adj time to see the difference in that st1000 the horse undeformed and at the race level the leaders were hard pace/ and leaders punished, casa Honor made ground late I noticed watching that st1000 it also had the gear change. some lessons learnt in hindsight

 

[woof43]

Lucky McQueen and The Auspicious were both brown lamped in previous recent starts too, so it's certainly not based off any 1 run or anything.

Likely the betting public cast them aside because of A. wide draws and B. a hype favourite or two in each of their races.

Shooting to Top I was surprised, I knew he had excuses and showed merit with his sects on debut (plus good trials), but didn't think he would plunge into $6, especially with Ethan Brown first time here (granted he has good form in Aus).

I was on Lucky McQueen Poon should have kept going early, the horse under it was a bit unruly, may have influenced his decision

 

[desimal]

Banger card on Sunday. Don't suppose anyone has JRA ratings?

Regardless, even just watching Jantar Mantar or comparing him to Soul Rush, should be winning if he travels better now as an older horse. His racing style (forward) will suit & barrier 6 is good.

Satono Reve ran good time his last start but not sure how it will stack up, but assume he will be a very real place chance.

Masquerade Ball v Romantic Warrior the most exciting. Will track bias favour RW too much? especially as the 2000 is likely short of MB's best trip.

I have access to both the HKJC and JRA tote, so I might be able to get some value with different exotic combos based on each (i.e non-JRA horses probably paying much higher on JRA tote and vice versa).

 

[Outlander]

Banger card on Sunday. Don't suppose anyone has JRA ratings?

Regardless, even just watching Jantar Mantar or comparing him to Soul Rush, should be winning if he travels better now as an older horse. His racing style (forward) will suit & barrier 6 is good.

Satono Reve ran good time his last start but not sure how it will stack up, but assume he will be a very real place chance.

Masquerade Ball v Romantic Warrior the most exciting. Will track bias favour RW too much? especially as the 2000 is likely short of MB's best trip.

I have access to both the HKJC and JRA tote, so I might be able to get some value with different exotic combos based on each (i.e non-JRA horses probably paying much higher on JRA tote and vice versa).

Don’t have JRA ratings, but if you click on any overseas horses running on Sunday on the HKJC website you will get their performance ratings, my rule of thumb for these overseas ratings is to add 6 points to compare with HKR
Jantar Mantar would be 127 HKR
Masquerade Ball would be 134 HKR v Romantic Warrior 136 HKR
Just a loose interpretation to line them up a bit

 

[The Hare]

Results and card with 3 Group 1's on Sunday, usual suspects plus Commanche Brave from Ireland on a world tour it seems. KA Ying Rising at least a different competitor.

 

[desimal]

Results and card with 3 Group 1's on Sunday, usual suspects plus Commanche Brave from Ireland on a world tour it seems. KA Ying Rising at least a different competitor.

Cheers mate. Hmm can I ask regarding your 4yo series ratings (Little Paradise classic mile for example) compared to the G2/G1 ratings of My Wish/Lucky Sweynesse, the gap shouldn't be as big as here suggests?

 

[The Hare]

Well with how Poon has been going, you were lucky to get at least one winner from him backing him twice.

There's a few jockeys really struggling at the Valley, for one Britney just can't get her horses moving, and you can see the odds on what are decent rides for her spiral out to absurd levels. I'm sure she can win on a one-dimensional front-runner, but anything else I think you can basically take out of the market. The drifts seem to imply she simply cannot win at the course and watching her, I don't disagree.

Chung is probably next worst then Poon. Bentley rarely puts in great ones I find as well.

Hi D desimal
Only partially linked to your comments about Britney at the Valley. I just looked at the form for Ace War that ran a very fast finish yesterday and particularly keen on the lack of form before this season. Obviously stepped up a gear for Newnham and moving to the Valey earlier in the season.

But the interesting part is this horse nearly always in rear apart from the twice Britney rode him and she managed to get him in the lead yet still delivered nothing.

Will have a look at her Valley v Sha Tin record later.

 

[Outlander]

Cheers mate. Hmm can I ask regarding your 4yo series ratings (Little Paradise classic mile for example) compared to the G2/G1 ratings of My Wish/Lucky Sweynesse, the gap shouldn't be as big as here suggests?

