Hong Kong Speed Figures

[desimal]

I backed Lucky McQueen earlier that was also hammered in the market but didn’t position well

Well with how Poon has been going, you were lucky to get at least one winner from him backing him twice.

There's a few jockeys really struggling at the Valley, for one Britney just can't get her horses moving, and you can see the odds on what are decent rides for her spiral out to absurd levels. I'm sure she can win on a one-dimensional front-runner, but anything else I think you can basically take out of the market. The drifts seem to imply she simply cannot win at the course and watching her, I don't disagree.

Chung is probably next worst then Poon. Bentley rarely puts in great ones I find as well.

 

[Outlander]

Well with how Poon has been going, you were lucky to get at least one winner from him backing him twice.

There's a few jockeys really struggling at the Valley, for one Britney just can't get her horses moving, and you can see the odds on what are decent rides for her spiral out to absurd levels. I'm sure she can win on a one-dimensional front-runner, but anything else I think you can basically take out of the market. The drifts seem to imply she simply cannot win at the course and watching her, I don't disagree.

Chung is probably next worst then Poon. Bentley rarely puts in great ones I find as well.

Teams deadly again, shooting from top, the auspicious and casa of honour, all went brown, lucky McQueen probably the only real miss in that department, they are light years ahead of anything I can come up with. Don’t know how they do it.

 

[desimal]

Lucky McQueen and The Auspicious were both brown lamped in previous recent starts too, so it's certainly not based off any 1 run or anything.

Likely the betting public cast them aside because of A. wide draws and B. a hype favourite or two in each of their races.

Shooting to Top I was surprised, I knew he had excuses and showed merit with his sects on debut (plus good trials), but didn't think he would plunge into $6, especially with Ethan Brown first time here (granted he has good form in Aus).

 

[woof43]

The first race should a good character building experience, Both the thousand cups and Nebraskan run best when they have a soft lead, maybe around the 23.9-24.1 mark would be their ideal range, My Mcsim have predicted a quicker time, because of Brilliant Fire if that happens then they are in a danger zone of overdoing it, So fast early pace then suits Team Happy and Concorde Star which is maybe the way I'll wager. If it is a soft pace early, it makes TC and N hard to outsprint although happy boys needs a Soft early pace and has a good turn of speed. Be interesting to watch the clock for S1

View attachment 166605

In the broadcast of the meeting last night, before the start, as they were behind the barriers, they showed the weather map, Jenny Chapman commented re the assistance, the wind direction indicators were all Yellow, I had the map up and was refreshed and at no stage did it show a Yellow for any point, Mine showed Blue, the first section 1200-1000 was with them 2kmh , down the back they were wind assisted 5-6kmh and in home straight it again was wind assisted 5kmh all Blue anyway just thought I'd mention it , the difference in the standard HK wind measure 5kmh/3.6)/10 = .138 wind assist per 200m but if it's yellow then it is at least double

 

[woof43]

been studying that race #442 the fastest v expectation st1000m race this season by some way, to the point where you would doubt the time, the winner turquoise velocity has won since, so has metro power , pi legend, we are hero, fast responder, patents love, and sight hermoso, casa of honour ran the final section better than anything and the final section was miles quicker v expectation than all the other races final 400m.
All that said mug like me had only £2.50 ew @40/1, when the money come for it I should have known it was a live one.

again well picked, I was just looking at that race you said, #442, plus i just punched in the raw numbers and did a simple race comparisons to my Model time and all adj time to see the difference in that st1000 the horse undeformed and at the race level the leaders were hard pace/ and leaders punished, casa Honor made ground late I noticed watching that st1000 it also had the gear change. some lessons learnt in hindsight

 

[woof43]

Lucky McQueen and The Auspicious were both brown lamped in previous recent starts too, so it's certainly not based off any 1 run or anything.

Likely the betting public cast them aside because of A. wide draws and B. a hype favourite or two in each of their races.

Shooting to Top I was surprised, I knew he had excuses and showed merit with his sects on debut (plus good trials), but didn't think he would plunge into $6, especially with Ethan Brown first time here (granted he has good form in Aus).

I was on Lucky McQueen Poon should have kept going early, the horse under it was a bit unruly, may have influenced his decision

 

[desimal]

Banger card on Sunday. Don't suppose anyone has JRA ratings?

Regardless, even just watching Jantar Mantar or comparing him to Soul Rush, should be winning if he travels better now as an older horse. His racing style (forward) will suit & barrier 6 is good.

Satono Reve ran good time his last start but not sure how it will stack up, but assume he will be a very real place chance.

Masquerade Ball v Romantic Warrior the most exciting. Will track bias favour RW too much? especially as the 2000 is likely short of MB's best trip.

I have access to both the HKJC and JRA tote, so I might be able to get some value with different exotic combos based on each (i.e non-JRA horses probably paying much higher on JRA tote and vice versa).

 

[Outlander]

Banger card on Sunday. Don't suppose anyone has JRA ratings?

Regardless, even just watching Jantar Mantar or comparing him to Soul Rush, should be winning if he travels better now as an older horse. His racing style (forward) will suit & barrier 6 is good.

Satono Reve ran good time his last start but not sure how it will stack up, but assume he will be a very real place chance.

Masquerade Ball v Romantic Warrior the most exciting. Will track bias favour RW too much? especially as the 2000 is likely short of MB's best trip.

I have access to both the HKJC and JRA tote, so I might be able to get some value with different exotic combos based on each (i.e non-JRA horses probably paying much higher on JRA tote and vice versa).

Don’t have JRA ratings, but if you click on any overseas horses running on Sunday on the HKJC website you will get their performance ratings, my rule of thumb for these overseas ratings is to add 6 points to compare with HKR
Jantar Mantar would be 127 HKR
Masquerade Ball would be 134 HKR v Romantic Warrior 136 HKR
Just a loose interpretation to line them up a bit