I did an early look at form last night over a few drinks, tonight have gone back for my second pass. I'll loosely go off early tote prices on horses I may want to back if fixed odds offers similar or ones I might get value on tote.
I've been doing pretty alright lately especially at HV, so I'll try get at least some basic thoughts out before meetings if its of value for anyone or even simply for my own thinking out loud. So here are the horses who are of interest to me, for if anyone cares, or if you have a counterpoint as to why they might be bait would love to hear it.
R2
Golden Friendship - not many horses have as many forgive runs as this guy over L3 months of racing. Has gone green or brown (late odds changes from pros) almost every run, a notablbe exception his 1200 run on Feb 25 - and it's no surprise he is best at 1000. But at a low enough mark and nice map that think can push the 1200. I don't mind the rider change, Bentley hasn't done much with him.
Glaciated -if can get big odds.
Honest Witness did steal his last win with a good ride, got a nice gap on the pack and Britney was holding the other horses up sitting too far back as the next horse in line. Good horse but always suspiciosus about backing a horse that had favours like that. THAT SAID the trial was very good.
R3
Romantic Fantasy + Star Brose both look very appealing, however at odds
Packing Hurricane perfect trip for him, just not sure how he'll go with the freshen.
Agenda had a lot of money support last time he raced HV2200 with horses like Liveandletlive and The Auspicious in the race (i.e WAY harder), but that was up in class and sometimes the low weight up there is more beneficial at 2200 than an easier race down in class.
Big watch on whether Agenda gets market support.
R4
Crossborderdude seems obvious for at least a save
Winning Now back to 1200 great, probably be my main play.
Find My Love looks very short on the early tote, I like this horse and it's a real winning chance, but it has been double digits most starts due to its racing style. Would have to drift a bit I think.
Ace Power 1st turf run since switching to MARK NEWHNAM. Tricky horses to catch though. Showed some merit on those AW runs.
R5
looks a simple Q/Tri with 2-5-8.
Superb King is one horse Britney can probably ride just going straight forward, and claim will help him. Probably expecting 2 or 5 to win and 8 to place.
R6
Vivacious Win - looks the good thing of the day.
Beauty Viva had a very short SP against these last time, could bounce back.
Another Zonda dangerous at this mark but his trainer has no idea what to do with him, will show up to one of these races one day and just win.
Thought Mighty Steed had none, out of an easier race, wider draw.
R7
Bottomuptogether looks the good thing here.
Magic Control at a great mark, will be including in exotics or perhaps betting PLACE only.
Colourful King finally gets a good draw here and his C/D record is only good with low draws. Was forgive last time. BUT he's the type of horses I'd only save on.
Not sure what to do with Stellar Express but might get too much contention for lead with some of these others lower in the W around 2 bends here compared to ST.
Glowing Praises has BRITNEY at short odds early so that's a NOPE.
R8
Giant Ballon looks the obvious, new horse with blinkers.
Meowth ran in inferior ground last time, looks great for exotics, PLACE bets.
Happy Index very solid and even Flying Wrote all his best form is with low draws. Still prefer Meowth over him with the weight swings from some of their previous starts.
Embrace Aberdeen actually beat Giant Ballon home in Feb, now gets huge weight turnaround on him as well, but that was at Sha Tin and, as noted Giant Ballon has had blinkers applied since then so I'm essentially treating him like a new horses. Any other situation those weight swings would have me backing Embrace Aberdeen.
But probably would just bet Giant Ballon to keep it simple.
R9
Armor Golden Eagle - horror watch last time, big late money plunge, another good draw & Purton.
Withallmyfaith - so many bad rides going too fast in front at HV, finally gets his jockey change. This horse has been getting plunged in some serious HV C3 races with MAX QUE, Silvery Breeze etc.
Q on both of them.
Fantastic Fun was good last time but had perfect trip.
Viva Graciousness has BRITNEY so that's a pen in a compeititve race like this.
Lucky Twin Stars - did go brown lamped last time, started $13 in a strong race, but caught wide no cover. MAYBE worth backing if 20++
Corleone/Stormi both honest, might be too hard a race for them.
Anyway that's how I'm feeling about the card.
. Brittney maybe a bit one dimensional (5 winners from outside the top 3 in ST though), but still useful with her claim before the injury especially on AWT like you say, Nichola I have seen her ride in other countries showing maybe more than one dimension, we will see, but still very useful 10lb claim.