This is also a problem for me, these 4yo series we just had where you get horses running of same weight ranging in ratings from 105 to 75, stormy grove won one when 76, the these group races with horses like Invincible Ibis rated 107 against voyage bubble 130, can get them up to about 116-118 with sectional potential, but no higher than that on what they have done, i think Invincible Ibis will be a 5/1-7/1 chance , but on anything it’s done long odds, same with Little Paradise but that one needs to come back from what look like negative temperamental issues.
Hard to rate these races and especially price them up without tweaking . This race does look ripe for a new kid on the block.

 

[desimal]

Will have a look at her Valley v Sha Tin record later.

Yeah interesting let me know, or perhaps equally interesting how many rides has she won as backmarker or even non-leader.

I'm a bit of a replay guy and visually she can't get them running like say Purton can.

Probably want to rule her out on anything non-leader at HV.

 

[desimal]

Hard to rate these races and especially price them up without tweaking . This race does look ripe for a new kid on the block.

I like that Purton is on Little Paradise and outside of the tempermental issues, looked clearly the best 4yo in the Classic Mile.

I'm betting Jantar Mantar personally but I'll be playing exotics with some running in behind, probably like Little Paradise more to run a placing with the map and taking on faith that he can bounce back.

Obviously stepped up a gear for Newnham and moving to the Valey earlier in the season.

Going up in trip and ridden quieter definitely some influence. But I think Newham took another from the same stable (Soaring Bronco) and he's on absolute fire right now as well. Off the top of my head Bronco was from D Whyte.

 

[Outlander]

I like that Purton is on Little Paradise and outside of the tempermental issues, looked clearly the best 4yo in the Classic Mile.

I'm betting Jantar Mantar personally but I'll be playing exotics with some running in behind, probably like Little Paradise more to run a placing with the map and taking on faith that he can bounce back.


Going up in trip and ridden quieter definitely some influence. But I think Newham took another from the same stable (Soaring Bronco) and he's on absolute fire right now as well. Off the top of my head Bronco was from D Whyte.

Jantar Mantar will be favourite, no luck the only time he came to HK, That run stands out on an otherwise solid record.

 

[The Hare]

This is also a problem for me, these 4yo series we just had where you get horses running of same weight ranging in ratings from 105 to 75, stormy grove won one when 76, the these group races with horses like Invincible Ibis rated 107 against voyage bubble 130, can get them up to about 116-118 with sectional potential, but no higher than that on what they have done, i think Invincible Ibis will be a 5/1-7/1 chance , but on anything it’s done long odds, same with Little Paradise but that one needs to come back from what look like negative temperamental issues.
Hard to rate these races and especially price them up without tweaking . This race does look ripe for a new kid on the block.

Hi D desimal

Good spot! I hadn't realised they have 2 columns for the ratings for the Group races. So as you say the 4yo races are the HK official ratings. After the Group race results come in I look up the ratings of the HK horses on the HKJC site and then was adding around 5 to the International ratings as per O Outlander . The HK ratings gaps are bigger than International so I have adjusted at 1.25 points to International ratings.

I have used 118 International as 123 then adjusted 1.25 points wither way. Not perfect but the added card page now has HK ratings for the local horses and International ratings adjusted as per the above.

Hopefully this better but it is not perfect and really better done bu distances as it varies over longer trips.

If you have any better ideas let me know.

 

[Outlander]

as predicted the 4yo are around 5/1 in the mile atm
ratings cant get them even close to this, but i feel personally they are in with a great chance in a weak division
Sunday attached

 

[The Hare]

D desimal

Hope this makes sense - Britney rides split by course.

So placings are her 1st,2nd and 3rd at course
Races her rides at course
Runners are no of total runners in those races
Beat are the number of runners her horses beat.
% run beaten from those last 2 figures
Pos 800 from finish are her sectional positions at that stage of the race
% 1st 3 are her percentage at the 800 mark in the first 3.
Pos win 800 from finish are the position of the horses that went on to win the race at 800 from home.

As you say she is yet to learn to ride Happy Valley, clearly going too fast, her expertise on the all weather though is very good with the added weight advantage it gives.

Probably be similar for the new lady apprentice Nicola Yuen.

 

[The Hare]

The horse you mention was from Mr Ng and so far just returned to form of a year ago when that trainer was in better shape

 

[The Hare]

Here is similar for H Y Yuen. Not much to go on but think O Outlander mentioned she had more experience.